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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

models are gonna bust 5 degrees to low wednesday and thursday

Considering they also busted a couple degrees too low yesterday and today with the same pattern still in place, I don't see much reason why they shouldn't do so again for Wednesday through Friday, getting Thursday above 80 and Friday perhaps close to 80 depending on the timing of the warmest 850mb temps.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

the last five days of March 1998 were 80 degrees or better...The warmest five day period in March history...It was 90 imby on 3/31/98...I hope the Summer will not be another top ten hottest...I fear it will be unless the rubber band breaks...

March 98 impressive along with 90. Truly fantastic weather, the recent dryness is enhancing the allergy season. I think the verdict is still out on the summer being overly warm-hot. I am leaning normal for now but if this warmth continues into april, may - who knows what this summer could be.

UNc whens the last time nyc had 3 hot summers in a row? Everytime I look through my records I always find pairs never a hat trick. But if anyone knows - its you.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

March 98 impressive along with 90. Truly fantastic weather, the recent dryness is enhancing the allergy season. I think the verdict is still out on the summer being overly warm-hot. I am leaning normal for now but if this warmth continues into april, may - who knows what this summer could be.

UNc whens the last time nyc had 3 hot summer in a row. Everytime I look hrough my records I always find pairs never a hat trick. But if anyone knows - its you.

I do not think we will have a warm summer, I think that the first half will be normal to slightly below normal and the second half will be slightly below normal to well below normal, but that is still a good while out in time.

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cold&cloudy

cold&cloudy

Posted
Posted

Mostly cloudy and 78 F with thunder.

From the NWS:

...A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SUSSEX COUNTY...

AT 458 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

FEW THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEWTON...MOVING NORTH

AT AROUND 5 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR HIGHLAND LAKE

AROUND 540 PM AND VERNON VALLEY AROUND 600 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO

POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

Mostly cloudy and 78 F with thunder.

From the NWS:

...A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SUSSEX COUNTY...

AT 458 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

FEW THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEWTON...MOVING NORTH

AT AROUND 5 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR HIGHLAND LAKE

AROUND 540 PM AND VERNON VALLEY AROUND 600 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO

POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

May I ask, what MONTH is this?

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

Buoy just off NY Harbor is at 49F (air temp 53F). Just ridiculous. This time last year? 42-43F with air temps in the low 40s.

Further out (buoy 44025), water temp has gone up to 48F with air temp of 51F. This time last year this buoy was solidly in the 41-42F range.

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blizzardof09

blizzardof09

Posted
Posted

I was still pretty cool here out on the south shore of long island. To be expected this time of year for my area. For wednesday and thursday while nyc on west will be 80 or higher ill be struggling to hit 70. Its a slap in the face when its gonna be like 10-15 degrees cooler wed. And thurs. While west of me 80's is looking to be commonplace.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Trials,

Can you promise me some leaves on these trees by the end of the week?

Shots from the forest around my apartment here in the Philly area.

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k50jl.jpg

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jpejo4.jpg

I found some leaves trials, but they don't look so well...

i5rcsl.jpg

If this is what it looks like here, I'd think my area of Monmouth would be even less budding given the cooler temps there.

You're more than welcome to make fun of me if I'm wrong come Friday, but I'd be surprised if the trees posted in these pix look green by the end of the week.

In defense of trials, I do see leaves popping on the crabapples (which also leafed out in March 2010). Cherry blossoms full bloom as well.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

Trials,

Can you promise me some leaves on these trees by the end of the week?

Shots from the forest around my apartment here in the Philly area.

I found some leaves trials, but they don't look so well...

If this is what it looks like here, I'd think my area of Monmouth would be even less budding given the cooler temps there.

You're more than welcome to make fun of me if I'm wrong come Friday, but I'd be surprised if the trees posted in these pix look green by the end of the week.

Overall, i think that the only trees that will be starting to bloom are the ones that are either in full sunlight or ones that are fruit producing trees.

The bigger Oaks and Maples will wait until mid April before a leaf-out occurs.

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

Not even with a due west wind?

and does 85 mean near 90 to you?

The warmest 850mb temps are still to our north on Thursday, maybe temps could reach 80 degrees or a little warmer near NYC but the best chance of temperatures closer to 85F will be in New England, skipping down to the central Mid Atlantic on Friday. Speeding up the warmth by 6-12 hours could perhaps allow highs to get closer to 85F here, but with the trends towards slower timing I would think at this time it's not as likely.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

I can see temps approaching 90 on Thursday in NYC, if there is a west wind, then it will be more than possible, but for Boston, it will be more than probable.

We can see temps above 80 here but the 850's are forecast to be less impressive than 4/7/10 when we

got the earliest 90 on record. 2010 had that slug of 20C 850's just offshore.

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