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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
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Yeah that pic looks like about the 3rd week of April around these parts.

We're getting there here in SE PA. Some of the larger forest trees I posted earlier this week are very close to bursting. I'll be in Monmouth tomorrow, I'm interested to see how it looks there vs PA.

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Sundog

Sundog

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Yeah that pic looks like about the 3rd week of April around these parts.

We're getting there here in SE PA. Some of the larger forest trees I posted earlier this week are very close to bursting. I'll be in Monmouth tomorrow, I'm interested to see how it looks there vs PA.

I haven't seen London Plane Trees ready to leaf out this early since the 90's spell in April 2002, and that was almost 3 weeks later than now! Pretty insane.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
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6z NAM has middle to upper 70s across this afternoon. We are already starting out 60-65Faround NYC, more sunshine than previous days. I won't be surprised, if we are just as warm yesterday:

JFK is at 63, with north wind 5mph at 8am. Will probably beat their high 66, yesterday.

post-187-0-82322600-1332504010.gif

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bluewave

bluewave

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When's the last time we saw a map like that for cooler than normal temps?

December 1989.

The average daily temperature at Burlington, Vermont changed abruptly on 31 December 1989, bringing to an end the prolonged significantly below normal stretch observed during the entire month to that point (Fig. 10). The shift in the temperature regime couldn't have been more dramatic. The mean temperature of 7.5F for December 1989 was a remarkable 17.3F below the 1971-2000 climatological average for December, while the mean of 29.8F was 11.8F above the 1971-2000 climatological average for January.

http://www.erh.noaa....events/Dec1989/

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Cfa

Cfa

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I haven't seen London Plane Trees ready to leaf out this early since the 90's spell in April 2002, and that was almost 3 weeks later than now! Pretty insane.

They haven't been doing much over here, the buds are slowly increasing in size though.

Almost everything else has large buds, small leaves, or flowers, but being that the London Plane Tree is by far the most common tree near me it doesn't look like we've made much progress.

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Sundog

Sundog

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They haven't been doing much over here, the buds are slowly increasing in size though.

Almost everything else has large buds, small leaves, or flowers, but being that the London Plane Tree is by far the most common tree near me it doesn't look like we've made much progress.

Your cooler temps have made a difference. They are not exactly exploding here either but you can see tiny little green things trying to peak out of the bud. Never seen that in March, especially for that species. They always take forever.

I've seen the same on Oaks too, another species that takes its time. I'm sure in NJ they are even farther ahead leafing out.

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JERSEYSNOWROB

JERSEYSNOWROB

Posted
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Yeah that pic looks like about the 3rd week of April around these parts.

We're getting there here in SE PA. Some of the larger forest trees I posted earlier this week are very close to bursting. I'll be in Monmouth tomorrow, I'm interested to see how it looks there vs PA.

Purple Azalea bushes are just about full bloom here now!! I may also need to cut my lawn in a couple weeks already too after the fertilizer went down 2 weeks ago. My first cut last year was in early May I believe. Amazing.

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jm1220

jm1220

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Your cooler temps have made a difference. They are not exactly exploding here either but you can see tiny little green things trying to peak out of the bud. Never seen that in March, especially for that species. They always take forever.

I've seen the same on Oaks too, another species that takes its time. I'm sure in NJ they are even farther ahead leafing out.

Trees in Long Beach are significantly less progressed than trees here in Midtown. We have a flowering tree in front of my house, and the buds are opening up but the same trees in Manhattan are already flowered out.

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Jefflaw77

Jefflaw77

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This is the most unreal weather in decades.... While many locations haven't hit the 80's this week, the low temps and morning temps blow anything I've ever seen out of the water, for this time of the year..

These low temps for mid/late march and morning temps are early June like.. or later? It's just so unreal.. I can't get over it.. Plus these wind directions would usually dicate cooler temps.. It's all so wacky!

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Isotherm

Isotherm

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Purple Azalea bushes are just about full bloom here now!! I may also need to cut my lawn in a couple weeks already too after the fertilizer went down 2 weeks ago. My first cut last year was in early May I believe. Amazing.

Yeah I've been hearing that many fertilized lawns already need a cut. Truly a sick, sick pattern. And by sick, I mean sick in a bad way. Bugs are out like it's mid May and the landscape looks like the end of April w/ a ton of weeds and dandelions popping.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

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I remember how out of whack the fall of 2007 and spring of 2010 seemed and this blows them both out of the water. I mean we're talking at least 3 to 4 weeks early with regarding to flowers, trees, grass, bug, weeds etc. I wonder if it does manage to get chillly for a couple weeks in early to mid april if it will halt the progression of everything.

Yeah I've been hearing that many fertilized lawns already need a cut. Truly a sick, sick pattern. And by sick, I mean sick in a bad way. Bugs are out like it's mid May and the landscape looks like the end of April w/ a ton of weeds and dandelions popping.

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jm1220

jm1220

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Yeah I've been hearing that many fertilized lawns already need a cut. Truly a sick, sick pattern. And by sick, I mean sick in a bad way. Bugs are out like it's mid May and the landscape looks like the end of April w/ a ton of weeds and dandelions popping.

Might be fun to watch if we get another freeze before the end. The latest DGEX showed a cold night or two coming up next week where we could hit 20s once more. Could be damaging to some of the vegetation that's sprouted now.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

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Might be fun to watch if we get another freeze before the end. The latest DGEX showed a cold night or two coming up next week where we could hit 20s once more. Could be damaging to some of the vegetation that's sprouted now.

Yeah we should get at least a couple cold shots swing through, and at this time of year, it's still early enough for everyone outside of NYC to drop below freezing. I think NYC will come close early next week, but probably stay in the mid/upper 30s for a low. The GFS has been fairly insistent on producing some sort of snow event for the interior Northeast in the first week of April. I could definitely see that happen given the shortening wavelengths and current tropical forcing.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

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Posted

Very potent MJO wave, which phase 7 in April correlates to a chilly pattern in the East. Unfortunately other teleconnectors aren't favorable for this to really go to town, so rather than a well below normal early April, it'll be a back and forth near-normal type regime. First week or two of April certainly doesn't look blowtorch though; I can't say the same about the second half.

ws3er.gif

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bluewave

bluewave

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Yeah we should get at least a couple cold shots swing through, and at this time of year, it's still early enough for everyone outside of NYC to drop below freezing. I think NYC will come close early next week, but probably stay in the mid/upper 30s for a low. The GFS has been fairly insistent on producing some sort of snow event for the interior Northeast in the first week of April. I could definitely see that happen given the shortening wavelengths and current tropical forcing.

Yeah, the Euro 2 m temps bring the 32 line just NW of the City Monday Night. Anything in the 30's will feel like a big shock

after this hstoric early warmth. It's rough for the farmers and gardeners that this is happening so soon after the October

snowstorm with the leafed out trees.

NOTE FOR AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO

FALL AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES MON NIGHT. THEN MORE

WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF

URBAN CENTERS UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS AS HIGH PRESSURE

BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

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uofmiami

uofmiami

Posted
Posted

Very potent MJO wave, which phase 7 in April correlates to a chilly pattern in the East. Unfortunately other teleconnectors aren't favorable for this to really go to town, so rather than a well below normal early April, it'll be a back and forth near-normal type regime. First week or two of April certainly doesn't look blowtorch though; I can't say the same about the second half.

ws3er.gif

Per this post http://www.americanw...ost__p__1453879 MJO Phase 7 in FMA is not as cold a phase as it is during DJF period, FWIW!

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
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Yeah it does look unusual to see 76/78 degree temps in March on East and NE winds

The problem with the NE winds not cooling is that there's no cold air at the source of the wind direction. Many areas in Central New England were near or above 80 the past couple days. The NE wind is actually filtering more warm air down!

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