Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,583
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

More Snow? Choose sides


ski MRG

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I did?

Normal and overall dry is pattern over next 10

Tend to agree here...

Mixed thoughts after that. The Pacific-N/A pattern would seem to support stormier eastern activity through at least mid April if the MJO has any say in matters. The longer term correlation off the MJO for robust Phase 7-8 exchange would tend to force western N/A height response --> eastern troughiness. However, as we have discussed in recent past, as March ages onward into April, the seasonal R-wave spacing/numbers tend to decrease in the former, and increast in the latter, while eventually losing gradient as it all changes. That means quite naturally that the correlation of the teleconnectors with respect to the circulation system is not the same in spring as it is in the winter. A lot of long words to say the MJO's affect has a bit more uncertainty. There are products out there that break out the MJO per season - I don't have access to them from here.

The PNA is rising sharply and then averaging positive over the next 10 to 12 days, before some suggestion of going negative in the deep visioin. Hard to say if this is MJO related.. It was noted at NCEP that any western Pacific MJO wave spacing is a deconstructive inteference wrt to the background La Nina ENSO. That may be way the last time the MJO passed mightily through the left side of the Wheeler diagram, we observed a 0 pattern recognition.

At the end of the day and all the babble, the basic idea for me is that volitility is above average, but there is some subtle suggestion that after another 2 ...probably 3 weeks, a clearer coherent warm signal is likely to emerge for the 15th - 30th of April.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tend to agree here...

Mixed thoughts after that. The Pacific-N/A pattern would seem to support stormier eastern activity through at least mid April if the MJO has any say in matters. The longer term correlation off the MJO for robust Phase 7-8 exchange would tend to force western N/A height response --> eastern troughiness. However, as we have discussed in recent past, as March ages onward into April, the seasonal R-wave spacing/numbers tend to decrease in the former, and increast in the latter, while eventually losing gradient as it all changes. That means quite naturally that the correlation of the teleconnectors with respect to the circulation system is not the same in spring as it is in the winter. A lot of long words to say the MJO's affect has a bit more uncertainty. There are products out there that break out the MJO per season - I don't have access to them from here.

The PNA is rising sharply and then averaging positive over the next 10 to 12 days, before some suggestion of going negative in the deep visioin. Hard to say if this is MJO related.. It was noted at NCEP that any western Pacific MJO wave spacing is a deconstructive inteference wrt to the background La Nina ENSO. That may be way the last time the MJO passed mightily through the left side of the Wheeler diagram, we observed a 0 pattern recognition.

At the end of the day and all the babble, the basic idea for me is that volitility is above average, but there is some subtle suggestion that after another 2 ...probably 3 weeks, a clearer coherent warm signal is likely to emerge for the 15th - 30th of April.

Yeah /\..many of the long range guys agree that the last 2 weeks of April are a retorch..similiar to or even worse than what we just went thru last week..which would mean spots close to 90. That would also probably mean a continued dry pattern for middle and end of month..so in essensce we go from a normal, dry , NW flow pattern the next 10-14 days to a dry warm pattern. Not good as we enter summer

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah /\..many of the long range guys agree that the last 2 weeks of April are a retorch..similiar to or even worse than what we just went thru last week..which would mean spots close to 90. That would also probably mean a continued dry pattern for middle and end of month..so in essensce we go from a normal, dry , NW flow pattern the next 10-14 days to a dry warm pattern. Not good as we enter summer

Yeah, hydrology is going to become a problem folks... Frankly, I wouldn't mind sacrificing a 4 or 5 days of cut-off constant raining... It may suck - sure - but heh, it's CD season anyway, and we'll need the water.

By the way, AMJ outlook from NCEP is above normal temperature, and below normal prec. in the east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah /\..many of the long range guys agree that the last 2 weeks of April are a retorch..similiar to or even worse than what we just went thru last week..which would mean spots close to 90. That would also probably mean a continued dry pattern for middle and end of month..so in essensce we go from a normal, dry , NW flow pattern the next 10-14 days to a dry warm pattern. Not good as we enter summer

Will you volunteer at the local Tolland fire department over the next couple of weeks to help fight the flames?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ahhhh yes, the poor little Warministas, looks like the heat orgy is over. Low teens here tonight with flakes now in the forecast mid-week and it's only going to get better. Kabooom!

Congrats on the flakes. That is some nice redemption after days of 70s and an obliterated snowpack.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like some spots in NNE summitts could see a 80 degree difference in a week. Amazing really.

Might exceed 70 IMBY. However, my 1st year in Ft.Kent (1976) featured a low of -25 on March 19 followed by a high of 50 the next day. Never since have I seen anything close to 75F change over successive days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is a giant severe weather signal showing up across the last 2 runs of the GFS...

I hear the Miley playing from wiz's mom's basement...

When and where?

On another note the temp had dropped from 40 to 38 here.. windchill of 27.. where's litchfield??? Get out and enjoy this!!!!!!!! Best spring ever!!!!!! Weeeeeeeeeeeee!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is a giant severe weather signal showing up across the last 2 runs of the GFS...

Yeah, seriously. That's a huge signal for a pretty widespread severe threat from the Plains to the MS River Valley. It's pretty cool to see the simultaneous amplification of three waves across the Pacific into western North America. Strong global support for this trough it appears

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My lawn is green and we never use anything for it

It's tough here, we have so much salt intrusion from the wind that it does a number on the soil.

I find here it's when you fertilize not how much or with what brand. Getting the jump on the season seems to be huge and using 1/2 to 1/3 the recommended doses works well for this soil type. I greatly prefer the action of the organics now that I've made the switch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS implies a few inches of snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday for most of eastern VT, NH, and Maine. Probably melts during the day time hours Thursday.

Man, 4/3 on the GFS has a strong negatively tilted trough in the upper Mississippi Valley with some serious vorticity out ahead of it. Looks good for some severe wx somewhere down there!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...