March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[Snowlover76]

Agree. Right now my guess would be between +5.5 and +6.5 due to cooling the last week of March. I could see +8 by the end of next week though.

But what if there is no cooling in the final week of March and this torch trend jst goes on and on?

[SnoSki14]

But what if there is no cooling in the final week of March and this torch trend jst goes on and on?

Then it's the end of the world. 2012

[Snowlover76]

Then it's the end of the world. 2012

And Al Gore will be correct!!

[Snowlover76]

It is now 52.3 degrees out.

[Guest Pamela]

Not so great to live out on Long Island after all is it? Whatever extra snow you may have gotten does not offset the typical spring marine layer.

I'd take it over the Amboys...and a fair number of other spots, too.

[ORH_wxman]

I'd take it over the Amboys...and a fair number of other spots, too.

Agreed...snow is a premium anywhere south of about 60N and to sacrifice a few days in spring out of literaly 200 days of 60s-80s weather to get more snow is worth it to me. I would absolutely pick being on the N shore of central LI over somewhere in NYC for that tradeoff.

[Snowlover76]

Agreed...snow is a premium anywhere south of about 60N and to sacrifice a few days in spring out of literaly 200 days of 60s-80s weather to get more snow is worth it to me. I would absolutely pick being on the N shore of central LI over somewhere in NYC for that tradeoff.

Living on the south shore sucks, we always get sleet/snow mixes.

The onl good year for the south shore was 2009-10.

[NYCSuburbs]

Looks like the GFS is now trending towards the other models as well by holding back the weekend cutoff low instead of quickly moving it out... I'd rather wait to see the 12z runs before confirming any trend, but as long as that cutoff sticks around south of the region, that ridge isn't going to be in a favorable position, and at best I could see maybe a day or two above 75 degrees but nothing like the torch it showed last night. It's still in the medium range and could change back to the strong and prolonged warmth, but given this current pattern perhaps the cutoff idea could be more reasonable than the persistent torch for next week...

[bluewave]

If these numbers verify this strong, this may be the strongest ridge over our area during March since at least 1950.

I can't remember seeing +400 m height anomalies near this region in March before. It fits the pattern that we have

been experiencing.

[Zir0b]

Forget 80. I think EWR has a shot of hitting 90 next week.

[Brian5671]

Already 50 here at 8:45 DST. 70 will be easy again today with full sun and west downsloping winds--enjoy.

[jm1220]

Living on the south shore sucks, we always get sleet/snow mixes.

The onl good year for the south shore was 2009-10.

Last year was awesome too. I had close to as much snow as the rest of the tri-state (around 60"). 1/27 was a great storm, as was 12/26. 1/12 was decent as well. Quite a bit of icing on the morning of 2/1-then pretty much the season ended. Best 5-week stretch of winter I think I've seen, at least since 95-96.

One downer was that we lost our snowcover faster than everyone else because of coastal fronts in more marginal events.

[nycsnow]

57 here feels beautiful out

[earthlight]

This is pretty much as crappy as it can get for our area in regards to a potential backdoor front or marine influence

[jm1220]

This is pretty much as crappy as it can get for our area in regards to a potential backdoor front or marine influence

Ouch. Mid 40s and drizzle ain't my idea of a happy St. Pat's Day weekend.

[Jefflaw77]

Weren't the models 4-5 days ago pretty bullish on a BDCF for today... How'd that turn out??? Today appears as though it will be beautiful..

I really hope that this weekend isn't what this above map indicates..

[bluewave]

Gilgo already up to 64 on the warm offshore flow.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYGILGO1

[earthlight]

Weren't the models 4-5 days ago pretty bullish on a BDCF for today... How'd that turn out??? Today appears as though it will be beautiful..

I really hope that this weekend isn't what this above map indicates..

The signal first appeared for today when I pointed it out on the GFS a week ago...but it's actually verifying tomorrow & Friday. So the GFS was a day off.

[NorEaster27]

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=11414

63 my backyard in southern queens.

[Jefflaw77]

The signal first appeared for today when I pointed it out on the GFS a week ago...but it's actually verifying tomorrow & Friday. So the GFS was a day off.

Thanks for clarifying, John..

[Weathergun]

Newark and JFK are the usual hotspots in a NW downslope flow. Running higher than Central Park and LGA temps, right now:

000

SXUS51 KOKX 141357

OSOOKX

NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN WEATHER ROUNDUP

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1000 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

CENTRAL PARK SUNNY 61 34 36 CALM 30.16R

LAGUARDIA APRT SUNNY 60 32 34 NW10 30.14R

KENNEDY INTL MOSUNNY 64 35 34 NW13G21 30.14R

NEWARK/LIBERTY MOSUNNY 63 29 27 NW13G20 30.14R

TETERBORO APRT SUNNY 62 33 33 W9 30.13R

[bluewave]

It's always impressive to see JFK set the new record high on the date before 10 am.

14 6:09 6:01 48 32 40 62 1990*

[Weathergun]

It's always impressive to see JFK set the new record high on the date before 10 am.

14 6:09 6:01 48 32 40 62 1990*

Yeah, the records for south shore stations, are pretty low today. ISP and BDR will probably break their's in next hour or so.

[tornadojay]

Definite differences in the GFS vs. Euro in the long range. The Euro definitely wants to hang on to a stronger ridge of high pressure late in the period.. GFS looks like it eventually wants to break it down. If we lock into this ridge well next week, I'd be against forecasting it to break down so quick.

[bluewave]

Definite differences in the GFS vs. Euro in the long range. The Euro definitely wants to hang on to a stronger ridge of high pressure late in the period.. GFS looks like it eventually wants to break it down. If we lock into this ridge well next week, I'd be against forecasting it to break down so quick.

It will probably peak out next week with those huge anomalies, but the heights should continue to run above normal in the East late into the month.

[Isotherm]

It will probably peak out next week with those huge anomalies, but the heights should continue to run above normal in the East late into the month.

I feel like they've been copying/pasting that same map for the past 5 months -- a blanket of red across the US. It's unbelievable.

[Isotherm]

The signal first appeared for today when I pointed it out on the GFS a week ago...but it's actually verifying tomorrow & Friday. So the GFS was a day off.

Yeah the backdoor front is definitely coming, and per the 06z GFS we have a second strong push of marine air Sun-Tues due to sfc high pressure sneaking down the New England coast. Our warmest days next week are likely to be 1-2 days in advance of the cold front as the ridge sinks swd and the sfc flow goes NWLY.

[uncle W]

Central Parks low temperature this morning was 57...six degrees above the previous high minimum for the date...The record high is 75 and with no sea breeze it is in reach...

[tornadojay]

It will probably peak out next week with those huge anomalies, but the heights should continue to run above normal in the East late into the month.

yea. the peak definitely looks next week. The 6Z GEFS anomolies do eventually bring us back to neutral height anmolies, but we'll see

[tornadojay]

the 12Z GEFS height anomolies are positive for our area almost through the entire run, except for the extreme end, where they are neutral. Looks like that mid-week period next week is when they are forecasted to be at least 3-4 SD above normal.