March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[Ericjcrash]

Up to 68, 8 degrees in 25 min and still racing.

[bluewave]

It would be if the water wouldn't induce hypothermia.

A quick dip at Sandy Hook is about as warm as mid- May would normally be. Although I don't like to go in until

we hit the upper 60's and 70's.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sdhn4

[jm1220]

A quick dip at Sandy Hook is about as warm as mid- May would normally be. Although I don't like to go in until

we hit the upper 60's and 70's.

http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=sdhn4

Waters are warming up fast, that's for sure. Strangely enough, waters cool down due to upwelling when we have NW wind induced hot days here on the coast. Waters warm up faster when we have continuous onshore flows.

[bluewave]

Waters are warming up fast, that's for sure. Strangely enough, waters cool down due to upwelling when we have NW wind induced hot days here on the coast. Waters warm up faster when we have continuous onshore flows.

The LB Polar Bears didn't get much of a challenge this winter. The 55 at Sandy Hook is really early.

[jm1220]

The LB Polar Bears didn't get much of a challenge this winter. The 55 at Sandy Hook is really early.

This year shouldn't even count (I was in Florida this year for it). The last two were actually cold.

[bluewave]

This year shouldn't even count (I was in Florida this year for it). The last two were actually cold.

I got stuck in one of the worst traffic jams in LB history when I tried to drive to the store while they were all leaving the beach a few years ago.

[uncle W]

still cloudy here but it's ngetting brighter...We are going to need a good west wind to reach 80...

[NorEaster27]

so how much rain do we get this weekend? quarter of an inch?

[Cfa]

It cleared up but there's haze in the distance.

I'm at 65.5°F

[Analog96]

so how much rain do we get this weekend? quarter of an inch?

In the first hour and a half on Saturday maybe.

[Brian5671]

so how much rain do we get this weekend? quarter of an inch?

if that. I'd take the under.

[Zir0b]

12z NAM suggests 70's continuing through the end of its run, into Sunday

[Weathergun]

SSTs in 50-54F, almost along the entire Jersey shore now:

[TheTrials]

No surprise the QPF bomb the euro showed us isn't going to happen. Dry begets dry.

[Brian5671]

No surprise the QPF bomb the euro showed us isn't going to happen. Dry begets dry.

the one for the 31st that the SNE guys were salivating over?

[TheTrials]

the one for the 31st that the SNE guys were salivating over?

no, the one AG3 predicted a few days ago. Gone.

[Brian5671]

no, the one AG3 predicted a few days ago. Gone.

the one on the 31st will bite the dust too-it will probably be 55-65 regionwide. Torch begets torch

[ag3]

12z NAM for tomorrow:

[Isotherm]

Nice cool shot early next week on the GFS - most areas would have a sub freezing night Monday. Phase 7 MJO promotes some cooling the Northeast, though with most other teleconnectors unfavorable, it will be in and out.

[pazzo83]

No surprise the QPF bomb the euro showed us isn't going to happen. Dry begets dry.

This is going to start to become a serious issue if this continues for a couple months.

[pazzo83]

Mid 70s in midtown right now. A hazy mid June early afternoon. In March.

[bluewave]

No surprise the QPF bomb the euro showed us isn't going to happen. Dry begets dry.

Yeah,that's why all the models had a chance of storms last week with that front an it came through dry.

[bluewave]

Nice cool shot early next week on the GFS - most areas would have a sub freezing night Monday. Phase 7 MJO promotes some cooling the Northeast, though with most other teleconnectors unfavorable, it will be in and out.

The GFS will probably push the freeze line further back into the interior as we get closer.

I don't see anything below 32 for NYC and the shore with this one.

[pazzo83]

The GFS will probably push the freeze line further back into the interior as we get closer.

I don't see anything below 32 for NYC and the shore with this one.

NYC likely saw it's last sub-freezing temp on March 10th. If that holds that has got to be one of the earliest last freezes on record.

[TheTrials]

the cold push will never materialize.

[bluewave]

NYC likely saw it's last sub-freezing temp on March 10th. If that holds that has got to be one of the earliest last freezes on record.

What a difference a year makes.

[Snow_Miser]

Clouds started rapidly thinning out at around 10 am by my location in Central New Jersey. Now there are a few cumulus clouds off to my northwest, but the Sun is shining quite strongly now. Can we reach 80 here?

[Isotherm]

The GFS will probably push the freeze line further back into the interior as we get closer.

I don't see anything below 32 for NYC and the shore with this one.

Even if NYC doesn't get to freezing - this will feel arctic compared to now. 30mph gusts with temps in the 30s:

It'll be transient, but in terms of magnitude, a brief shot of cold air seems reasonable given the strong MJO wave.

[Brian5671]

the cold push will never materialize.

Welcome to the dark side--better late than never

[TheTrials]

Welcome to the dark side--better late than never

I'll never join you.