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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

The 12z ECM joins the CMC in backing away from most of the big warmth for next week with that cutoff right over the area. If that happens, we'd spend almost every day (except Friday taking the run verbatim, but tomorrow's temps could go either way) from today until next Wednesday stuck in the 50s to low 60s with occasional clouds and some showers while even New England surges into the 70s. Perhaps it could be exaggerating the scenario a little, but it's definitely possible that the big warmth is only limited for a day or two at most, with the peak of the warmth focused over the central US with some of it spreading north of NYC before getting here. The models are still going to have issues handling the smaller details in the pattern next week as they typically do, but the high pressure and the ridge aren't in favorable positions, noticeably less than the ideal torch set up, which makes the very warm models less likely to verify in my opinion while noticeably increasing the probability of some cutoff or BDCF limiting the warmth for a good part of the time frame. The 4+ day 70+ degree spell as still shown on the GFS is not out of the possibilities, but in the scenario where the cutoff low is stronger like the ECM shows, NYC could fail to reach 70 degrees until next Wednesday or even Thursday, even if there's still a 1-2 day period of highs in the mid-upper 70s once the warmth arrives.

12z ECM for Wednesday, showing the cutoff stuck south of the area:

post-1753-0-51698400-1331845201.gif

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Classic spring day in terms of temp gradient with a backdoor front -- DCA made it to the low 80s, near 60 here around PHL, and 40s from CNJ northeastward into SNE. Generally backdoors are much more problematic for BOS and NYC than PHL and DCA. Case in point the next few days will feature drastic temp gradients from the shores to 30-40 miles inland (55-70F).

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
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How could you enjoy the crap we had yesterday?

At least this is normal.

I enjoy cool, foggy, drizzly days in the spring. I like feeling that last nip of winter from the cold SSTs and seeing the sullen, gray stratus deck extending into the distance. There were some really chilly days last April in Westchester that had this sense. It seems like we are early for backdoor front conditions though, still should have some real winter fronts.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

I enjoy cool, foggy, drizzly days in the spring. I like feeling that last nip of winter from the cold SSTs and seeing the sullen, gray stratus deck extending into the distance. There were some really chilly days last April in Westchester that had this sense. It seems like we are early for backdoor front conditions though, still should have some real winter fronts.

Agreed. I know we are in the minority, but at this time of year, I prefer 45F and fog.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
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Agreed. I know we are in the minority, but at this time of year, I prefer 45F and fog.

The low stratus deck and associated fog from the marine layer also make a nice contrast against a verdant landscape in late April. I really like the gray tones against the green as it reminds me of the beautiful pictures of Ireland I've seen. I also like to feel chilly in the early spring because it's a natural transition of the seasons to have some remaining cold weather...I'm not crazy about just jumping into summer like some people seem to be. The forecast of 77F for Wednesday here in the Monadnocks is honestly frightening for mid-March.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

The low stratus deck and associated fog from the marine layer also make a nice contrast against a verdant landscape in late April. I really like the gray tones against the green as it reminds me of the beautiful pictures of Ireland I've seen. I also like to feel chilly in the early spring because it's a natural transition of the seasons to have some remaining cold weather...I'm not crazy about just jumping into summer like some people seem to be. The forecast of 77F for Wednesday here in the Monadnocks is honestly frightening for mid-March.

Yes, that is why I do not like a sudden transition to summer like some other people would prefer.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

The low stratus deck and associated fog from the marine layer also make a nice contrast against a verdant landscape in late April. I really like the gray tones against the green as it reminds me of the beautiful pictures of Ireland I've seen. I also like to feel chilly in the early spring because it's a natural transition of the seasons to have some remaining cold weather...I'm not crazy about just jumping into summer like some people seem to be. The forecast of 77F for Wednesday here in the Monadnocks is honestly frightening for mid-March.

Couldn't agree more. As I've said before, I like my 4 seasons. Let's have 40s/50s in March, 60s in April, 70s May, and summer weather thereafter. We've already got 3-4 solid months of high humidity and warmth (June - September).

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
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Weather in general is more enjoyable in the suburbs in my opinion including the landscapes and general feel of the impacts of the weather. So I can deal with a few days like this although I tend to get a headache by around 7pm for whatever reason.

But generally I love the real sunny and warm days in spring..when you can first sense the smell of the spring air.

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RutgersWx92

RutgersWx92

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Yes, that is why I do not like a sudden transition to summer like some other people would prefer.

I don't like a sudden transition to hot and humid weather either, but I really dislike cool, foggy, drizzly days in the spring. I think of spring days as nice and sunny with temps in the 60's and 70's, flowers blooming, and outdoor activities starting again; not dreary drizzly days with temps in the 40's (which, IMO, is one of the worst kinds of weather).

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Anyone else see the 18z GFS? Surface flow remains southerly for the mid atlantic/NJ coast through late next week w/ SW/WSW flow over New England. If so we may see a situation where eastern NJ/NYC/LI is stuck in the low/mid 60s with 70s/torch in SNE.

Obviously 60s is nothing to scoff at and still 10-15 degrees above normal, but the possibility of any NYC station reaching or exceeding 80F appears to be decreasing with latest runs.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

Anyone else see the 18z GFS? Surface flow remains southerly for the mid atlantic/NJ coast through late next week w/ SW/WSW flow over New England. If so we may see a situation where eastern NJ/NYC/LI is stuck in the low/mid 60s with 70s/torch in SNE.

I'll take that over 70-80 degree vomit worthy heat.

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