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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

80 (+) degree readings in March NYC/EWR others...

EWR::

3/13 : 86 (1990)

3/16: 82 (1990)

3/18: 80 (2010)

2/20: 85 (1945)

3/22: 80 (1938)

3/23: 82 (1938)

3/27: 84 (1998)

3/28: 87 (1945)

3/29: 89 (1945)

3/30: 86 (1998)

3/31: 85 (1998)

nYc:

3/13: 85 (1990)

3/16: 80 (1990)

3/20: 83 (1945)

3/21: 84 (1921)

3/27 : 83 (1998)

3/28: 84 (1945)

3/29: 86 (1945)

3/30: 82 (1998)

3/31: 86 (1998)

others. will post in a bit

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Earliest 90 degree readings NYC/EWR:

NYC:

4/7: 92 (2010)

4/8: 90 (1991)

4/12: 90 (1977)

4/16: 92 (2002)

4/17: 96 (2002)

4/18: 96 (1976)

EWR:

4/7: 92 (2010)

4/12: 90 (1977)

4/16: 92 (2002)

4/17: 97 (2002)

4/18: 93 (1976, 2002)

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

I've got the link to this post saved should it happen. I wouldn't be surprised if it happens as well; with these conditions probably lasting through next week as well I find it hard to believe that it won't be very warm at least for a day or two.

The 18z DGEX finally backed away from the Friday cold front and is a complete torch going into the weekend. It already was too warm for this week as it didn't handle the cutoff low correctly, although hopefully it's actually onto something this time:

post-1753-0-18733400-1331417452.gif

WTF, 60s/low 70s into Ontario & Quebec.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Absolutely horrible weather.

other than a significant increase in allergies, the mid and long range forecast looks picture perfect aside from any back door or cloud issues. :sizzle: . Enjoy. Luckily traveling most of the last 20 weeks I didn't miss much winter. Its good to be back and it'll be fun to track and observe a nice taste of spring/summer.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Enjoying one last night in the cold air. Temp right now of 27.6F, colder than my low last night of 29 due to calm winds. We do much better on clear/calm nights; urban areas much warmer as CAA has ceased. May even begin warming slightly after midnight.

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Sundog

Sundog

Posted
Posted

At this point I'm rooting for 70's everyday and even 80+.

No chance of snow so why should we suffer in the 40's and 50's?

Bring it.

That's right it's either 40s and 50s or 70s and 80s. How about a nice 65 and sunny? I'm so not rooting for 80 GTFO. 60s and sunny would e much nicer. Once you start sweating because of the heat you'll change your mind about 80 in March. You got a solid 4 months with temps regularly over 80.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

80 (+) degree readings in March NYC/EWR others...

EWR::

3/13 : 86 (1990)

3/16: 82 (1990)

3/18: 80 (2010)

2/20: 85 (1945)

3/22: 80 (1938)

3/23: 82 (1938)

3/27: 84 (1998)

3/28: 87 (1945)

3/29: 89 (1945)

3/30: 86 (1998)

3/31: 85 (1998)

nYc:

3/13: 85 (1990)

3/16: 80 (1990)

3/20: 83 (1945)

3/21: 84 (1921)

3/27 : 83 (1998)

3/28: 84 (1945)

3/29: 86 (1945)

3/30: 82 (1998)

3/31: 86 (1998)

others. will post in a bit

Central Park 80 degree days for March...60 degree minimums...

86 3/29/45

86 3/31/98

85 3/13/90

84 3/21/21

84 3/28/45

83 3/20/45

83 3/27/98

82 3/16/90

82 3/28/90

82 3/28/21

82 3/29/85

82 3/30/98

81 3/39/98

81 3/29/77

80 3/28/98

................

66 3/31/98

63 3/28/98

62 3/29/98

61 3/25/13

61 3/27/49

60 3/29/45

60 3/31/86

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

Not sure how valid the idea is considering it's the NAM's long range, and the back door cold front looks relatively dry, but perhaps the cold front on Tuesday could be accompanied by some isolated storm activity? I quickly scanned through some of the parameters and while I didn't look through all of them yet, those that I did check didn't look too bad, along with 70+ degrees possible during the day:

post-1753-0-10911600-1331438814.gif

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Dark Energy

Dark Energy

Posted
Posted

I don't know about you guys, but I'm goin to walmart later today to pick up a new AC filter. hell, Im going to get 2 so it will last me a season. I get the ones that last 3 months. Yes, I hate the heat and it always seems the early warmth is the worst. The first shot at 70 the other day and my upper level condo was hot as hell.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Some of the model runs are beginning to show even a stronger ridge than we had on 3/13/90

which produced an 86 degree high at Newark. The GFS ensembles along with the OP Euro

were showing this last night. The Euro is off the charts for this time of year actually building

a 582+ dm ridge ridge on top of us along with some GFS members. Just getting the 582 line

into Southern NJ in the past has been good for making it to the mid 80's at the

warmest spots.We also had a similar pattern near the end of the month in 1998.

If a ridge that strong verified here, I think that it could be a new record for March

at least since 1950.

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

Some of the model runs are beginning to show even a stronger ridge than we had on 3/13/90

which produced an 86 degree high at Newark. The GFS ensembles along with the OP Euro

were showing this last night. The Euro is off the charts for this time of year actually building

a 582+ dm heat ridge ridge on top of us along with some GFS members. Just getting the 582 line

into Southern NJ in the past has been good for making it to the mid 80's at the

warmest spots.We also had a similar pattern near the end of the month in 1998.

If a ridge that strong verified here, I think that it could be a new record for March

at least since 1950.

I may be mistaken but the ECM doesn't look too favorable to me regarding any extreme warmth with the ridge actually too far north. With this type of ridge and an air mass, the potential is definitely there for parts of the area to reach the 80s, but it's just a potential at this time. Especially considering that next weekend also doesn't look good for unusual warmth, with week's warmth weakened by the back door cold front and the weekend's warmth apparently likely to be weaker due to cloud cover and scattered showers, there's still enough factors that could go against NYC passing 75 degrees for parts of, if not even most of next week, such as any back door cold front, cutoffs, unfavorable ridge, ect. There's definitely potential here, but while I would think that with such a large ridge, we would be able to at the very least get a warm day or two, if not more, it still has enough time to change and is still not a near lock for an absolute near-historic torch for the area.

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Wxoutlooksblog

Wxoutlooksblog

Posted
Posted

I may be mistaken but the ECM doesn't look too favorable to me regarding any extreme warmth with the ridge actually too far north. With this type of ridge and an air mass, the potential is definitely there for parts of the area to reach the 80s, but it's just a potential at this time. Especially considering that next weekend also doesn't look good for unusual warmth, with week's warmth weakened by the back door cold front and the weekend's warmth apparently likely to be weaker due to cloud cover and scattered showers, there's still enough factors that could go against NYC passing 75 degrees for parts of, if not even most of next week, such as any back door cold front, cutoffs, unfavorable ridge, ect. There's definitely potential here, but while I would think that with such a large ridge, we would be able to at the very least get a warm day or two, if not more, it still has enough time to change and is still not a near lock for an absolute near-historic torch for the area.

There are a few LPS moving quickly west to east across southern Canada and the northern tier of the CONUS and they will help to drag backdoor fronts south behind them from time to time. But as they exit into the north Atlantic, the massive ridge over most of the eastern US will flex its muscle and some record-breaking warm temperatures are definitely a good possibility. In fact, with the pattern continuing this way for the long-term, it is quite possible that we end up having had one of the warmest Marchs' on record in the NYC area.

WX/PT

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Agree. As I said a few days ago, MOS was underdone by several degrees for Mon-tues. Both days should be low 70s for most places away from the immediate coast, and I could see EWR at 73-74 on Tuesday. Also think Thursday will be cooler than Wed, as the sfc flow is still offshore for the latter. Winds look E/SELY veering to SLY from Thurs-Fri. Maybe some early season warm frontal convection on Sat.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

SSTs are gonna jump big time over the next two weeks. Last year we saw a rapid jump up to the 50s in mid April with sustained 70s/80s for a period. RIght now they have been holding tight in the 45-46F range, but I could see them topping 50 by the end of next week.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Today's warm enough for me. Top 10 day out there, gorgeous. Walking around with shorts and a t-shirt, and it actually feels hot when the wind lightens up. Temp is 57. If this is how it feels now, 70-80's going to feel like summer.

First sun burn of the year today, definitely my earliest ever.

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