March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[forkyfork]

12z NAM has a seabreeze front coming on Monday afternoon: 70s just west of NYC. 40s/50s along the shore:

the seabreeze looks weak to me. the ambrose jet is only 10 kts on that map

[earthlight]

I'd bet money the warmth over performs away from the shore with a light SW flow and those 850 temps over NJ.

[NYCSuburbs]

Now the warmest day of the GFS is delayed to Friday... With the warmest 850mb temps briefly moving in around this time, I'm thinking it does make more sense, but considering that it's 141 hours out, it'll be interesting to see if the GFS holds onto this solution or if some other feature pops up to once again block the stronger warmth.

[bluewave]

Euro and DGEX approach 80 by Thursday ahead of the cold front as the winds turn more SW.

With the way our warm days have been beating guidance by a few degrees this year, could

easily be low 80's for places like Newark if the winds verify SW with such warm 850's. The ridge

peaks at over +400 m a few days before.

[FPizz]

48 at 1045, high of 70 in jeopardy?

[forkyfork]

the clouds burned off over LI first

[ag3]

Sun is out here now.

[uncle W]

the last two years were warm on this date and today's minimum was one of the warmest for the date...a far cry from 1956 when the second snowstorm in two days started around this time on a Sunday also...

[JonClaw]

59F and Sunny in Richmond Hill. Very nice out.

[NYCSuburbs]

The clouds are mostly gone almost everywhere except for northern NJ... still cloudy and chilly here. I really don't see highs getting up to the forecast 67 degrees at this rate.

EDIT: The latest temperatures also reflect the axis of clouds from central to NE NJ, with low 50s along this narrow line and mid-upper 50s elsewhere:

[uncle W]

still cloudy over head...54 degrees...

[Jefflaw77]

65 here in dix hills, NY... Another great day!

[NYCSuburbs]

Clearing in the cloud cover is now right on top of eastern Bergen county. Sunny without a single cloud to my north and west, partly sunny overhead and to my east, and cloudy skies looking to my south.

[Allsnow]

Sun finally breaking through clouds....perhaps we can get to the forecast highs with longer daylight and strong sun....see what happens

[forkyfork]

Sun finally breaking through clouds....perhaps we can get to the forecast highs with longer daylight and strong sun....see what happens

the nam showed temps warming rapidly around 18z

[Allsnow]

the nam showed temps warming rapidly around 18z

I think we will be able to do it...plenty of time we have made up temps quickly in this situation..btw happy birthday

[Weathergun]

Plenty of sunshine of here now. Skies are just a little hazy. High temps, away from the shore, will come probably come around 4 or 5pm today.

[H2Otown_WX]

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KBDR Interesting battle between the GFS and NAM with regard to the Tuesday forecast. NAM has low clouds and fog hanging on throughout the day in southern CT goes with a high of 52 at BDR while the GFS is going with 65.

[Fantom X]

Still socked in the clouds & 51.8F here.

[Allsnow]

61 here

[Snowlover76]

blowztorching tday

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Here comes the fog down here. Low 50's and fog

[Allsnow]

61 here

66

[Snow_Miser]

67 Degrees here

[tmagan]

20Z Observations

[Isotherm]

20Z Observations

Expect more of the same this week - warm, 65-75 for most of NJ, coolish (60-65 highs) within 15 miles of shore and LI due to southerly flow. Thursday probably the warmest day of the week for most; 850's begin dropping Fri afternoon w/ the cold front.

[snywx]

72* here.. Boy do I love living inland

[NYCSuburbs]

The DGEX now joins the ECM and CMC with 80s for Thursday... as long as the warmer 850mb temps move through the area on Thursday ahead of the cold front, considering that the warm air mass will begin to move further southeast around that time, 80 degrees is a reasonable possibility for parts of the area.

18z DGEX:

[pazzo83]

Mid 60s here, and it is a bit humid out.

[Weathergun]

Expect more of the same this week - warm, 65-75 for most of NJ, coolish (60-65 highs) within 15 miles of shore and LI due to southerly flow. Thursday probably the warmest day of the week for most; 850's begin dropping Fri afternoon w/ the cold front.

Monday night -Tuesday looks cooler, with the backdoor cold front.