HoarfrostHubb Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Do you guys think I need to turn on my heat tonight? Or will these forest fires keep my my house warm? Just cuddle with the life sized CT Blizz doll you fashioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Kev says no pattern change, says Euro continues pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Just cuddle with the life sized CT Blizz doll you fashioned lol, And a bag of lesco and 5 gal of diesel fuel, You will have all the heat you need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 The euro has all of us getting less than 1" liquid over the next ten days with no strong systems And the next run could have 3" of QPF. I mean the overall pattern isn't dry looking per se. It's not like we have a big ridge over the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 And the next run could have 3" of QPF. I mean the overall pattern isn't dry looking per se. It's not like we have a big ridge over the east. Looks like some spots in NNE summitts could see a 80 degree difference in a week. Amazing really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Looks like some spots in NNE summitts could see a 80 degree difference in a week. Amazing really. 50 degree difference here today from last week 33F...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Kev says no pattern change, says Euro continues pattern. I did? Normal and overall dry is pattern over next 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I did? Normal and overall dry is pattern over next 10 Tend to agree here... Mixed thoughts after that. The Pacific-N/A pattern would seem to support stormier eastern activity through at least mid April if the MJO has any say in matters. The longer term correlation off the MJO for robust Phase 7-8 exchange would tend to force western N/A height response --> eastern troughiness. However, as we have discussed in recent past, as March ages onward into April, the seasonal R-wave spacing/numbers tend to decrease in the former, and increast in the latter, while eventually losing gradient as it all changes. That means quite naturally that the correlation of the teleconnectors with respect to the circulation system is not the same in spring as it is in the winter. A lot of long words to say the MJO's affect has a bit more uncertainty. There are products out there that break out the MJO per season - I don't have access to them from here. The PNA is rising sharply and then averaging positive over the next 10 to 12 days, before some suggestion of going negative in the deep visioin. Hard to say if this is MJO related.. It was noted at NCEP that any western Pacific MJO wave spacing is a deconstructive inteference wrt to the background La Nina ENSO. That may be way the last time the MJO passed mightily through the left side of the Wheeler diagram, we observed a 0 pattern recognition. At the end of the day and all the babble, the basic idea for me is that volitility is above average, but there is some subtle suggestion that after another 2 ...probably 3 weeks, a clearer coherent warm signal is likely to emerge for the 15th - 30th of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Dewpoint was at 43 at 7 am, now just over 20. Best wind gust 33 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Tend to agree here... Mixed thoughts after that. The Pacific-N/A pattern would seem to support stormier eastern activity through at least mid April if the MJO has any say in matters. The longer term correlation off the MJO for robust Phase 7-8 exchange would tend to force western N/A height response --> eastern troughiness. However, as we have discussed in recent past, as March ages onward into April, the seasonal R-wave spacing/numbers tend to decrease in the former, and increast in the latter, while eventually losing gradient as it all changes. That means quite naturally that the correlation of the teleconnectors with respect to the circulation system is not the same in spring as it is in the winter. A lot of long words to say the MJO's affect has a bit more uncertainty. There are products out there that break out the MJO per season - I don't have access to them from here. The PNA is rising sharply and then averaging positive over the next 10 to 12 days, before some suggestion of going negative in the deep visioin. Hard to say if this is MJO related.. It was noted at NCEP that any western Pacific MJO wave spacing is a deconstructive inteference wrt to the background La Nina ENSO. That may be way the last time the MJO passed mightily through the left side of the Wheeler diagram, we observed a 0 pattern recognition. At the end of the day and all the babble, the basic idea for me is that volitility is above average, but there is some subtle suggestion that after another 2 ...probably 3 weeks, a clearer coherent warm signal is likely to emerge for the 15th - 30th of April. Yeah /\..many of the long range guys agree that the last 2 weeks of April are a retorch..similiar to or even worse than what we just went thru last week..which would mean spots close to 90. That would also probably mean a continued dry pattern for middle and end of month..so in essensce we go from a normal, dry , NW flow pattern the next 10-14 days to a dry warm pattern. Not good as we enter summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Looks good for the Whites and up into Sunday River ME on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Looks good for the Whites and up into Sunday River ME on Thursday. Loon and SR may pull off a coup here. I bet they'll do a good bit of business if they get snow, and continue to make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Yeah /\..many of the long range guys agree that the last 2 weeks of April are a retorch..similiar to or even worse than what we just went thru last week..which would mean spots close to 90. That would also probably mean a continued dry pattern for middle and end of month..so in essensce we go from a normal, dry , NW flow pattern the next 10-14 days to a dry warm pattern. Not good as we enter summer Yeah, hydrology is going to become a problem folks... Frankly, I wouldn't mind sacrificing a 4 or 5 days of cut-off constant raining... It may suck - sure - but heh, it's CD season anyway, and we'll need the water. By the way, AMJ outlook from NCEP is above normal temperature, and below normal prec. in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Yeah /\..many of the long range guys agree that the last 2 weeks of April are a retorch..similiar to or even worse than what we just went thru last week..which would mean spots close to 90. That would also probably mean a continued dry pattern for middle and end of month..so in essensce we go from a normal, dry , NW flow pattern the next 10-14 days to a dry warm pattern. Not good as we enter summer Will you volunteer at the local Tolland fire department over the next couple of weeks to help fight the flames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Will you volunteer at the local Tolland fire department over the next couple of weeks to help fight the flames? No, Kev's lawn is flame retardant from all the toxins he puts down on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 No, Kev's lawn is flame retardant from all the toxins he puts down on it. The Taliban actually take chunks of his soil to build fertilizer bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 The Taliban actually take chunks of his soil to build fertilizer bombs. You'll be using Lesco when you have a lawn...once you realize the other methods do not work. Don't say i didn't warn you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Ahhhh yes, the poor little Warministas, looks like the heat orgy is over. Low teens here tonight with flakes now in the forecast mid-week and it's only going to get better. Kabooom! Congrats on the flakes. That is some nice redemption after days of 70s and an obliterated snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Saturday Night is close to a wet snow event on the GFS. Verbatim it would probably give a little snow to Will, but it develops just a bit too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Congrats on the flakes. That is some nice redemption after days of 70s and an obliterated snowpack. LOL, that showed them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Looks like some spots in NNE summitts could see a 80 degree difference in a week. Amazing really. Might exceed 70 IMBY. However, my 1st year in Ft.Kent (1976) featured a low of -25 on March 19 followed by a high of 50 the next day. Never since have I seen anything close to 75F change over successive days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 There is a giant severe weather signal showing up across the last 2 runs of the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 There is a giant severe weather signal showing up across the last 2 runs of the GFS... I hear the Miley playing from wiz's mom's basement... When and where? On another note the temp had dropped from 40 to 38 here.. windchill of 27.. where's litchfield??? Get out and enjoy this!!!!!!!! Best spring ever!!!!!! Weeeeeeeeeeeee!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 There is a giant severe weather signal showing up across the last 2 runs of the GFS... Yeah big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 You'll be using Lesco when you have a lawn...once you realize the other methods do not work. Don't say i didn't warn you My lawn is probably greener than yours and I haven't created an ecological love canal in the surrounding area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 There is a giant severe weather signal showing up across the last 2 runs of the GFS... Yeah, seriously. That's a huge signal for a pretty widespread severe threat from the Plains to the MS River Valley. It's pretty cool to see the simultaneous amplification of three waves across the Pacific into western North America. Strong global support for this trough it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 My lawn is green and we never use anything for it My lawn is probably greener than yours and I haven't created an ecological love canal in the surrounding area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 My lawn is green and we never use anything for it It's tough here, we have so much salt intrusion from the wind that it does a number on the soil. I find here it's when you fertilize not how much or with what brand. Getting the jump on the season seems to be huge and using 1/2 to 1/3 the recommended doses works well for this soil type. I greatly prefer the action of the organics now that I've made the switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 12z GFS implies a few inches of snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday for most of eastern VT, NH, and Maine. Probably melts during the day time hours Thursday. Man, 4/3 on the GFS has a strong negatively tilted trough in the upper Mississippi Valley with some serious vorticity out ahead of it. Looks good for some severe wx somewhere down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Yeah, seriously. That's a huge signal for a pretty widespread severe threat from the Plains to the MS River Valley. It's pretty cool to see the simultaneous amplification of three waves across the Pacific into western North America. Strong global support for this trough it appears Congrats on OU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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