Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

It will depend on how warm we get this week. If EWR ends up with 3 or 4 80+ days like Chicago has been getting then +12 will be the rule by this weekend. Of course a departure that much above normal will be hard to maintain. Temps would have to stay well in the 60s for highs to end the month. A day or two in the 40s/50s will quickly drop averages back down. Most likely it ends up somewhere in the +9.5 to 10.5 range.

Either way it will be an incredibly warm month, and the fact that it was so sustained from beginning to end is what is so amazing. I mean it really looks like the 2nd week of April out there. Grass is green and starting to grow, some trees will probably have foliage in 2 more weeks, a full 3 weeks ahead of schedule. 2010 was early but after a cold January and February so it wasn't nearly as extreme as this year.

I read a post on here how the probability of a +10 this month is very nil but we may get very close and some places further west might hit it for the month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't be shocked to see Newark reach 80+ 2 or 3 times this week. Tuesday is the only day that looks like it might not reach 70 degrees there, with the light onshore flow. Every other day the winds are land-based.

Friday could also be the warmest day for the beaches, with the warm NW flow, with the cold front passage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

It will depend on how warm we get this week. If EWR ends up with 3 or 4 80+ days like Chicago has been getting then +12 will be the rule by this weekend. Of course a departure that much above normal will be hard to maintain. Temps would have to stay well in the 60s for highs to end the month. A day or two in the 40s/50s will quickly drop averages back down. Most likely it ends up somewhere in the +9.5 to 10.5 range.

Either way it will be an incredibly warm month, and the fact that it was so sustained from beginning to end is what is so amazing. I mean it really looks like the 2nd week of April out there. Grass is green and starting to grow, some trees will probably have foliage in 2 more weeks, a full 3 weeks ahead of schedule. 2010 was early but after a cold January and February so it wasn't nearly as extreme as this year.

Yeah, this February and march warmth is really far ahead of 2010 at this point. The big warmth in 2010 didn't arrive

until April. This will easily be the warmest February and March combined. My guess is that this will be the first year

that Central Park finishes February above 40.0 and March above 50.0.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

March 2010 was close to +6, April was more like +5

Yeah, this February and march warmth is really far ahead of 2010 at this point. The big warmth in 2010 didn't arrive

until April. This will easily be the warmest February and March combined. My guess is that this will be the first time

that Central Park finishes February above 40.0 and March above 50.0.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

Another thing that has been noteworthy about this torch is that it has been pretty humid almost throughout (for March). The sky has a hazy mid-summer look to it right now... very strange.

Dwpts in the park are now climbing into the mid 50s and west of us in the OH valley and Midwest they have been in the 60s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

Yeah, this February and march warmth is really far ahead of 2010 at this point. The big warmth in 2010 didn't arrive

until April. This will easily be the warmest February and March combined. My guess is that this will be the first year

that Central Park finishes February above 40.0 and March above 50.0.

The AGW folks will be in hog's heaven--a good chance to advance the agenda whether you agree or not with it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NorEaster27

NorEaster27

Posted
Posted

Midtown should get near 80F today if the winds stay favorable. Also, SSTs should hit the mid 50s by week's end (low 50s in the sound).

http://www.weather.com/maps/activity/boatbeach/northeastuscoastalwatertemps_large.html

Offshore water temps are in the mid to upper 40s. The shallow back bays of long island are in the low 50s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

http://www.weather.c...emps_large.html

Offshore water temps are in the mid to upper 40s. The shallow back bays of long island are in the low 50s.

In mid April of last year we saw a week similar to the one we are likely going to see this week, and water temps spiked from 47-48 to 55 in a matter of 2 days. I can foresee something similar occurring this week.

The buoy just off of NY Harbor has already hit 50F once last week. It's at 47F now. Off of Sandy Hook, NJ the water temps are already in the low 50s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

In mid April of last year we saw a week similar to the one we are likely going to see this week, and water temps spiked from 47-48 to 55 in a matter of 2 days. I can foresee something similar occurring this week.

The buoy just off of NY Harbor has already hit 50F once last week. It's at 47F now. Off of Sandy Hook, NJ the water temps are already in the low 50s.

That means we'll be in the 80s for water temps just in time for hurricane season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

That means we'll be in the 80s for water temps just in time for hurricane season.

Not really. Just because its a few degrees above normal, water-temp wise, does not mean it will continue.

It has to stop somewhere. Or else, we would be the Caribbean.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TheTrials

TheTrials

Posted
Posted

no reason to think atlantic water temps and the sound won't approach high 70's low 80's this summer. With the waters already well above normal and no end to the intense torch in sight, it makes sense.

Should be a bunch of shark attacks this summer because of this with migration patterns of bait fish all messed up, the sharks will follow. Let's hope AG3 has a big boat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

no reason to think atlantic water temps and the sound won't approach high 70's low 80's this summer. With the waters already well above normal and no end to the intense torch in sight, it makes sense.

Should be a bunch of shark attacks this summer because of this with migration patterns of bait fish all messed up, the sharks will follow. Let's hope AG3 has a big boat.

This is an abnormal pattern, but we could just as easily see a reversal late in the spring and we end up with a coolish summer. Just because it's like this now doesn't mean endless torch for the whole warm season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

This is an abnormal pattern, but we could just as easily see a reversal late in the spring and we end up with a coolish summer. Just because it's like this now doesn't mean endless torch for the whole warm season.

With a few minor exceptions, we've been torching for two years now. Perhaps something fundamental has changed, and this is the new normal. In the past two years we've had:

warmest Spring on record

warmest Summer on record

one of the warmest Falls on record

2nd warmest Winter on record

likely the warmest DJFM on record by a mile

warmest day

second warmest high

warmest min

probably 3 warmest months on record (July 2010, Feb 2012, March 2012)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...