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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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supermeh

supermeh

Posted
Posted

still pretty cloudy over here, but temp still managed to climb up to 67.. Even a half hour to an hour of late afternoon sun should push me up a good 5 degrees or so... all in all, can't complain... feels nice out there today.

Cloudy all day here as well. Feels very muggy out.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
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Even with the Clouds- it's so nice out for March 21... And it may warm up again next week! wow.. Just wow... Maybe we'll be swimming by Mid April!

In mid April, we might be wishing it was mid March again. These extremes do even themselves out in the long term even though we are clearly experiencing a global warming regime. It's very possible that April completely switches and it actually colder than March given how warm it's been this month.

And warm up next week will not be sustained, it'll be more typical with a day or two or warmth and then back to normal because the ridge will be broken down.

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Jefflaw77

Jefflaw77

Posted
Posted

I don't know about you guys, but even if it only gets into the "70's" one day next week, if it's from 55-62 for the foreseeable future... I'm fine w/ that... Let me know when below normal temps are possible..

low to mid 40's and rain will be miserable if that comes to fruition!

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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In mid April, we might be wishing it was mid March again. These extremes do even themselves out in the long term even though we are clearly experiencing a global warming regime. It's very possible that April completely switches and it actually colder than March given how warm it's been this month.

And warm up next week will not be sustained, it'll be more typical with a day or two or warmth and then back to normal because the ridge will be broken down.

I don't really see anything but transient cool downs in an overall warmer than normal pattern.

NYC has a shot at continuing it's above normal month streak right through the summer.

Check out how little cold air there has been over North America since last fall.

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mattinpa

mattinpa

Posted
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I don't really see anything but transient cool downs in an overall warmer than normal pattern.

NYC has a shot at continuing it's above normal month streak right through the summer.

Check out how little cold air there has been over North America since last fall.

Verbatim, the GFS has had a couple warmer days followed by cooler periods. I'd be fine with that as I'm not ready for summer.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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Verbatim, the GFS has had a couple warmer days followed by cooler periods. I'd be fine with that as I'm not ready for summer.

Count on the cooler periods under performing and the warmer ones over performing in this type of pattern.

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

Not much luck for NAM's cloud cover forecast today... the E-wall maps showed the cloud cover mostly burning off by 18z, but it's still stuck in place, with temperatures near 70 degrees, below the forecast high. It'll be interesting to see if tomorrow ends up following the forecasts or ending up cloudier than expected again; the NAM has near 80 degrees in NE NJ, with cloud cover burning off by 14z (10 AM).

post-1753-0-65020200-1332358570.gif

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

SOI values continue to run on the positive side, with dailies in the the 10-12 range, and the latest monthly still above 0. After a major downturn last month, atmospheric angular momentum has become less negative and is actually a bit on the positive side now (which indicates a weakening of the La Nina atmospheric state). However, with SOI still solidly positive and SSTA showing no signs of rapidly warming just yet, the La Nina base state overall should persist IMO for at least the next month. That in conjunction with the fairly stable northern annular mode and NAO (both of which show no signs of tanking) could allow the above normal temp regime to continue. With that being said, tropical forcing moves out of the "torch phases" and into the cooler phases over the next couple weeks, so there's no doubt in my mind we'll see some chillier air back into the Northeats for early April. The thing is, it'll feel arctic compared to our current weather, but still normal to above on the whole (generally 50s for highs). I'm going to write up a longer post soon on the pattern going into spring, but for now, I see nothing pointing towards a colder than normal April.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
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Looks like about a 10 degree temp bust for many parts of the region due to the low level moisture in the lower boundary layer hanging tough. KBML is at 61F with a fcst high in the low 70s today. Tomorrow could be cloudy along the coastal mid atlantic but I think our area should clear out fine. Sfc flow is fairly light though, so sea breezes are likely and locations within 10 miles of the ocean probably won't break 70.

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mattinpa

mattinpa

Posted
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Yep, love the folks who have been saying, enjoy this, it's gonna get cold! And where exactly is the cold air going to come from????? while we won't be +20-+30, we'll still be +5-+15.

I really don't think this warmth lasts, and we'll probably see average periods. The models are advertising cold fronts, which is very feasible.

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NEXtreme

NEXtreme

Posted
Posted

Yep, love the folks who have been saying, enjoy this, it's gonna get cold! And where exactly is the cold air going to come from????? while we won't be +20-+30, we'll still be +5-+15.

The only place on earth thats been warm has been the USA... the rest of the planet is colder then normal for March...so wheres the heat gonna come from?

http://policlimate.c...sr_t2m_anom.pngncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Looks like the overall warmer than normal pattern should linger. The warmth wont be as strong as the last week/10 days but there could be some strong warmth for a day or two followed by closer to normal to round out overall warm the next week to 10 days.

test8.gif

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Belmar NJ is currently the coolest location on the east coast at 55F per my quick glance, save for Cape Cod. Temps even in Bar Harbor/downeast Maine are slightly warmer than coastal NJ -- that shows you that type of pattern we're in. Far reaching torch, and the normal S-N temp gradient is out the window.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

Socked in with the thickest fog I've seen in a while here in NE NJ. Visibility is definitely <1/8 mile. KEWR reporting 0.0 visibility as of 11PM. Hopefully it clears out quick tomorrow morning.

Same here on the south shore of Long Islsnd, I have never seen fog this thick.

Looks like the fog I saw in Ireland.

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