Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 We'll probably see blizzard watches posted in the overnight package. Would you mention that one of our most reliable models offers the chance at accumulating snow this weekend,,with the caveat.."still five days out" but interesting to note ..or something like that..if you were writing today's AFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Thursday night could be another cold one...not as cold as last night but probably a lot of upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Would you mention that one of our most reliable models offers the chance at accumulating snow this weekend,,with the caveat.."still five days out" but interesting to note ..or something like that..if you were writing today's AFD? MORCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Yeah I agree with this...maybe even upper 40s with a chance of showers. You can easily change 48F and showers into 59F and sunny or even 34F and snow. But changing 58F and sunny to 34F and snow is a little bit extreme. I mean...if I looked at this I would think it looks like a typical early April weekend...50s to 60F and sun. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Exactly..so say "Joe Smith" looks at this forecast today...then doesn't check again until Thursday or Friday and all the other models follow the Euros lead and bring snow this weekend...This leads Joe Smith to ask WTF..and mutter things like why are the weathermen always wrong..He's pissed becasue he saw 58 and sunny and was planning on mulching his flowerbeds or playing baseball with the kids under a sparkling 60 degree early April Day.. instead he's facing the possibility of shovelling snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 MORCH. Well to be fair...the storm is progged for April 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Exactly..so say "Joe Smith" looks at this forecast today...then doesn't check again until Thursday or Friday and all the other models follow the Euros lead and bring snow this weekend...This leads Joe Smith to ask WTF..and mutter things like why are the weathermen always wrong..He's pissed becasue he saw 58 and sunny and was planning on mulching his flowerbeds or playing baseball with the kids under a sparkling 60 degree early April Day.. instead he's facing the possibility of shovelling snow You tend to be a bit extreme a lot of the times but in this case I agree 100%. No harm in putting 48F and showers...if Joe Smith looks again on Friday and sees 58F and sunny, he won't complain. Then again if he sees 38F with snow, while it will be a change...it won't be as extreme as 60 -> snow. But I see the argument both ways because its probably one or the other, 50s and sun, or snow. Nothing in between lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Kevin, who is Howdy Doody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Wow! Amazing snowfall resource!! I had used the monthly version before, but I didn't know they updated it to include daily and storm totals too!! Very user friendly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 who is Howdy Doody? Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 LOL. Kevin is a special person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Bump SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...KJC/DOODY MARINE...KJC/DOODY FIRE WEATHER...KJC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 LOL. Kevin is a special person. Best poster ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Haven't read the thread. Your all lying weenies if you wouldn't take a late season event. (even though it's not happening) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 LOL. Kevin is a special person. Honestly though...if you had to throw a # on the P+C for Sunday...what would it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQEqLUtp9Bg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Well I understand that..but he certainly saw the Euro because he mentioned it. At least throw a partly cloudy and low - mid 40's in there for your forecast which is much easier to morph into snow than 58 and sunny. The general public will read that and have no clue there is a shot at accumulating snow this weekend. This is exactly what leads to people saying "where did this come from" It's 5-days out... I think the general public knows that can change. You have like 10 different morning and evening news cycles to slowly change that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Duh...I forgot about the new BOX kid...lol Aren't AFDs written quite a bit ahead of release of the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 You know what would be a funny bet ? Have Ryan and Kevin bet on the outcome of a storm, and who ever is closest "winds" If Kevin wins, he gets to write-up Ryan's forecast and he has to use it, on air, no matter what. If Ryan wins, Kevin has to take 2 solid months off from posting anything, from December 24th through February 24th, next year... Who's with me!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Duh...I forgot about the new BOX kid...lol Aren't AFDs written quite a bit ahead of release of the Euro? well that's the whole problem then... How can you forecast from inside a box - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 either way ... no need to say one damn word because the Meteorogist in question clearly stated: "...DESPITE THE RECENT AGREEMENT HERE...WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS ECMWF HAS INCHED SOMEWHAT FURTHER N THAN YESTERDAY/S RUNS." duh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 You know what would be a funny bet ? Have Ryan and Kevin bet on the outcome of a storm, and who ever is closest "winds" If Kevin wins, he gets to write-up Ryan's forecast and he has to use it, on air, no matter what. If Ryan wins, Kevin has to take 2 solid months off from posting anything, from December 24th through February 24th, next year... Who's with me!? I'd rather have Ryan let me come on air and do the evening newscast..whip everyone up into a frenzy. over the forecast...have girls, women and milf's jamming the stations phone lines and emails asking who is this hot young stud, and how can they meet me ,..the stations ratings jump thru the roof...job offers from every major wx outlet in the country..things like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Duh...I forgot about the new BOX kid...lol Aren't AFDs written quite a bit ahead of release of the Euro? Yeah that's why I don't see it as a big deal right now. It's worth a mention though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 either way ... no need to say one damn word because the Meteorogist in question clearly stated: "...DESPITE THE RECENT AGREEMENT HERE...WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS ECMWF HAS INCHED SOMEWHAT FURTHER N THAN YESTERDAY/S RUNS." duh - I know..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Honestly though...if you had to throw a # on the P+C for Sunday...what would it be? Well the deal in question is on Sunday. I don't think I would get too specific right now since if it gets more suppressed..MOS will verify better. Don't forget, barely anyone can see the ensemble as well until late in the aftn. When the package is done, I think they have limited view of the euro, thanks to the time change. Just how it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Well the deal in question is on Sunday. I don't think I would get too specific right now since if it gets more suppressed..MOS will verify better. Don't forget, barely anyone can see the ensemble as well until late in the aftn. When the package is done, I think they have limited view of the euro, thanks to the time change. Just how it is. So you're not going to throw out a #...cool. Just kidding, I get it. I would wait until at least a few more runs of the euro agree to mention it more seriously. The gfs was slightly N I believe, but not close to the euro/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 We need a forky post to lock this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Well the deal in question is on Sunday. I don't think I would get too specific right now since if it gets more suppressed..MOS will verify better. Don't forget, barely anyone can see the ensemble as well until late in the aftn. When the package is done, I think they have limited view of the euro, thanks to the time change. Just how it is. EDT is a disaster...they should only have it from June through September...so it doesn't interfere with potential snow events. At the very least they need to make sure October is on EST since October is a now a huge snow month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 EDT is a disaster...they should only have it from June through September...so it doesn't interfere with potential snow events. At the very least they need to make sure October is on EST since October is a now a huge snow month. Yeah I mean March is now a Spring month per Kevin so maybe that's why they did the change? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Congrats litchfieldlibations on the 84h 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 So you're not going to throw out a #...cool. Just kidding, I get it. I would wait until at least a few more runs of the euro agree to mention it more seriously. The gfs was slightly N I believe, but not close to the euro/GGEM. Well they have mid 50s on Sunday. I mean, I don't know how much different you could do, with only the GFS and GEM really available. Maybe tonight's package changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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