March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[blizzardof09]

It was really foggy this morning on Long Island.

This morning was probably the lightest the fog was in days. Monday and tuesday morning was probably the densest fog ive seen in years.

[bluewave]

This morning was probably the lightest the fog was in days. Monday and tuesday morning was probably the densest fog ive seen in years.

Yesterday was one of the densest fogs here that I have seen in years.

METAR KJFK 201051Z 10003KT 0SM R04R/1000V1400FT FG VV002 12/11 A3030 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP260 T01170106

[ag3]

Visibility along the LI sound and coastal Queens is pretty much zero right now.

The fog isnt as thick on land this morning, but along the coast, its as thick as it can be.

[Allsnow]

Visibility along the LI sound and coastal Queens is pretty much zero right now.

The fog isnt as thick on land this morning, but along the coast, its as thick as it can be.

Do u have output for rain this weekend? Thanks

[ag3]

Do u have output for rain this weekend? Thanks

0z euro has rain at varying intensity from Sunday mid-day until Monday afternoon. About .75" of qpf.

0z GGEM is very similar to the euro with timing and amounts.

The GFS bumped south a bit and only skims the area with precip from the cutoff and keeps the heaviest stuff in south Jersey and south of there.

[nycsnow]

0z euro has rain at varying intensity from Sunday mid-day until Monday afternoon. About .75" of qpf.

0z GGEM is very similar to the euro with timing and amounts.

The GFS bumped south a bit and only skims the area with precip from the cutoff and keeps the heaviest stuff in south Jersey and south of there.

I like the gfs

[Weathergun]

Visibility along the LI sound and coastal Queens is pretty much zero right now.

The fog isnt as thick on land this morning, but along the coast, its as thick as it can be.

Seeing more reports of drizzle this morning with the fog, as well.

[bluewave]

0z euro has rain at varying intensity from Sunday mid-day until Monday afternoon. About .75" of qpf.

0z GGEM is very similar to the euro with timing and amounts.

The GFS bumped south a bit and only skims the area with precip from the cutoff and keeps the heaviest stuff in south Jersey and south of there.

It will be interesting to see if the models back off as we get closer like they have recently.

NYC only has .50 for March so far.

[ag3]

It will be interesting to see if the models back off as we get closer like they have recently.

NYC only has .50 for March so far.

I think models are underestimating the bullseye amounts as this is a slow moving cutoff. Someone should get a healthy dose of rain from this.

Position of the cutoff is obviously key to that.

[bluewave]

I think models are underestimating the bullseye amounts as this is a slow moving cutoff. Someone should get a healthy dose of rain from this.

Position of the cutoff is obviously key to that.

It would be funny if it ends up getting suppressed like several of the winter snows did.

[NorEaster27]

where is the sun?

[LocoAko]

Really socked in with clouds today. Definitely not burning off as quickly as they did on past mornings.

[SACRUS]

where is the sun?

clouds hanging tougher today than yesterday but suspect we'll get into the sun in the next couple of hours.

[MJO812]

58 and cloudy right now.

[forkyfork]

clouds hanging tougher today than yesterday but suspect we'll get into the sun in the next couple of hours.

the 12z nam shows clearing by 18z with 70s for almost all of us

[stormwarn]

we had a lot of rain and snow last year, reservoirs are not going to be hurting right now and water tables are probably still high, but give it a few more months like this and that changes quickly, especially with farming season beginning soon.

Fact is, its dry right now and should stay this way long term so its something to keep an eye on.

Good post.

NJ Drought is reporting below normal steam flow and ground water levels for portions of NJ. Yes, reservoir levels are ok now, but remember, there are over 16 million people between NJ and NYC alone. Once people being to fill pools and turn on their lawn sprinklers, those levels can drop rapidly. I've seen it happen here many times over the past 20 years.

[Analog96]

Good post.

NJ Drought is reporting below normal steam flow and ground water levels for portions of NJ. Yes, reservoir levels are ok now, but remember, there are over 16 million people between NJ and NYC alone. Once people being to fill pools and turn on their lawn sprinklers, those levels can drop rapidly. I've seen it happen here many times over the past 20 years.

And don't forget, as temperatures go up, so does evaporation. However, if we start to see some wetter weather, the whole drought issue could still be avoided.

[Isotherm]

60F/OVC right now. I've seen colder July mornings

[SACRUS]

60F/OVC right now. I've seen colder July mornings

This is reminiscent of the southern california June Gloom in March.

[stormwarn]

1965 really stands out among the rest. I can remember all the brown lawns back in 8/95 and 7/99.

Yes, I too remember that and the 50 gallons per person per day law.

Drought Article from Newspaper

[weathermedic]

This is reminiscent of the southern california June Gloom in March.

Was thinking the exact same thing, having lived in northern San Diego county for 5 years.

[SACRUS]

Was thinking the exact same thing, having lived in northern San Diego county for 5 years.

I spent a lot of time there in the last few years as well. Starting to see mroe breaks in the clouds now. finally. I think by 1 / 2 we should be into more sun than clouds.

[Brian5671]

going to be more cloudiness than forecast-looks like a steady northward plume of moisture from the storm over VA.

[Weathergun]

This was from Upton at 10:48am:

12Z OKX SOUNDING INDICATING VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE SLIGHTLY

DEEPER THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS ALONG WITH 06Z MODEL

SOUNDINGS POINTS TO A SLOWER CLEARING TODAY...WITH PERHAPS COASTAL

LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BE

CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD SHIELD BEGINS TO

ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED

DOWN A FEW DEGREES SHOULD CLEARING NOT BEGIN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF

HOURS.

[Zir0b]

Back into the 70s by the middle of next week after the weekend "cool down"

[Weathergun]

Some breaks in clouds now showing up over NE NJ and LI. Temps are middle 60s around NYC. Still time to get into 70s:

[earthlight]

Sun trying hard to come out here

[Weathergun]

Central and Eastern LI is reporting more sunshine. Shirley is up to 70 degrees.

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

FARMINGDALE NOT AVBL

ISLIP PTSUNNY 69 58 67 VRB3 30.33F

SHIRLEY PTSUNNY 70 58 65 S8 30.35F

WESTHAMPTON MOSUNNY 67 57 70 SE6 30.37S

MONTAUK POINT N/A 65 56 72 VRB3 30.37F

[Brian5671]

Cleared out very suddenly here...71

[tornadojay]

still pretty cloudy over here, but temp still managed to climb up to 67.. Even a half hour to an hour of late afternoon sun should push me up a good 5 degrees or so... all in all, can't complain... feels nice out there today.