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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Near normal temps and preciep something we could not buy in the winter..

Nao is already negative also and it looks to last for at least the next 10-14 days.

6z gfs has normal to below normal for the extended range.

Hopefully it's wrong.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Per my wx station here in Monmouth, I recorded 8 days with high temperatures above 70 degrees, with the warmest day on the 13th with 75F.

Also note worthy -- recorded 5 nights above 50F, one of them at 55F and another at 59.6 (60F). That's more incredible to me than the highs, as a 60 degree low on March 22nd is about 30 degrees above normal.

So there was definitely a torch in east central NJ; I think those few days where it was 75-80 in W NJ/PA and 70-75 here may have made the difference wrt trees.

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nycsnow

nycsnow

Posted
Posted

Per my wx station here in Monmouth, I recorded 8 days with high temperatures above 70 degrees, with the warmest day on thhe 13th with 75F.

Also note worthy -- recorded 5 nights above 50F, one of them at 55F and another at 59.6 (60F). That's more incredible to me than the highs, as a 60 degree low on March 22nd is about 30 degrees above normal.

So there was definitely a torch in east central NJ; I think those few days where it was 75-80 in W NJ/PA and 70-75 here may have made the difference wrt trees.

@MetMikeWCVB: How warm has it been? Over 6000 record highs were hit in March 2012 across the U.S. Info courtesy #Ginger_Zee #GMA.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Crazy fall through early spring season here. The freeze this week after the historic early spring bloom

is coming after the October snowstorm with leafed out trees.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING

POSE A BIT OF A PROBLEM IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THAT THE GROWING

SEASON IS UNDERWAY IN MUCH OF OUR REGION, WITH BUDS ON THE FRUIT

TREES AND MANY FLOWERS AND SHRUBS IN BLOOM. WIDESPREAD BELOW

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AND A FREEZE WATCH/WARNING MAY

EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED. WE WILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL

CYCLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL EXTENT OF THE BELOW

FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN

IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE SO THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE DUE

TO RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT TO CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Crazy fall through early spring season here. The freeze this week after the historic early spring bloom

is coming after the October snowstorm with leafed out trees.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING

POSE A BIT OF A PROBLEM IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THAT THE GROWING

SEASON IS UNDERWAY IN MUCH OF OUR REGION, WITH BUDS ON THE FRUIT

TREES AND MANY FLOWERS AND SHRUBS IN BLOOM. WIDESPREAD BELOW

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AND A FREEZE WATCH/WARNING MAY

EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED. WE WILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL

CYCLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL EXTENT OF THE BELOW

FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN

IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE SO THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE DUE

TO RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT TO CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

Very interesting pattern the first 10 days of April -- looks like a fairly strong pos height anomaly develops near Hudson's Bay / immediately east of there, with a large trough near the PAC NW Coast and off the New England coast, ridge in the middle. Whenever you get a ridge in the central US with blocking in the NAO regions at this time of year, look out for wintry weather in the Northeast. I'm becoming increasingly convinced that at the very least, interior sections of the Northeast will see a snowfall sometime in the next couple weeks. The shortening of wavelengths in early spring means a West coast trough and Mid-west ridge is sufficient for deepening off the East Coast. Of course it gets interesting as spring starts...

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Here's my post from a few weeks ago - I'm mentioning this only for referrence, not a forecast. But note a couple of these late season cases, particularly March 15th 1999 and April 1st 1997. Both had a central US ridge with a trough near the West coast. 1999 had west based blocking.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/33125-have-we-seen-the-last-of-the-snow-until-next-winter/

All I'm saying is the pattern in early April may become temporarily favorable for some sort of winter event in the Northeast, which obviously has much better chance of impacting the interior, given climatology at this point.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Here's my post from a few weeks ago - I'm mentioning this only for referrence, not a forecast. But note a couple of these late season cases, particularly March 15th 1999 and April 1st 1997. Both had a central US ridge with a trough near the West coast. 1999 had west based blocking.

http://www.americanw...il-next-winter/

All I'm saying is the pattern in early April may become temporarily favorable for some sort of winter event in the Northeast, which obviously has much better chance of impacting the interior, given climatology at this point.

Again, for comparison purposes to those composites, below is the D 8-10 ECMWF/GFS. Let's see if this general depiction remains on modelling as we approach April

726csj.gif

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Here is the first potential winter event on the GFS

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06168.gif

Anywhere from Central NJ north this time of the year through early/midApril can receive a frozen event - and several times these have occurred after near record highs and weeks of warmth

Here's my post from a few weeks ago - I'm mentioning this only for referrence, not a forecast. But note a couple of these late season cases, particularly March 15th 1999 and April 1st 1997. Both had a central US ridge with a trough near the West coast. 1999 had west based blocking.

http://www.americanw...il-next-winter/

All I'm saying is the pattern in early April may become temporarily favorable for some sort of winter event in the Northeast, which obviously has much better chance of impacting the interior, given climatology at this point.

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easternsnowman

easternsnowman

Posted
Posted

Here is the first potential winter event on the GFS

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06168.gif

Anywhere from Central NJ north this time of the year through early/midApril can receive a frozen event - and several times these have occurred after near record highs and weeks of warmth

I think the phiily burbs can receive snow also, well into April as a matter of fact.

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

Mt. Holly issued a Freeze Watch for most of the counties that they cover.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

328 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ060>062-

067>071-260900-

/O.NEW.KPHI.FZ.A.0001.120327T0700Z-120327T1300Z/

NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-

QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-

WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-

NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-

ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-

SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-

MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...

REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...

DENTON...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...

SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...

CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...

HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...

LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...ALLENTOWN...

BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...

PHILADELPHIA

328 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. EVEN

LOCATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL STRIPS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE

MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND 30.

* TIMING...FROM 3 AM UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY WARM WINTER AND EARLY SPRING, THE

GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN AROUND THE REGION. ANY VEGETATION

SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER A PERIOD OF THREE OR

MORE HOURS WOULD BE AT RISK.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

well the last flakes part they will most likely be correct with because I am not buying the scenario that the 12z Euro has.

you sure ? I said flakes not snowstorm .....with the several cold shots coming in to the east the next 2 - 3 weeks and potential for southern systems getting close enough ........

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