March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[TheTrials]

cherry blossoms are out, red buds on the trees too. 77.

cant wait to bump all the posts saying i was wrong about leaf out

multiple trees on I-95 in CT with small leaves

all bushes out or blossoming

bees everywhere

[tornadojay]

almost up to 77 here.. temp has leveled off a bit but still climbing ever so slowly

[NYCSuburbs]

Really nice outside, temperatures are already in the mid 70s. Feels much more like May than March...

Thursday doesn't look to be as warm with the latest trends; the BDCF is trending weaker and the warmest 850mb temps are also slower to get here, moving through overnight instead of Thursday afternoon/evening. If it ends up as currently modeled, coming through overnight, then the chance of reaching 80 degrees on Thursday will be lower, with mid-upper 70s more likely instead, but assuming that the trend for a colder Wednesday/Thursday is correct, Friday would also be likely to reach the mid-upper 70s.

12z NAM for Thursday reflects the slower trend, with only mid 70s instead of low 80s:

[ag3]

Lol. Only 58 at Long Beach.

68-76 area wide now, away from beaches.

I'm at 71 in Bayside.

[cold&cloudy]

77 F with a heat index of 78 F in Sussex

[Weathergun]

3pm Temps have dropped a 1-2 around NYC,LGA,EWR. Winds have switched to S/SE at stations. JFK went up one.

KNYC 71

KEWR 73

KLGA 68

KJFK 63

[SACRUS]

cant wait to bump all the posts saying i was wrong about leaf out

multiple trees on I-95 in CT with small leaves

all bushes out or blossoming

bees everywhere

Very quick progress here the last 10 days. Not sure why anyone would doubt that with these kind of tems aside from last thu/fri.

[tornadojay]

closing in on 78 here now.. it's only fitting the last day of winter torch like this, given what has happend this season

[uncle W]

it was 76 for a high imby...now 73...

[bluewave]

HUH ???? , He commented that AFTER 2 YEARS something fundamental may have changed .

My response is 2 yrs is too small of a sampling to assume that

If one responds in the scientific community that peaks are " always " larger

than the depths of valleys and 2 years constitute a trend , you could be marginalized .

I love the warmth but its nonsense to say any long term trend can be deduced from a tiny sampling from your back yard .

What we can say is that especially since the late 90's the above normal temps have been crushing the below normal ones.

Matches up well with the national and global trend that we have been experiencing.

[pazzo83]

Upton now says, what BDCF?

Tonight Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph...becoming northeast after midnight.

Wednesday Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. East winds around 5 mph...becoming south in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night Partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.

Thursday Mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs in the upper 70s.

Thursday Night Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.

[tornadojay]

looks like 77.5 is my high.. temp has been coming down now.

[Zir0b]

Hit 78 in New Brunswick!

Multiple places have hit 80

http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet/

NJ Hot Spots City, State Temp Hamilton Twp. (Mercer), NJ 80 Butler, NJ 80 Pemberton, NJ 80 Lafayette, NJ 80 Summit, NJ 80

NJ Cool Spots City, State Temp Harvey Cedars, NJ 59 Sea Bright, NJ 59 Cape May, NJ 60 Seaside Heights, NJ 61 Atlantic City (U), NJ 62

[jm1220]

Lol. Only 58 at Long Beach.

68-76 area wide now, away from beaches.

I'm at 71 in Bayside.

Gorgeous here in Midtown, but I know the seabreeze awaits when I get home from work. Trees are noticeably less leafed out there than around here also.

[Cfa]

Finally touched 70.

Everything is coming to life.

[Isotherm]

cant wait to bump all the posts saying i was wrong about leaf out

multiple trees on I-95 in CT with small leaves

all bushes out or blossoming

bees everywhere

You may be able to claim a few species of trees beginning to leaf out, but the majority will be only budding by the end of the week. Full leaf out is simply impossible this week unless we continue another 7-10+ days of temps in the 70s and 80s.

[TheTrials]

Very quick progress here the last 10 days. Not sure why anyone would doubt that with these kind of tems aside from last thu/fri.

the usual naysers were lined up. They are hiding somewhere now.

Even the usual level headed isotherm said the trees dont come out in the northeast till May. I think he was drinking.

[pazzo83]

holding low 70s in the city, SE winds have backed off in the last ob as there is barely a breeze out.

[pazzo83]

You may be able to claim a few species of trees beginning to leaf out, but the majority will be only budding by the end of the week. Full leaf out is simply impossible this week unless we continue another 7-10+ days of temps in the 70s and 80s.

Almost every tree here is budding, and many have small leaves.

[Isotherm]

the usual naysers were lined up. They are hiding somewhere now.

Even the usual level headed isotherm said the trees dont come out in the northeast till May. I think he was drinking.

I think we must be talking semantics here. When I say leaf out - I'm talking fully grown, summer-time look across the tree landscape - and that doesn't usually occur before May 5th-10th. The earliest I've seen a summer look is late April. As far as major budding and the beginning of the leaf out process, that's a different story.

[TheTrials]

I think we must be talking semantics here. When I say leaf out - I'm talking fully grown, summer-time look across the tree landscape - and that doesn't usually occur before May 5th-10th. The earliest I've seen a summer look is late April. As far as major budding and the beginning of the leaf out process, that's a different story.

leaf out means leaves. I am not going to measure them and decide what is full grown and what isn't.

Fact is, all my trees are budding several are flowering, and some have leaves.

You can only be further ahead living in the tropics

[ag3]

More then 75% of trees have buds here.

The trees with flowers already flowered out and a lot of trees have small leaves starting, including the oak trees.

[TheTrials]

Almost every tree here is budding, and many have small leaves.

other than eastern LI and maybe the people living on the beach, we all are at a minimum like you describe.

[pazzo83]

other than eastern LI and maybe the people living on the beach, we all are at a minimum like you describe.

I was looking at a friend's pictures on FB of St Patrick's day in DC where they were walking around the Mall etc. What they looked like on Saturday we are close to looking like here today.

[TheTrials]

models are gonna bust 5 degrees to low wednesday and thursday

[pazzo83]

models are gonna bust 5 degrees to low wednesday and thursday

BOX mentioned possible 90F in their latest AFD.

If this insanity last through the summer I might have to capitulate and buy an AC unit.

[donsutherland1]

BOX mentioned possible 90F in their latest AFD.

If this insanity last through the summer I might have to capitulate and buy an AC unit.

If Boston can have west winds, Boston is an ideal spot to be roasted. Boston's all-time March record high tempeature is 89°.

[TheTrials]

If Boston can have west winds, Boston is an ideal spot to be roasted. Boston's all-time March record high tempeature is 89°.

93 is my prediction for them Thursday. Too bad the redsox won't come close to that in wins this year, LOLZ.

[pazzo83]

If Boston can have west winds, Boston is an ideal spot to be roasted. Boston's all-time March record high tempeature is 89°.

I could see Newark getting up there as well.

[pazzo83]

93 is my prediction for them Thursday. Too bad the redsox won't come close to that in wins this year, LOLZ.

BURN