March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[Allsnow]

It has been a long time since i've seen such +anomalies modeled literally for 384 hrs

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

I just hope the rubber band does not snap as we go into april and may....my fear is this happens...

[Snow_Miser]

It actually looks a little colder going into Wednesday night/Thursday,

I was going off of the NCEP graphics for the 850 mb temperatures for the mid week BDCF. The 0C 850 mb temperatures are definitely more north than the 00z run.

[SquatchinNY]

I just hope the rubber band does not snap as we go into april and may....my fear is this happens...

What do you mean? That it goes all out crazy warm?

[bluewave]

This is the warmest run of the GFS that I have seen so far.

[Isotherm]

What do you mean? That it goes all out crazy warm?

Why would he fear that in April when crazy warmth is happening now and has been happening for the past 2 years...

[Isotherm]

This is the warmest run of the GFS that I have seen so far.

That's widespread low 80s with scattered mid 80s taken verbatim.

[Allsnow]

I just hope the rubber band does not snap as we go into april and may....my fear is this happens...

Just that we go into april or may and have a cooler/rainy pattern....im sure we get a week or two stretch with crappy weather like every spring....but my fear is longer then that.....2010 we torch and never stop.....very early leaf out and green up.....so it does not mean my fear will happen

[earthlight]

The NAM is actually pretty close to 70 on Monday too....looks like 68 in NYC

[Sundog]

80s in March are vomit worthy. Move to Florida.

[pazzo83]

I just hope the rubber band does not snap as we go into april and may....my fear is this happens...

Yep, at some point this will end. Let's hope we get through spring/summer and the rubberband snaps just in time for next winter.

[bluewave]

That's widespread low 80s with scattered mid 80s taken verbatim.

Yeah, I think the last mid 80's during March here were back in 98 and that was after a torch winter also.

http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/impacts/Impacts_03-98.html

[pazzo83]

There is one barrier we have yet to break in March: 90F. Might as well go big here.

[Allsnow]

Yep, at some point this will end. Let's hope we get through spring/summer and the rubberband snaps just in time for next winter.

Agree 100%....perhaps a 2002 type snap....but until then lets torch...up up we go!

[bluewave]

There is one barrier we have yet to break in March: 90F. Might as well go big here.

Newark came really close back on 3/29/45.

3/29 89 in 1945

[pazzo83]

Newark came really close back on 3/29/45.

3/29 89 in 1945

From the perspective of time, NYC has come really close as well. In 2010 the park hit 92 on just the 7th day of April.

[earthlight]

Slightly off topic...but this is going to be really awesome...I can't wait to step outside in shorts and a t shirt and play baseball next week.

[bluewave]

From the perspective of time, NYC has come really close as well. In 2010 the park hit 92 on just the 7th day of April.

That was epic with the slug of 20C 850"s off the MA that day.

[Brian5671]

80s in March are vomit worthy. Move to Florida.

how about 90?

[Isotherm]

Yeah, I think the last mid 80's during March here were back in 98 and that was after a torch winter also.

http://www.nrcc.corn...acts_03-98.html

Incredible.

Probably won't be a good analog for this year though - warmth will be much more expansive in the CONUS compared to 98.

March so far:

[Isotherm]

The magnitude of positive temp departures for the past 4 months is truly remarkable.

[Isotherm]

1956-57 was a torch weak nina winter in the East, reversed to neutral by spring 1957 and weak nino by summer 1957.

Problem is it turned quite cold for the South in March 1957, so it loses credibility as an analog. Also the Nino coming on was much stronger than what we're likely to see this spring/summer. Very difficult to find analogs for the past 5 month period.

[uncle W]

I can remember some things from the 1956-57 winter...the very cold January and February 1st snowstorm...The April snowstorm...It would be funny to see an April snowstorm after the none winter we are having...

[mattinpa]

Doubt with those 850s that we hit 90, but 80s are certainly in reach. Since our bad winter appears over, might as well root for 70s and even 80 is ok.

[Weathergun]

Next week's warmth looks to be surpassed by the warmth the following week. 12z GEFS has 582dm heat ridge over Lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeast by 240hr. 850mb temps 10C or higher into Southern New England:

[pazzo83]

We could be almost fully leafed out by the end of the month. That is completely insane.

[pazzo83]

LMAO, this zone forecast for DC is beyond lol-worthy:

Monday Partly sunny in the morning...then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

Monday Night Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s.

Tuesday Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s.

Tuesday Night Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.

Wednesday Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.

Wednesday Night Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s.

Thursday Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.

Thursday Night Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s.

Friday Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 70s.

What month is it again?

[bluewave]

Incredible.

Probably won't be a good analog for this year though - warmth will be much more expansive in the CONUS compared to 98.

March so far:

It will probably be the warmest March that we have seen since 1945 if the models are correct.

NYC needs a +8.7 for the new March record.

[NYCSuburbs]

Next week's warmth looks to be surpassed by the warmth the following week. 12z GEFS has 582dm heat ridge over Lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeast by 240hr. 850mb temps 10C or higher into Southern New England:

There could still be some relatively colder (yet still warmer than average) temperatures left over the region, especially if there is rain over the region as at least currently modeled and/or another back door cold front, so I'd think that the highest temperature departures focus over the Great Lakes region and near the central US with warmth in NYC but not a complete torch, although with such a large ridge over the East Coast, it would not surprise me if at the very least 1-3 days, if not more, could end up above the mid 70s for highs after next weekend.

[Analog96]

There could still be some relatively colder (yet still warmer than average) temperatures left over the region, especially if there is rain over the region as at least currently modeled and/or another back door cold front, so I'd think that the highest temperature departures focus over the Great Lakes region and near the central US with warmth in NYC but not a complete torch, although with such a large ridge over the East Coast, it would not surprise me if at the very least 1-3 days, if not more, could end up above the mid 70s for highs after next weekend.

Mark these words down right now, so that we can bump when it happens. EWR will get to 85 or higher for at least one day in the Mar 18-22 time frame.

[NYCSuburbs]

Mark these words down right now, so that we can bump when it happens. EWR will get to 85 or higher for at least one day in the Mar 18-22 time frame.

I've got the link to this post saved should it happen. I wouldn't be surprised if it happens as well; with these conditions probably lasting through next week as well I find it hard to believe that it won't be very warm at least for a day or two.

The 18z DGEX finally backed away from the Friday cold front and is a complete torch going into the weekend. It already was too warm for this week as it didn't handle the cutoff low correctly, although hopefully it's actually onto something this time: