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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

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Posted

The models are starting to move toward an omega blocking look near the end of the 7-10 day

with cooler temperatures for the Northeast.

Those cooler tempratures should be rather "short-lived"

But places in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions are going to have INSANE temprature departures for the month of March.

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Shades

Shades

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I am at 44.7 right now, I doubt I can get up to the middle 50's my midnight.

I think that tomorrow stays below 55 for the island.

Agreed, I still think you can crack 50 though before midnight, for your location. But I'd bet for it to surpass 50 in NYC/west tonight. It's one of those regimes with late day highs, even without the sun, all it takes is a wind shift which will go westerly tonight. Tomorrow it veers back around and before then I don't think there will be enough sun to reach 60 before a stratus duck reestablishes, even in the city. So I agree with your <55 for tomorrow as well on the Island.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

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Agreed, I still think you can crack 50 though before midnight, for your location. But I'd bet for it to surpass 50 in NYC/west tonight. It's one of those regimes with late day highs, even without the sun, all it takes is a wind shift which will go westerly tonight. Tomorrow it veers back around and before then I don't think there will be enough sun to reach 60 before a stratus duck reestablishes, even in the city. So I agree with your <55 for tomorrow as well on the Island.

Oh I defiantly think that NYC will hit 50 before midnight, but I still have my doubts that where I live will be able to hit 50 before midnight.

I see tommorow as being mostly cloudy for much of the day, so that will most likely hold daytime temperatures down a bit.

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tornadojay

tornadojay

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Oh I defiantly think that NYC will hit 50 before midnight, but I still have my doubts that where I live will be able to hit 50 before midnight.

I see tommorow as being mostly cloudy for much of the day, so that will most likely hold daytime temperatures down a bit.

Long Island is almost it's own climatological zone during this time of the year.

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Shades

Shades

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A little bit of sun goes a long way with this ridge/heights, as long as the flow is week, even an onshore component won't concede to cooler temperatures. I think this will be a factor in regards to how warm we get next week. With a southerly/southeasterly gradient, 60's/70's are still possible with relatively clear skies, if we can keep the flow week. It doesn't necessarily need to be a west/southwest wind for it to get warm, the heights can find another way to not be denied. Regardless what the temperature does locally, this pattern, and the amplitude/height of the ridge is extremely impressive for this time of the year.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

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Yep, noticed this when I got off the subway in Midtown, several degrees warmer. The marine layer is dying though. FINALLY.

But a little too late to make much of a difference, if it had come out a few hours earlier, Upton would not have busted so big on their forecast highs for today.

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