danstorm Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Count me in the "no more snow" camp. Seeing snow this late after this epic disaster of a winter would be akin to bringing a girl up to your room, barely fooling around with her (note: she's a pretty bad kisser), and then watching her leave and slam the door without reason. You lie there stunned, wondering what you did wrong... half an hour later, she returns... "You're back!", you exclaim. "I forgot my purse." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Count me in the "no more snow" camp. Seeing snow this late after this epic disaster of a winter would be akin to bringing a girl up to your room, barely fooling around with her (note: she's a pretty bad kisser), and then watching her leave and slam the door without reason. You lie there stunned, wondering what you did wrong... half an hour later, she returns... "You're back!", you exclaim. "I forgot my purse." LOL, I might agree if it were an inch or 2" but you would deny a historic 12+ April storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 LOL, I might agree if it were an inch or 2" but you would deny a historic 12+ April storm? Of course not... but where I live, it's not happening. I can root for y'all, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 already started my tomatoes but there inside Same here Same here, lol. Kind of cool, I have to admit, in past years tending to the seedlings while snow is falling outside. Question - do people up in New England seem surprised when it snows in April, or do they understand it can happen? Some people here will act shocked even though it has happened here before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Will is going to get his 2", and Kevin will be hanging his head down in shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Same here, lol. Kind of cool, I have to admit, in past years tending to the seedlings while snow is falling outside. Question - do people up in New England seem surprised when it snows in April, or do they understand it can happen? Some people here will act shocked even though it has happened here before. People tend to seem a lot more shocked when it snows here in April if we've had a good warm spell before it. A false spring. Though I'm always generally surprised at the lack of awareness about late season snow since it really isn't that uncommon. (and actually IS common in the interior hill areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 In all honesty, something like this cannot go without consequence. I haven't been watching the long range too closely, but should this MJO wave push into the central Pacific with legitimate forcing, watch out. Notice also where the teleconnections are heading for the next two weeks. Though a weak signal, the PNA is pushing positive, and NAO and AO have dove toward at least neutral. We're in the middle of cutoff season, especially considering the very obvious deflection of the jetstream poleward. In terms of long range forecasting, this means determining WHERE these storms cut off. In the past week, the MJO wave clearly supported this tremendous ridging, and the pattern supported the cutoff over the southern Plains. So what's next? As the pattern shifts, cutoff favorability shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Same here, lol. Kind of cool, I have to admit, in past years tending to the seedlings while snow is falling outside. Question - do people up in New England seem surprised when it snows in April, or do they understand it can happen? Some people here will act shocked even though it has happened here before. They act shocked, especially this year. If we get a snowstorm again this year, people will be completely shocked. I told someone it snowed on 3/21 last year...and they said "we hardly ever get snow well into March." I don't think we've ever had a year without snow after 3/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 In all honesty, something like this cannot go without consequence. I haven't been watching the long range too closely, but should this MJO wave push into the central Pacific with legitimate forcing, watch out. Notice also where the teleconnections are heading for the next two weeks. Though a weak signal, the PNA is pushing positive, and NAO and AO have dove toward at least neutral. We're in the middle of cutoff season, especially considering the very obvious deflection of the jetstream poleward. In terms of long range forecasting, this means determining WHERE these storms cut off. In the past week, the MJO wave clearly supported this tremendous ridging, and the pattern supported the cutoff over the southern Plains. So what's next? As the pattern shifts, cutoff favorability shifts Its certainly been putting the cutoff "sweetspot" so to speak right near us in the longer range...which is why it could provide for an interesting threat or two...but of course the devil is in the details...it cuts off over your head, that is no good or if it cuts off over George's Bank, that is no good either as too far east...but as mentioned earlier, I won't be shocked to see various threats showing up with more frequency as we get closer to early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 How come folks are looking for snow in an above normal pattern thru April 15th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 People tend to seem a lot more shocked when it snows here in April if we've had a good warm spell before it. A false spring. Though I'm always generally surprised at the lack of awareness about late season snow since it really isn't that uncommon. (and actually IS common in the interior hill areas) Can you think of recent examples of decent April snows after a good warmup (obviously not like this Morch)? I know Aprill 1997 had some warmth before it, but wasn't it short? I don't recall it being super warm before the April 1 storm last spring (7" here) or the April 23 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 How come folks are looking for snow in an above normal pattern thru April 15th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 How come folks are looking for snow in an above normal pattern thru April 15th? You're the WOTY, you tell us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Yeah I noticed that monster on the East coast on the 12z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 One of Jerry's friend rubs it in Blizz's face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Can you think of recent examples of decent April snows after a good warmup (obviously not like this Morch)? I know Aprill 1997 had some warmth before it, but wasn't it short? I don't recall it being super warm before the April 1 storm last spring (7" here) or the April 23 event 2006 had a pretty good 4 day torch before the early April snows....not as warm as this, but upper 60s/low 70s type stuff. The early 90s had some mid April snow events where we torched before hand....but that is usually the case when you start getting them that late (the 1993 event was 4/26 IIRC)...1989 had a torch at the end of March before the 4/8 storm (that was a good 4-7 event). And yeah, the 1997 torch was only a couple days though some areas on the CP got aorund 70 a couple days prior to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Well, the models have been scratching their collective heads over something possible that first week... probably out to sea or rain, but something to keep in mind I only need 2-3" 18" would get me to my original call for IMBY snow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 current MJO index has the 19th largest amplitude out of 13,519 days since 1974, and the FOURTH largest RMM2 amplitude. VERY impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 We can say that we may see some snow in the high terrain until we are blue in the face and we still will have people that say it can't happen because the pattern supports warm. It so easily can happen.....it's not even funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Oh ho ho... I just ragged on Will and Scott for not bonering out on the 12z GFS over in the warm march thread, and come to find there's been key board wood pecking over here the whole time - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 current MJO index has the 19th largest amplitude out of 13,519 days since 1974, and the FOURTH largest RMM2 amplitude. VERY impressive Yes, but will it finally be enough to actually correlate on the pattern? THAT is the right question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Yes the reason nobody is mentioning the Euro is because it blows. Actually...I don't agree entirely... It's 240 would extrapolate into a digging trough along the EC... Keep in mind, this GFS's "outlandish" solution is beyond D10 so wtf are we even talking about it - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 We can say that we may see some snow in the high terrain until we are blue in the face and we still will have people that say it can't happen because the pattern supports warm. It so easily can happen.....it's not even funny. You're drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Nate, this October storm was probably a 1-200 yr event. This is the most anomalous SNE will ever see. I guarantee Rindge NH will not have 26" of snow on 10/29 for maybe another 200-300 years. Mm, ...keep in mind, we are by all imperical evidence IN an actual era of climate instability and migration. That might ...shall we say, stir the probability wheel a bit. Hell, for all we know, it's why it happened in the first place. Climate change doens't mean necessarily warmer or cooler - you know this, but that it means increased frequency of extreme events, too. interesting question - It's snowed now 5 time in Octobers going back to 2000, and I recall it snow 0 times in October in the 16 years I lived in New England prior to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 LOL what weenies. Even though I wouldn't lock it, models have hinted at a chance of something like the euro, for several days now. Everyone is obsessed with the torch and rightfully so...but it doesn't mean this is here to stay. First week of April has been signaled for awhile by at least one direct teleconnector, and other indirect teleconnectors for some time - agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 LOL, I might agree if I had more than an inch or 2", but you would deny some dude with a historic 12+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Mm, ...keep in mind, we are by all imperical evidence IN an actual era of climate instability and migration. That might ...shall we say, stir the probability wheel a bit. Hell, for all we know, it's why it happened in the first place. Climate change doens't mean necessarily warmer or cooler - you know this, but that it means increased frequency of extreme events, too. interesting question - It's snowed now 5 time in Octobers going back to 2000, and I recall it snow 0 times in October in the 16 years I lived in New England prior to that. We didn't have many October snow events in the 1970-1990s...in fact I think we had 0 in the 1990s. We had one in the 1980s (Oct 4, 1988...though out near NY State border they also had 10/4/87) and one in the 1970s (Oct 10, 1979)....but we had 5 in the 1960s. Its probably mostly random, but there might be a connection to decadal NAO phase? We have definitely increased the 18"+ storms by a lot recently starting with the 1992-1993 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 We didn't have many October snow events in the 1970-1990s...in fact I think we had 0 in the 1990s. We had one in the 1980s (Oct 4, 1988...though out near NY State border they also had 10/4/87) and one in the 1970s (Oct 10, 1979)....but we had 5 in the 1960s. Its probably mostly random, but there might be a connection to decadal NAO phase? We have definitely increased the 18"+ storms by a lot recently starting with the 1992-1993 winter. Pehraps re the NAO... But yeah, if it is snowing in October to begin with, however extreme, i think the advent of it speaks volumes. Doesn't mean we get nailed this next year, no - but...fwiw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Oh ho ho... I just ragged on Will and Scott for not bonering out on the 12z GFS over in the warm march thread, and come to find there's been key board wood pecking over here the whole time - yeah man, they are easily the biggest weenies in this thread right now haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 We can say that we may see some snow in the high terrain until we are blue in the face and we still will have people that say it can't happen because the pattern supports warm. It so easily can happen.....it's not even funny. We've been saying this for years and yet some people believe that just because they have applied the first chemical bath of LESCO in a euro g-string mankini that no more snow can fall. Fortunately, as history tells us, this is simply not the case. Not trying to single any one misguided soul out of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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