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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

With absolutely no wind, temps are going back up in midtown.

And of course the park is down another 2 degrees to 62F. Nearest PWS to me is pushing back towards 66F. Looks like this will be another one of those nights where the park is a good 4-6 degrees cooler than areas immediately to its South, East, or West (until you get to within one block of the East or Hudson rivers).

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Sundog

Sundog

Posted
Posted

And of course the park is down another 2 degrees to 62F. Nearest PWS to me is pushing back towards 66F. Looks like this will be another one of those nights where the park is a good 4-6 degrees cooler than areas immediately to its South, East, or West (until you get to within one block of the East or Hudson rivers).

The city sucks when there's big heat. I was in Astoria at 2am several years back during a hot stretch and I was sweating just sitting in my seat outside. Not a breath of wind. I remember going home and seeing LGA still had a heat index in the mid 90s.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
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The city sucks when there's big heat. I was in Astoria at 2am several years back during a hot stretch and I was sweating just sitting in my seat outside. Not a breath of wind. I remember going home and seeing LGA still had a heat index in the mid 90s.

It was a nice cool breeze running along the East river (btw right now is absolutely amazing running weather), but as soon as I was a block in from the river the air was as stagnant as you will find it this time a year. Not a puff of wind.

I've noticed that area of Queens (Astoria, LIC etc) stays really warm at night as well, pretty much like Manhattan.

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tornadojay

tornadojay

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Not even with a due west wind?

and does 85 mean near 90 to you?

Looks like 850's maybe at best will be 12 - 13C on Thursday... You'd have to mix down from quite a bit higher and/or have some warming due to downsloping. Try it on a skew-t diagram and you'll see what I mean.. Take 12C from 850 mb down dry adiabatically down to the surface.. You get a max-max of about 85 degrees or so. That is the highest possible temp you would achieve assuming you fully mix from that height, have full sun, and break the morning inversion. To realistically start talking about 90, you'd need to have 850's exceeding 15C, ideally closer to about 17C.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

Looks like 850's maybe at best will be 12 - 13C on Thursday... You'd have to mix down from quite a bit higher and/or have some warming due to downsloping. Try it on a skew-t diagram and you'll see what I mean.. Take 12C from 850 mb down dry adiabatically down to the surface.. You get a max-max of about 85 degrees or so. That is the highest possible temp you would achieve assuming you fully mix from that height, have full sun, and break the morning inversion. To realistically start talking about 90, you'd need to have 850's exceeding 15C, ideally closer to about 17C.

I always thought you would need 850's between 13C and 15C?

I never thought about the mixing, LOL.

Thanks for the help.

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tornadojay

tornadojay

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I always thought you would need 850's between 13C and 15C?

I never thought about the mixing, LOL.

Thanks for the help.

No problem... it definitely depends on other factors besides just 850 temps... wind direction and speed definitely have a lot to do with it. You can definitely tack on extra degrees with the right wind direction... and of course the mixing depth is extremely critical. Sometimes it's a bit tough on these days where we get strong inversions in the morning to fully mix out, but we've been doing fairly well.

If you're not too familiar with working with a skew T, as a rule of thumb, you can take the afternoon 850 temp and basically add about 15 celcius degrees to that.. that will give you your max-max temp, which is basically the highest temp you could reach if you mix from 850 mb that day. Now, if you get a really good downsloping wind that day, you could tack on maybe 3-5 degrees to that max-max. At 15C, you can get yourself to about 86-87. 17C definitely could put you over the top.

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

Looks like tomorrow could be a short range (2 day) NAM temperature bust... At first it barely even had 60 degrees for Tuesday, now it's going with close to 75 degrees. Other than those two days with the back door cold front, it seems that almost day was at least slightly warmer than expected.

post-1753-0-53018700-1332209310.png

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

Looks like tomorrow could be a short range (2 day) NAM temperature bust... At first it barely even had 60 degrees for Tuesday, now it's going with close to 75 degrees. Other than those two days with the back door cold front, it seems that almost day was at least slightly warmer than expected.

post-1753-0-53018700-1332209310.png

80+ Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, AND Friday? Why not...

The low tonight in the city should be in the 58-60F range.

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

80+ Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, AND Friday? Why not...

The low tonight in the city should be in the 58-60F range.

I would think most areas are unlikely to hit 80 tomorrow. The low level winds are southeast, albeit light, so I guess some areas could get into the middle 70's. But I think the combination of some fog/low clouds early and an early seabreeze by afternoon should keep most major reporting stations away from 80 for sure.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
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It does smell like it. Noticed that tonight.

We live in a world where u can pay bills off ur phone....i expect a picture today from u or pazzo of this huge foliage eruption...and no...not one blooming cherry tree....u guys make it sound like mid summer

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Scotty Lightning

Scotty Lightning

Posted
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This is a hard one... find the border between Upton and Taunton's forecast areas :lol:

In cases like this it could end up as a compromise IMO, maybe cooler in Taunton's southern areas and warmer in Upton's northern areas for Thursday.

post-1753-0-76543600-1332212740.png

That is valid for 8pm on Thursday-with a south wind I would see a sea breeze pushing inland so that would actually verify regardless of what WFO that was for.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
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Visibilities are 0 to .2 miles at the NYC airports.

Driving to work, I ran into very thick fog along all of the Grand Central and Cross Island Parkways, as they run along the water. Thickest fog was on the Cross Island near the Throggs Neck and Whitestone Bridges.

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Drz1111

Drz1111

Posted
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Loving the marine layer this week - very much like a CA summer.

Trees in the backyards behind my apartment are all well-along leafing out. Earliest leaf out I can remember. Song birds are passing through as well - and that's also very early.

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