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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
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It will depend on how warm we get this week. If EWR ends up with 3 or 4 80+ days like Chicago has been getting then +12 will be the rule by this weekend. Of course a departure that much above normal will be hard to maintain. Temps would have to stay well in the 60s for highs to end the month. A day or two in the 40s/50s will quickly drop averages back down. Most likely it ends up somewhere in the +9.5 to 10.5 range.

Either way it will be an incredibly warm month, and the fact that it was so sustained from beginning to end is what is so amazing. I mean it really looks like the 2nd week of April out there. Grass is green and starting to grow, some trees will probably have foliage in 2 more weeks, a full 3 weeks ahead of schedule. 2010 was early but after a cold January and February so it wasn't nearly as extreme as this year.

I read a post on here how the probability of a +10 this month is very nil but we may get very close and some places further west might hit it for the month.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't be shocked to see Newark reach 80+ 2 or 3 times this week. Tuesday is the only day that looks like it might not reach 70 degrees there, with the light onshore flow. Every other day the winds are land-based.

Friday could also be the warmest day for the beaches, with the warm NW flow, with the cold front passage.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

It will depend on how warm we get this week. If EWR ends up with 3 or 4 80+ days like Chicago has been getting then +12 will be the rule by this weekend. Of course a departure that much above normal will be hard to maintain. Temps would have to stay well in the 60s for highs to end the month. A day or two in the 40s/50s will quickly drop averages back down. Most likely it ends up somewhere in the +9.5 to 10.5 range.

Either way it will be an incredibly warm month, and the fact that it was so sustained from beginning to end is what is so amazing. I mean it really looks like the 2nd week of April out there. Grass is green and starting to grow, some trees will probably have foliage in 2 more weeks, a full 3 weeks ahead of schedule. 2010 was early but after a cold January and February so it wasn't nearly as extreme as this year.

Yeah, this February and march warmth is really far ahead of 2010 at this point. The big warmth in 2010 didn't arrive

until April. This will easily be the warmest February and March combined. My guess is that this will be the first year

that Central Park finishes February above 40.0 and March above 50.0.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

March 2010 was close to +6, April was more like +5

Yeah, this February and march warmth is really far ahead of 2010 at this point. The big warmth in 2010 didn't arrive

until April. This will easily be the warmest February and March combined. My guess is that this will be the first time

that Central Park finishes February above 40.0 and March above 50.0.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

Another thing that has been noteworthy about this torch is that it has been pretty humid almost throughout (for March). The sky has a hazy mid-summer look to it right now... very strange.

Dwpts in the park are now climbing into the mid 50s and west of us in the OH valley and Midwest they have been in the 60s.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

Yeah, this February and march warmth is really far ahead of 2010 at this point. The big warmth in 2010 didn't arrive

until April. This will easily be the warmest February and March combined. My guess is that this will be the first year

that Central Park finishes February above 40.0 and March above 50.0.

The AGW folks will be in hog's heaven--a good chance to advance the agenda whether you agree or not with it.

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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

Posted
Posted

Midtown should get near 80F today if the winds stay favorable. Also, SSTs should hit the mid 50s by week's end (low 50s in the sound).

http://www.weather.com/maps/activity/boatbeach/northeastuscoastalwatertemps_large.html

Offshore water temps are in the mid to upper 40s. The shallow back bays of long island are in the low 50s.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

http://www.weather.c...emps_large.html

Offshore water temps are in the mid to upper 40s. The shallow back bays of long island are in the low 50s.

In mid April of last year we saw a week similar to the one we are likely going to see this week, and water temps spiked from 47-48 to 55 in a matter of 2 days. I can foresee something similar occurring this week.

The buoy just off of NY Harbor has already hit 50F once last week. It's at 47F now. Off of Sandy Hook, NJ the water temps are already in the low 50s.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

In mid April of last year we saw a week similar to the one we are likely going to see this week, and water temps spiked from 47-48 to 55 in a matter of 2 days. I can foresee something similar occurring this week.

The buoy just off of NY Harbor has already hit 50F once last week. It's at 47F now. Off of Sandy Hook, NJ the water temps are already in the low 50s.

That means we'll be in the 80s for water temps just in time for hurricane season.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

That means we'll be in the 80s for water temps just in time for hurricane season.

Not really. Just because its a few degrees above normal, water-temp wise, does not mean it will continue.

It has to stop somewhere. Or else, we would be the Caribbean.

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TheTrials

TheTrials

Posted
Posted

no reason to think atlantic water temps and the sound won't approach high 70's low 80's this summer. With the waters already well above normal and no end to the intense torch in sight, it makes sense.

Should be a bunch of shark attacks this summer because of this with migration patterns of bait fish all messed up, the sharks will follow. Let's hope AG3 has a big boat.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

no reason to think atlantic water temps and the sound won't approach high 70's low 80's this summer. With the waters already well above normal and no end to the intense torch in sight, it makes sense.

Should be a bunch of shark attacks this summer because of this with migration patterns of bait fish all messed up, the sharks will follow. Let's hope AG3 has a big boat.

This is an abnormal pattern, but we could just as easily see a reversal late in the spring and we end up with a coolish summer. Just because it's like this now doesn't mean endless torch for the whole warm season.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

This is an abnormal pattern, but we could just as easily see a reversal late in the spring and we end up with a coolish summer. Just because it's like this now doesn't mean endless torch for the whole warm season.

With a few minor exceptions, we've been torching for two years now. Perhaps something fundamental has changed, and this is the new normal. In the past two years we've had:

warmest Spring on record

warmest Summer on record

one of the warmest Falls on record

2nd warmest Winter on record

likely the warmest DJFM on record by a mile

warmest day

second warmest high

warmest min

probably 3 warmest months on record (July 2010, Feb 2012, March 2012)

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