March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[LocoAko]

New Brunswick already up to 68F though the rate of increase has begun to ease off as would be expected. Amazing. Was 65F by 9:30AM.

[tornadojay]

I'm already up to 67. I think it may be close to 70 by noon-time. According to my local norms and what I have captured from my weather station, I am about 8 degrees above normal so far this month.. after this week is through, there's no telling how much above normal I'll be.

[TheTrials]

I'm already up to 67. I think it may be close to 70 by noon-time. According to my local norms and what I have captured from my weather station, I am about 8 degrees above normal so far this month.. after this week is through, there's no telling how much above normal I'll be.

+15, easy.

[forkyfork]

the day 7-10 euro backed off on the big cooldown

[PB GFI]

With a few minor exceptions, we've been torching for two years now. Perhaps something fundamental has changed, and this is the new normal. In the past two years we've had:

warmest Spring on record

warmest Summer on record

one of the warmest Falls on record

2nd warmest Winter on record

likely the warmest DJFM on record by a mile

warmest day

second warmest high

warmest min

probably 3 warmest months on record (July 2010, Feb 2012, March 2012)

Hey my man ,

Small sampling . This has come on the heels as one of the snowier decades in the past 3

Again thats a small sampling too . Peaks and Valleys , wouldnt read too much into it .

But I would enjoy it .

[TheTrials]

wouldn't be surprised if there is no April cool-down as advertised by some much longer range guidance.

[Jefflaw77]

So basically by April 1st we're going to be having regular 60+ days every day with many days in the 70's, if no cool down comes.. May could turn out be be mostly 70's and 80's if not higher..

May 1991 was insane, if i recall.. Most days in the 80's or higher!

Full Leaf out by Mid April..... if this all comes to fruition.

[pazzo83]

park at 68, lga 67, newark at 71.

[Analog96]

So basically by April 1st we're going to be having regular 60+ days every day with many days in the 70's, if no cool down come.. May could turn out be be mostly 70's and 80's if not higher..

May 1991 was insane, if i recall.. Most days in the 80's or higher!

Most years that are this warm this early have cool summers. 2002 is a notable exception.

[CooL]

the day 7-10 euro backed off on the big cooldown

Euro has had a cool bias in its long range all winter suprisingly. It brought the polar vortex into the northeast countless times and never verified

[TheTrials]

So basically by April 1st we're going to be having regular 60+ days every day with many days in the 70's, if no cool down come.. May could turn out be be mostly 70's and 80's if not higher..

May 1991 was insane, if i recall.. Most days in the 80's or higher!

we probably see more 80 degree days than 60 degrees in April. Nothing to suggest any real pattern changes.

[Jefflaw77]

I'd love to have a summer w/ many canadien high pressure systems - clear blue skies, w/ temperatures in the upper 70's to low 80's... June days like this are awesome...

However, by July and early august you are bound to have some very hot days mixed in...

We'll see.. If the current dry spell continues, things are going to get dry pretty quickly.. I think TheTrials has been hinting at this.. Isn't he telling everyone to short apples? or something like that..

[TheTrials]

first tropical storms in mid-may at this rate?

[Sundog]

Hey my man ,

Small sampling . This has come on the heels as one of the snowier decades in the past 3

Again thats a small sampling too . Peaks and Valleys , wouldnt read too much into it .

But I would enjoy it .

Peaks are always taller than valleys. It's called trend.

[Analog96]

first tropical storms in mid-may at this rate?

It takes more than warm water to create Tropical Storms.

[pazzo83]

It takes more than warm water to create Tropical Storms.

Yea but you get a low of the SE coast or in the GOM with 75F+ SSTs (likely by May) and you can get something tropical.

[Brian5671]

first tropical storms in mid-may at this rate?

Katrina II is a possibility.

[TheTrials]

Yea but you get a low of the SE coast or in the GOM with 75F+ SSTs (likely by May) and you can get something tropical.

Exactly, and with a persistent atlantic ridge and no trough on the east coast, we are wide open.

[BxEngine]

This thread is awesome.

[Analog96]

Yea but you get a low of the SE coast or in the GOM with 75F+ SSTs (likely by May) and you can get something tropical.

If it stalls or moves slowly.

[Brian5671]

This thread is awesome.

You are awesome.

[TheTrials]

Central park must be totally out right now, right city boys?

[uncle W]

73 now imby...will it hit 80?

[PB GFI]

Peaks are always taller than valleys. It's called trend.

HUH ???? , He commented that AFTER 2 YEARS something fundamental may have changed .

My response is 2 yrs is too small of a sampling to assume that

If one responds in the scientific community that peaks are " always " larger

than the depths of valleys and 2 years constitute a trend , you could be marginalized .

I love the warmth but its nonsense to say any long term trend can be deduced from a tiny sampling from your back yard .

[earthlight]

Newark was up to 71 at 12pm...I think the high will probably be around 76 there.

[pazzo83]

Exactly, and with a persistent atlantic ridge and no trough on the east coast, we are wide open.

Cat 5 by Memorial Day, take it to da bank.

[pazzo83]

Central park must be totally out right now, right city boys?

It's not that far off, I'd guess 72-73 right in midtown right now.

[pazzo83]

HUH ???? , He commented that AFTER 2 YEARS something fundamental may have changed .

My response is 2 yrs is too small of a sampling to assume that

If one responds in the scientific community that peaks are " always " larger

than the depths of valleys and 2 years constitute a trend , you could be marginalized .

I love the warmth but its nonsense to say any long term trend can be deduced from a tiny sampling from your back yard .

Agreed. If it's 2015/2016 and we are still talking about this, then something has really changed.

[PB GFI]

Agreed. If it's 2015/2016 and we are still talking about this, then something has really changed.

If this happens thru 2015- 2016 I will open up a Bordeaux stand in Colts Neck .

[TheTrials]

pollen all over the place today