brettman320 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Michigan has an interesting history of violent tornadoes. I decided to compile a quick little study of Michigan's violent tornado history. Because of the low sample size it is hard to make any conclusive statements regarding the climatology but I thought it would still be interesting to look into. Since 1950 there have been 19 violent tornadoes in Michigan. The earliest in the year a violent tornado has occurred was on March 20th in 1976 and the latest occurred on July 4th in 1957. None have ever been reported in the Upper Peninsula and 18 of the 19 violent tornadoes occurred in the southern half of the state. The southwest and southeast parts of the state had roughly equal numbers of violent tornadoes. By month, the days which violent tornado days occurred as follows: March: 3/26/1976-1 F4 April: 4/2/1977- 2 F4 4/3/1956- 2 F4, 1 F5 4/11/1965- 5 F4 May: 5/8/1964-1 F4 5/12/1964- 2 F4 5/21/1953 - 1 F4 June: 6/8/1953- 2 F4, 1 F5 July: 7/4/1957- 1 F4 As the data shows, April was the most prolific month with 10, followed by May with 4, June with 3, and July and March with 1 each. April and May were the only months with multiple outbreaks containing violent tornadoes with three each. The most striking aspect of the data to me is the fact that there has not been a violent tornado in Michigan since 1977 which I think is quite incredible considering there were 19 between 1950 and 1977. One can argue that ratings may have been more liberal back then but this is definitely not the whole story. It is also important to consider the numbers may have also have been low balled due to the lower population distribution of the day. This may also be a reason for the low numbers of violent tornadoes in the northern parts of the state. Another striking aspect is that over half of all Michigan violent tornadoes occurred in the month of April. My guess is that though CAPE may be harder to come by in April, when it does make it's way this far north, the stronger dynamics of early spring allow for more violent tornado outbreaks. I believe Michigan records it's highest frequency of tornadoes in June which is also somewhat surprising considering it doesn't appear to be the greatest violent tornado producing month with only one violent tornado day in Michigan's history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 That March 74 tornado is remarkable. If that were to happen these days the damage and loss of life would be even higher. Urban sprawl has made this area a larger target. The March and April conditions are more about favorable temp and wind dynamics than available CAPE. I've notice that sometimes a temp / dew spread of around 11 seems to yield the best for spring in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Anybody remember the Tornado Outbreak summer of 97? Holly and Hamtramck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Regarding the lack of violent tornadoes in recent years, my guess is that it's probably some combination of less liberal ratings and luck. Indiana went 14 years without one (a fairly long gap even when you factor in that some may have been overrated) until Henryville, so you know it's just a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Regarding the lack of violent tornadoes in recent years, my guess is that it's probably some combination of less liberal ratings and luck. Indiana went 14 years without one (a fairly long gap even when you factor in that some may have been overrated) until Henryville, so you know it's just a matter of time. Perhaps in the next few weeks...(just looking at a few trends ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Technically anything EF-2 or higher is considered violent and I know Dundee had one a few years back the same night we had the EF4 south of Toledo in my town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Technically anything EF-2 or higher is considered violent and I know Dundee had one a few years back the same night we had the EF4 south of Toledo in my town Huh? EF2 and higher is considered "significant" EF3 and higher is considered "intense" And EF4 and higher is considered "violent" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Huh? EF2 and higher is considered "significant" EF3 and higher is considered "intense" And EF4 and higher is considered "violent" Ahh yeah my bad. Anyways NW Ohio just to the south have seen a few violent tornadoes in the last decade, an EF4 in 2002 that struck Van Wert and Continental in November which was one of the weirdest tornado outbreaks I've ever seen and the first one I chased. (Btw NW Ohio is basically like the Plains. Completely flat and tons of country. Great chasing ground for events.) And then in 2010 we had the EF4 in Wood/Ottawa Counties sweep through. I followed this one. Too bad it wasn't during the daytime because through the flashes of lightning it looked identical to the Tuscaloosa tornado with it's shear size and the whisps coming off of the funnel. The Van Wert tornado killed 4 and injured 17, the Wood County one hit at midnight unfortunately and killed 7 while injuring 28 others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Anybody remember the Tornado Outbreak summer of 97? Holly and Hamtramck Yup, that was quite a day for southeast Michigan. In addition to the tornadoes there were some wicked straight line wind gusts of up to 110 mph. There were also a couple F3 tornadoes from the northern most supercell. Upper level winds were sick that day. Here is a link to a write up DTX did. It has some great info and a nice radar loop that shows 3 monster supercells with very prominent hook echoes for this area. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/?n=july2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 That is some impressive directional turning with height: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I would consider the EF 3 Tornado that hit dundee as serious. It came awlfully close to the FERMI Nuke power plant. Fukashima Detroit style!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 As much as I love severe weather, I hope and pray to god that we don't get any tornadoes across the Detroit area. Even a EF1-2 would be devastating, with EF3 Catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I would consider the EF 3 Tornado that hit dundee as serious. It came awlfully close to the FERMI Nuke power plant. Fukashima Detroit style!!! I believe it was a strong ef2. Atleast that's what I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 As much as I love severe weather, I hope and pray to god that we don't get any tornadoes across the Detroit area. Even a EF1-2 would be devastating, with EF3 Catastrophic. Any tornado in the city will be devastating. No one really takes shelter there. Next time Wayne County gets a tornado warning, take a drive through the city, and you'll be shocked. Sirens will be blaring, and no one cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Any tornado in the city will be devastating. No one really takes shelter there. Next time Wayne County gets a tornado warning, take a drive through the city, and you'll be shocked. Sirens will be blaring, and no one cares. The 1997 F2 tornado is a pretty good example of what even a moderate strength tornado in a highly urbanized setting can do. Path length was only about 5 miles yet there were almost 100 injuries and almost $100 million damage. Regarding nuclear plants, I believe the reactors are built to withstand even violent tornado type winds, although I'm not totally sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Any tornado in the city will be devastating. No one really takes shelter there. Next time Wayne County gets a tornado warning, take a drive through the city, and you'll be shocked. Sirens will be blaring, and no one cares. Back in August of 2010 there was a long lived supercell that dropped southeast across macomb county. I was eating at a restaurant on Hall road near Lakeside mall. The storm was tornado warned with sirens and everything going off and the waitress was literally taking our orders as if nothing was happening. As it turns out an Ef1 tornado touched down less than a mile away. I don't even want to think about what would happen if a strong to violent tornado went through that same area. It's obvious there is no preparation and warnings are not taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Back in August of 2010 there was a long lived supercell that dropped southeast across macomb county. I was eating at a restaurant on Hall road near Lakeside mall. The storm was tornado warned with sirens and everything going off and the waitress was literally taking our orders as if nothing was happening. As it turns out an Ef1 tornado touched down less than a mile away. I don't even want to think about what would happen if a strong to violent tornado went through that same area. It's obvious there is no preparation and warnings are not taken seriously. It touched down 500 yards away from my work (Costco) on hayes road between 21 mile and hall road. It was rain wrapped pretty well but could see small rotation on the ground. Was just leaving work when it happened. Was pretty scary and heard people in the store were on their knees praying as they heard the sirens and loud wind outside. I remember the green ominous sky pretty well. Knocked out power for 3 days. That storm came out of nowhere and severe weather wasn't expected that day.I'll take snowstorms over that anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Back in August of 2010 there was a long lived supercell that dropped southeast across macomb county. I was eating at a restaurant on Hall road near Lakeside mall. The storm was tornado warned with sirens and everything going off and the waitress was literally taking our orders as if nothing was happening. As it turns out an Ef1 tornado touched down less than a mile away. I don't even want to think about what would happen if a strong to violent tornado went through that same area. It's obvious there is no preparation and warnings are not taken seriously. Unsure if it will be as big of a problem here after last year but the same could be said for this area. VERY very few have taken them seriously even when the sirens blow. I'll go outside and people are still going about their usual business. Most i ask about it give the same response usually and thus Battle Creek sits in a bowl so a tornado will never hit. Serious.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Unsure if it will be as big of a problem here after last year but the same could be said for this area. VERY very few have taken them seriously even when the sirens blow. I'll go outside and people are still going about their usual business. Most i ask about it give the same response usually and thus Battle Creek sits in a bowl so a tornado will never hit. Serious.. The bowl or river valley thing seems to be a common belief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Back in August of 2010 there was a long lived supercell that dropped southeast across macomb county. I was eating at a restaurant on Hall road near Lakeside mall. The storm was tornado warned with sirens and everything going off and the waitress was literally taking our orders as if nothing was happening. As it turns out an Ef1 tornado touched down less than a mile away. I don't even want to think about what would happen if a strong to violent tornado went through that same area. It's obvious there is no preparation and warnings are not taken seriously. Unsure if it will be as big of a problem here after last year but the same could be said for this area. VERY very few have taken them seriously even when the sirens blow. I'll go outside and people are still going about their usual business. Most i ask about it give the same response usually and thus Battle Creek sits in a bowl so a tornado will never hit. Serious.. This is a serious,widespread problem. On multiple occasions, after we've set off the sirens, people actually go outside to look for the tornado. I've been driving through town with sirens blaring and thought I was in a parade because there were so many people standing along the street. The main purpose of a tornado siren is to warn people already outdoors, not to draw people out of the safety of their homes. Aarrgghhh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 This is a serious,widespread problem. On multiple occasions, after we've set off the sirens, people actually go outside to look for the tornado. I've been driving through town with sirens blaring and thought I was in a parade because there were so many people standing along the street. The main purpose of a tornado siren is to warn people already outdoors, not to draw people out of the safety of their homes. Aarrgghhh!! We know this but good luck convincing others of it. Had a similar thing back east when i lived at the coast with the Hurricanes and Hurricane warnings. Oh they always turn out to sea or go inland before reaching here. Big part of the problem is most of the destructive stuff ( hits ) happened before most were born in the areas where this problem is at. Then you add all the warnings that produce nothing in that area and well you have what you do. Unsure of what the answer is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 This is a serious,widespread problem. On multiple occasions, after we've set off the sirens, people actually go outside to look for the tornado. I've been driving through town with sirens blaring and thought I was in a parade because there were so many people standing along the street. The main purpose of a tornado siren is to warn people already outdoors, not to draw people out of the safety of their homes. Aarrgghhh!! I mentioned this in the main forum, but the trend of more and more people wanting to get a video of the tornado to be a youtube hit is unsettling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 The 1997 F2 tornado is a pretty good example of what even a moderate strength tornado in a highly urbanized setting can do. Path length was only about 5 miles yet there were almost 100 injuries and almost $100 million damage. Regarding nuclear plants, I believe the reactors are built to withstand even violent tornado type winds, although I'm not totally sure about that. Not sure myself either. Although the age of these plants is very disturbing. FERMI is approaching 50 years+. Fun fact though... FERMi came dangerously close to a meltdown sometime in 1966. There is a book titled "the day we almost lost Detroit" it was a very serious situation. The reactor was destroyed and to this day(last time I checked) that old damaged reactor is still sitting in a chamber waiting for itself to cool enough to be disassembled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Not sure myself either. Although the age of these plants is very disturbing. FERMI is approaching 50 years+. Fun fact though... FERMi came dangerously close to a meltdown sometime in 1966. There is a book titled "the day we almost lost Detroit" it was a very serious situation. The reactor was destroyed and to this day(last time I checked) that old damaged reactor is still sitting in a chamber waiting for itself to cool enough to be disassembled. There's actually a song called We Almost Lost Detroit by Gil Scott-Heron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 I would consider the EF 3 Tornado that hit dundee as serious. It came awlfully close to the FERMI Nuke power plant. Fukashima Detroit style!!! Pretty sure that was an EF-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 As for the comments about tornadoes in Michigan and people not taking the sirens seriously. Often I have discussed this with friends and family and they always bring up the old adage that they won't be hit by a tornado or that tornadoes don't happen in Michigan, of course at this point I explain to them that tornadoes have occurred here and they were significant at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 As for the comments about tornadoes in Michigan and people not taking the sirens seriously. Often I have discussed this with friends and family and they always bring up the old adage that they won't be hit by a tornado or that tornadoes don't happen in Michigan, of course at this point I explain to them that tornadoes have occurred here and they were significant at that. What I was mainly talking about is that folks in Detroit city proper are the worst at getting to safety. At least where I live here in Taylor, people are pretty good about it. Hell, I've seen people get out of their cars and into a ditch on Northline before in 2010 when we had those few tornado warnings for Wayne County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.