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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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tornadojay

tornadojay

Posted
Posted

I think there is little doubt we are potentially re-writing the record book with the upcoming torch. I know it doesn't officially start for a few more days, but let's share observations, temp predictions, records that are in jeopardy and that are being broken, as we progress in time... also, some calls on when the pattern breaks. Unlike the progressive pattern we've been in all winter, it finally looks like we get into a sustained ridge pattern across the east... heck.. across most of the country.. we're all gonna bake.

I know we probably all have some lingering bad feelings towards winter and this might add insult to injury for some.. let's keep the frustrations in the banter thread.

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easternsnowman

easternsnowman

Posted
Posted

I think there is little doubt we are potentially re-writing the record book with the upcoming torch. I know it doesn't officially start for a few more days, but let's share observations, temp predictions, records that are in jeopardy and that are being broken, as we progress in time... also, some calls on when the pattern breaks. Unlike the progressive pattern we've been in all winter, it finally looks like we get into a sustained ridge pattern across the east... heck.. across most of the country.. we're all gonna bake.

I know we probably all have some lingering bad feelings towards winter and this might add insult to injury for some.. let's keep the frustrations in the banter thread.

March has really warmed up over time. I believe uncle w had a chart showing march temps decade by decade back in the 1800's compare it to today and the difference is astounding! I don't see this pattern breaking until late july or august.

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tornadojay

tornadojay

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By the way... we'll definitely want to hear about obs. from coastal locations throughout this period. With this being such an early stretch of anonomously warm weather.. one of the indirect stories to come out of this might be some of the wacky temperature contrasts between locations that are not too far from each other.

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Analog96

Analog96

Posted
Posted

By the way... we'll definitely want to hear about obs. from coastal locations throughout this period. With this being such an early stretch of anonomously warm weather.. one of the indirect stories to come out of this might be some of the wacky temperature contrasts between locations that are not too far from each other.

As long as the wind is not strong, this should get interesting. However, water temperatures never got nearly as cool this year as they normally do.

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tornadojay

tornadojay

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As long as the wind is not strong, this should get interesting. However, water temperatures never got nearly as cool this year as they normally do.

Excellent points and I was kinda thinking about that too... We do not want any large scale, synoptic west to west southwesterly flows... or else that kinda kills the water effect.. and yea.. you're right about the water temps... I guess I'm thinking just because how early in the season it is and the high degree of + anomaly, it'd be enough to make it interesting.. we'll see how it plays out.. the bigger story is gonna be the records and streaks..

Do we keep records on consecutive days above or below climo... I gotta think that we can seriously destroy a streak with regard to consecutive days above climo.. although, I haven't research it.. and I'm sure we've probably had some long streaks in the past.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
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March has really warmed up over time. I believe uncle w had a chart showing march temps decade by decade back in the 1800's compare it to today and the difference is astounding! I don't see this pattern breaking until late july or august.

March stats...

March decade averages...

decade....temp...high...low...max...min...ave max ave min...precip...snow...B.S.

1870's.....37.0....44.1...30.5....na.....3........na.......na.......4.13"....4.2"....6.0"

1880's.....35.4....40.4...30.0....72.....5.....60.1.....12.8.....3.32"....5.9"..21.0"

1890's.....37.6....45.6...32.6....71.....7.....61.2.....16.1.....3.60"....8.2"..12.0"

1900's.....39.8....47.8...33.4....74.....7.....64.8.....15.5.....3.92"....5.2"....6.5"

1910's.....39.1....44.8...32.4....78.....7.....68.9.....16.7.....4.03"....7.9"..14.5"

1920's.....41.2....48.4...35.7....84...10.....72.6.....16.2.....3.45"....2.8"....7.3"

1930's.....40.2....45.2...36.5....77.....9.....67.2.....17.0.....4.13"....3.0"....5.6"

1940's.....41.6....51.1...35.1....86.....7.....70.1.....18.7.....3.63"....5.2"..18.1"

1950's.....40.5....43.4...36.4....71...11.....65.9.....20.6.....4.21"....6.2"..11.8"

1960's.....40.8....43.7...33.3....79.....8.....72.2.....17.9.....3.43"....6.1"..14.5"

1970's.....42.4....46.9...38.7....81...14.....69.2.....20.6.....4.27"....2.3"....5.0"

1980's.....42.8....45.8...36.7....82...13.....71.6.....16.9.....4.95"....3.0"....8.6"

1990's.....42.4....45.4...38.9....86...11.....72.8.....18.0.....4.52"....5.7"..10.6"

2000's.....42.7....47.2...39.4....78...11.....68.5.....18.8.....3.90"....3.5"....8.3"

2010's.....45.3....48.2...42.3....77...20.....75.5.....24.5.....8.44"....0.5"....1.0"

140yr .....40.3....45.7...35.0....78.....9.....68.1.....17.4.....3.96"....4.9"..10.7"

30yr ave..42.6....46.1...38.3....82...12.....71.0.....17.9.....4.46"....4.1"....9.2"

March extremes...

warmest.......coldest.........wettest.........driest.........snowiest...least snowiest

51.1 1945...30.0 1888...10.69" 2010...0.80" 2006...30.5" 1896.....0 1878

49.8 1946...30.5 1872...10.54" 1983...0.90" 1885...25.5" 1916.....0 1894

48.4 1921...30.6 1885...10.41" 1980...0.94" 1966...22.3" 1888.....0 1903

48.2 2010...32.3 1887.....8.79" 1876...1.02" 1910...21.5" 1914.....T 2008

47.8 1903...32.4 1916.....8.76" 1953...1.19" 1981...21.1" 1956.....T 2002

47.7 2000...32.6 1896.....7.72" 2001...1.25" 1905...19.2" 1941.....T 1995

46.9 1979...32.7 1883.....7.70" 1912...1.26" 1995...18.5" 1960.....T 1988

46.8 1977...33.3 1960.....7.41" 1977...1.33" 1927...17.4" 1967.....T 1986

46.4 1973...33.4 1900.....6.64" 1993...1.35" 1894...17.0" 1890.....T 1983

45.8 1985...34.1 1875.....6.47" 1913...1.46" 1986...15.9" 1958.....T 2010*

Warmest temperature...Coldest

86 3/29/1945......... 3 3/05/1872

86 3/31/1998......... 4 3/01/1869

85 3/13/1990......... 5 3/01/1875

84 3/21/1921......... 5 3/01/1884

84 3/28/1945......... 5 3/06/1872

83 3/20/1945......... 6 3/13/1888

82 3/16/1990......... 7 3/04/1943

82 3/28/1921......... 7 3/07/1890

82 3/30/1998......... 7 3/18/1916

82 3/29/1985......... 7 3/13/1885

............................ 8 3/19/1967

warmest monthly min

33 1942

30 1973

29 1931

29 2010

28 1903

27 1958

27 2008

26 1971

26 1945

26 1946

26 1941

26 1898

Coldest monthly max

49 1887

50 1893

53 1901

54 1881

55 1900

55 1906

56 1892

56 1970

57 1958

57 2001

Biggest snowfalls

21.0" 3/12-14/1888

18.1" 3/7-8/1941

14.5" 3/3-4/1960

14.5" 3/1-2/1914

12.0" 3/15-16/1896

11.8" 3/20-21/1958

11.6" 3/18-19/1956

10.6" 3/13-14/1993

..9.8" 3/21-22/1967

so far the minimum for March is 25 which is the 13th warmest March minimum if it stands...

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

By the way... we'll definitely want to hear about obs. from coastal locations throughout this period. With this being such an early stretch of anonomously warm weather.. one of the indirect stories to come out of this might be some of the wacky temperature contrasts between locations that are not too far from each other.

The ocean is kinda like a pressure cooker on these kind of days. Almost always it eventually wins out and sends in a strong southerly breeze this time of the year. Whether it happens at noon or 2PM makes all the difference between whether we get close to Manhattan's temps or it's 15 or more degrees colder. I just hope we can keep the backdoors away-those make it truly miserable. But with a strong Bermudalike high, those won't happen.

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
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Do we keep records on consecutive days above or below climo... I gotta think that we can seriously destroy a streak with regard to consecutive days above climo.. although, I haven't research it.. and I'm sure we've probably had some long streaks in the past.

It doesn't really make sense to keep records for that. Yeah you can do it, but every ten years you essentially rewrite the record books as new normals are computed. What was a +20 day ten years ago may now only be considered a +18 day and so on as the latest normals are applied retroactively. Not only that, but the methods to compute normals and the places they do it for change almost every time, so it's tough to really use departure from normal as the basis of any records.

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easternsnowman

easternsnowman

Posted
Posted

It doesn't really make sense to keep records for that. Yeah you can do it, but every ten years you essentially rewrite the record books as new normals are computed. What was a +20 day ten years ago may now only be considered a +18 day and so on as the latest normals are applied retroactively. Not only that, but the methods to compute normals and the places they do it for change almost every time, so it's tough to really use departure from normal as the basis of any records.

Normals are going up all the time and the trend over the last 2 years is even higher than what it was over the previous 10 years let alone 30 year averages which seem unrealistic for today's climate.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

I know this has probably been posted already, but from Southland Wx's facebook... crazy to see... I hope this comes to fruition!

421827_10101368174658899_8809807_67080065_348455730_n.jpg

The running 7 day temperature departures from the GFS ensembles ending around D10 are showing the same kind

of record warmth potential.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
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Right now I'm thinking we'll have a two-pronged attack of warmth -- the first surge is Monday/Tues, then I'm concerned about some marine influence or maybe a coastal backdoor mid week due to weaker flow and sfc high pressure in northeastern New England / SE Canada. Late week high pressure builds southward into the area, keeping temps from torching. On the backside of this high is our 80 degree potential IMO, from next weekend into the following week, I could see a string of 1-2 days, maybe even 3, with high temperatures well into the 70s w/ scattered low 80s popping up.

850's on Monday should be near +9c with a SW flow. I expect that MOS is underdone by several degrees right now. Middle 70s should be reached across most of the region for both Monday and Tuesday.

Mid week I'm concerned about a backdoor. Note the weak flow over the Northeast but weak sfc high pressure in NNE. Given the early spring cold ocean, that will be added push to strengthen the sfc wind easterly.

2ytqhs8.gif

Following this, we may surge back up Thursday to 70 before cooling off a bit the end of the week w/ high pressure. Then it looks to me like the Eastern ridge will reach its climax next weekend into the following week, when a string of excessive temp departures are possible (not that this week wont be a torch - it will). But I think maximum temperatures for March should be hit in the second part of this torch.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

What's quite amazing is how cold the rest of the globe is in comparison to North America. Below is the temp anomaly forecast for late next week off Dr. Ryan Maue's site

11mcj9h.png

Another example of weather patterns locking in and persisting that we have been experiencing more often.

This is a great presentation posted in another thread by LocoAko from a Rutgers Meteorology professor on this type of pattern.

http://ams.confex.com/ams/92Annual/flvgateway.cgi/id/19239?recordingid=19239

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tornadojay

tornadojay

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There is a BDCF signal for Wednesday afternoon beginning to show up on most models..you can see it in the upper air alignment and the H85 temperatures as well as the surface wind direction.

hmmm.. must be subtle... I've only looked at the GFS so far... which model has the best signal?.. maybe I'm not interpreting the signal correctly.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

Also I think LI and the NJ shore are likely to see more marine influence this week than they saw the past couple days. SWLY shouldn't be nearly as strong, which will allow sea breezes to develop and progress further inland.

The 12z GFS have 10m WSW flow on Tuesday afternoon. 850mb between 6-8C. If correct, could see 65F+ down to coast:

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earthlight

earthlight

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hmmm.. must be subtle... I've only looked at the GFS so far... which model has the best signal?.. maybe I'm not interpreting the signal correctly.

It's much more apparent over New England on the GFS..but notice the isobars and then look at the 850 temperatures (over New England especially).

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f126.gif

Finally if you look at the 6z DGEX..it goes from 70 to 50 in 6 hours in New York City on Wednesday evening with the BDCF

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/f138.gif

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

Yeah that's what I figured...cringed as soon as I saw the maps on ewall. Probably 70 F at 2pm followed by a low cloud deck and east winds by 3pm...JFK would really suffer.

Last April we had a ridiculous front come in where it went from 75ish to low/mid 50s in a matter of minutes. Looked like this:

fog-new-york.jpg

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Most of the time backdoor fronts are a bit stronger than progged, push further SW than progged, and take longer to wash out as well. Wouldn't be surprised to see winds go northeasterly earlier on Wednesday, and maybe hang on for most of Thursday. Surface winds on the 12z GFS veer from the E/ENE late Wednesday to SE/SSE for Thursday morning, which is still a cool direction at this time of year. Mon/Tues look like the warmest days to me this week, then late next weekend into the first half of the following week (18th-21st).

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