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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

Once again, it seems like the warmth overperformed than what was modeled at this time.

KTTN was forecasted to be in the upper 60s and it is at 73 right now.

I was forecasted to be at 68 but am at 73 right now as well.

Keep that in mind with the modeled temperatures in the next week or so.

temp8.gif

12z NAM at hour 8 (3 pm)

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tornadojay

tornadojay

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Once again, it seems like the warmth overperformed than what was modeled at this time.

KTTN was forecasted to be in the upper 60s and it is at 73 right now.

I was forecasted to be at 68 but am at 73 right now as well.

Keep that in mind with the modeled temperatures in the next week or so.

12z NAM at hour 8 (3 pm)

we were aided by extremely deep mixing today, and perhaps a bit of downsloping might have warmed us up as well.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Once again, it seems like the warmth overperformed than what was modeled at this time.

KTTN was forecasted to be in the upper 60s and it is at 73 right now.

I was forecasted to be at 68 but am at 73 right now as well.

Keep that in mind with the modeled temperatures in the next week or so.

temp8.gif

12z NAM at hour 8 (3 pm)

Many of the warm days this year have over performed the temperature guidance. And just like with yesterday's

chance of late storms, the model forecasts have been too wet for the developing dry conditions several times

so far this year.

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weathermedic

weathermedic

Posted
Posted

Good thing it is not windy or else we would have a big brush fire issue today.

They did put out a sps earlier today regarding "enhanced fire spread"

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1101 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-142215-

WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-

EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-

EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-

SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-

RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-

NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

1101 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE SPREAD.

WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE

HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. THIS COMBINATION

ALONG WITH DRIER FINE FUELS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS MORE CONDUCIVE

TO FIRE SPREAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IF IGNITION OCCURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE

AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES

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Sundog

Sundog

Posted
Posted

If anyone around the tri state wants to know what a perfect day looks like, take a look outside. Why you guys want to go into the 80s in March and ruin it is beyond me. Temps near 70, super dry, sunshine and a nice little breeze is as good as you can get. I wish it could be like today straight through September.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

I agree. It's the nicest day of the week so far.

If anyone around the tri state wants to know what a perfect day looks like, take a look outside. Why you guys want to go into the 80s in March and ruin it is beyond me. Temps near 70, super dry, sunshine and a nice little breeze is as good as you can get. I wish it could be like today straight through September.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

If anyone around the tri state wants to know what a perfect day looks like, take a look outside. Why you guys want to go into the 80s in March and ruin it is beyond me. Temps near 70, super dry, sunshine and a nice little breeze is as good as you can get. I wish it could be like today straight through September.

A perfect day to me is where it is 5 degrees and all out blizzard conditions with 3" per hour snoowfall rates, with winds gusting to over 55MPH every 15 minutes.

or

if we had severe Thunderstorms on and off all day with loud ear piercing thunder

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Cfa

Cfa

Posted
Posted

If anyone around the tri state wants to know what a perfect day looks like, take a look outside. Why you guys want to go into the 80s in March and ruin it is beyond me. Temps near 70, super dry, sunshine and a nice little breeze is as good as you can get. I wish it could be like today straight through September.

I wouldn't go that far but this is perfect for early spring.

Up to 73°F making this the warmest day so far, yesterday was 72 and Monday was 71.

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weathermedic

weathermedic

Posted
Posted

If anyone around the tri state wants to know what a perfect day looks like, take a look outside. Why you guys want to go into the 80s in March and ruin it is beyond me. Temps near 70, super dry, sunshine and a nice little breeze is as good as you can get. I wish it could be like today straight through September.

I agree!

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

A perfect day to me is where it is 5 degrees and all out blizzard conditions with 3" per hour snoowfall rates, with winds gusting to over 55MPH every 15 minutes.

or

if we had severe Thunderstorms on and off all day with loud ear piercing thunder

Dude.you live on LI-not exactly the snowiest place in the region.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

It can be record cool and still be sunny and gorgeous...what is wrong with upper 70s/low 80s and 50s at night instead of sweltering? Perfect sleeping weather. ACs get a rest, still plenty nice out for swimming and outdoor activities. Nobody's dropping dead of heat stroke from mowing their lawn. People go to Maine and Wisconsin for this type of weather to escape the heat and humidity. Nobody travels to a place just to experience heat and humidity.

boo to you...and why? so you do not sweat, why dont you like nice sunny gorgeous weather

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

Today was the 3rd consecutive 70+ degree day so far, and the 4th 70 degree day this month for some places with definitely more to come. I don't know too much about historical weather data but I would assume that this month based on the averages should be close to having the most 70+ degree days for March on record near NYC.

Tomorrow for most and Friday for some should be a break from the strong positive departures with temperatures much closer to average (50s in NYC, 40s near coast), maybe the models could be overdoing it just a little bit but the SE wind should prevent tomorrow from being a much warmer day than expected IMO. It shouldn't have an impact though on next week which easily looks to be the warmest, with support still there for the possibility of at least one 80 degree day for some. The CMC is showing a little less influence from the cutoff low than it had yesterday, the GFS still has a couple of very warm days, and for what it's worth the latest 18z DGEX is coming in much warmer than the 6z DGEX:

post-1753-0-79124400-1331762953.gif

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winterwarlock

winterwarlock

Posted
Posted

It can be record cool and still be sunny and gorgeous...what is wrong with upper 70s/low 80s and 50s at night instead of sweltering? Perfect sleeping weather. ACs get a rest, still plenty nice out for swimming and outdoor activities. Nobody's dropping dead of heat stroke from mowing their lawn. People go to Maine and Wisconsin for this type of weather to escape the heat and humidity. Nobody travels to a place just to experience heat and humidity.

summer is about skin and more skin, bikinis, beaches, and babes, can't do that when you have to wear a sweatshirt because its cold to go swimming

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doncat

doncat

Posted
Posted

A perfect day to me is where it is 5 degrees and all out blizzard conditions with 3" per hour snoowfall rates, with winds gusting to over 55MPH every 15 minutes.

or

if we had severe Thunderstorms on and off all day with loud ear piercing thunder

You sound like me lol. We need action all the time :thumbsup:

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