Tropopause_Fold Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 The Cape is a wildcard here...they have northerly flow aligned well for OES enhancement of the inverted trough precip...they could get a 32-33F 4" paste or non-accumulating snow if it doesn't pan out...esp around 09z where 850 goes more northerly. that NAM solution is probably the max this event could deliver. i'm thinking C-1" right now. but i agree it's sort of all or nothing - if you end up within what will probably be a relatively narrow region of good convergence you could score some decent accumulation. if you're on the outside looking in, it's garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Hey Will, do you remember the famous Porltan Maine 18" event that took place off a forecast for 1-3" ... That was Norlun scenario. Not sure if you saw me post above ...but this definitely has a Norlun appeal when stepping back and taking the 55,000 foot view. You are prob thinking of March 1992...that norlun band actually traveled down the coast and gave parts of E MA like 8" of snow when almost nothing was forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 yeah, in reading that ... this is DEFINITELY smacking of NORLUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Well putting aside the bias for this winter to overall suck...this has the look to really "dump" on someone in a short period of time. This has really strong convergence at the surface to almost 850mb based on the look of the 950 and 850 lows. The main s/w goes right over the ma/ct/ri border so that's good for areas near and to the north of it. I like the convergence look to it, because moist ne flow could realy be allowed to lift other rather rapidly since the air aloft is unstable. I could envision an area of light snows or snow showers moving ESE, but then a more narrow but rather intense band of snow move ESE as well...basically along the area of low level convergence. It might even develop a mini comma head as the low develops overhead and just offshore. It then might translate into an area of snow/snow showers along the MA coast as NE flow and high delta T's between the surface and 850 allow for this to occur. I think srn NH and NE MA seem like ground zero for now. MM 5 12Z likes a 2-4 stripe from WMASS SE to the Cape, nice convergence zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 You are prob thinking of March 1992...that norlun band actually traveled down the coast and gave parts of E MA like 8" of snow when almost nothing was forecast. if i'm thinking of the right event - i think i had about 6" of paste in that in about 2 hours. seemingly came out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 that NAM solution is probably the max this event could deliver. i'm thinking C-1" right now. but i agree it's sort of all or nothing - if you end up within what will probably be a relatively narrow region of good convergence you could score some decent accumulation. if you're on the outside looking in, it's garbage. LOL, that's exactly what I said to a friend about 10 min ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 if i'm thinking of the right event - i think i had about 6" of paste in that in about 2 hours. seemingly came out of nowhere. I had a coating while 10 miles to the east had 8"..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 I had a coating while 10 miles to the east had 8"..lol. I don't think that was the Mar '92 event...it did produce decent snow back to ORH because I remember like 3-4" but the shoreline got jackpotted. I remember hear that Portland got destroyed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Actually Scott you might be right...the snow I'm thinking of fell on Sunday night that year....which looking at NARR maps was a synoptic system moving in right on the heels of the norlun...the norlun was more Sat into Sunday morning. So while we did get like 3-4" of snow, it was not from the norlun I don't think...maybe a light amount from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I don't think that was the Mar '92 event...it did produce decent snow back to ORH because I remember like 3-4" but the shoreline got jackpotted. I remember hear that Portland got destroyed though. This was when I was in Brockton. We had a coating while just east got nailed. I didn't get much of anything at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Actually Scott you might be right...the snow I'm thinking of fell on Sunday night that year....which looking at NARR maps was a synoptic system moving in right on the heels of the norlun...the norlun was more Sat into Sunday morning. So while we did get like 3-4" of snow, it was not from the norlun I don't think...maybe a light amount from it. Yeah that's right. There was a little behind it that fell. I was more upset with missing the snow just east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 LOL, that's exactly what I said to a friend about 10 min ago. i think your previous post summarizes it pretty well. the other thing to watch will be the last minute organization it tries to get going - at least as its showing up on the meso models. relatively speaking, it kind of goes to town as its trying to exit and gets that little curl look. if that materializes and someone is lucky enough to be under it...there could be some good, "prolonged" snows under that. what i like is the timing is concurrent with some really low thickness air. you can kind of sense the instability with that look of marine air getting sucked into it as the 850s really tank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 i think your previous post summarizes it pretty well. the other thing to watch will be the last minute organization it tries to get going - at least as its showing up on the meso models. relatively speaking, it kind of goes to town as its trying to exit and gets that little curl look. if that materializes and someone is lucky enough to be under it...there could be some good, "prolonged" snows under that. what i like is the timing is concurrent with some really low thickness air. you can kind of sense the instability with that look of marine air getting sucked into it as the 850s really tank. Best stuff occurs between 03z and 12z too...which is good this time of year. Snow growth zone being very low will help too as the max lift will be in that 850-800mb region I think....esp in the latter half of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Actually on the Cape, it shows the lift staying pretty deep unlike further west...it shoots right through 700mb the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Best stuff occurs between 03z and 12z too...which is good this time of year. Snow growth zone being very low will help too as the max lift will be in that 850-800mb region I think....esp in the latter half of the event. yeah given time of year the timing and airmass are both favorable. just saw the rgem...it really does smoke far NE MA. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 The SPC WRF shows a couple of disorganized bands at first and then really goes to town. It consoidates over the BOS area and then gets se mass good. Snow still hangs on along the coast during the morning too. I like these lows that develop from lack of static stability...or basically from high instability near coastal areas. That event that had that crazy comma head dump over se MA back in January was one of them too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 The SPC WRF shows a couple of disorganized bands at first and then really goes to town. It consoidates over the BOS area and then gets se mass good. Snow still hangs on along the coast during the morning too. I like these lows that develop from lack of static stability...or basically from high instability near coastal areas. That event that had that crazy comma head dump over se MA back in January was one of them too. what a forecast crusher that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Congrats on you coastal folks from GAY down to Phil.You guys are gonna grab a nice 3-5 inch event while I get nada. In the winter I'd be pissed..but TBH now in MORCH it really doesn't bother me. The only bad part is I'll lose my bet with Will...though at least it's not ORH getting the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 euro and nam are interesting, everything else is if you live further north. Hard time buying the NAM but hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 3.5" last night at 3,000ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Congrats on you coastal folks from GAY down to Phil.You guys are gonna grab a nice 3-5 inch event 3-5 lock'd up by the rev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Congrats on you coastal folks from GAY down to Phil.You guys are gonna grab a nice 3-5 inch event while I get nada. In the winter I'd be pissed..but TBH now in MORCH it really doesn't bother me. The only bad part is I'll lose my bet with Will...thouh at least it's not ORH getting the snow He might not get that, but why the hell did you bet? Read my thought on the end of the month in Tip's thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 He might not get that, but why the hell did you bet? Read my thought on the end of the month in Tip's thread. It looks like the only places that get any accumulations tonight are Far Eastern Mass down to the SE coast.Because I didn't see this event coming..and I don't think anyone did. After this..it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 It looks like the only places that get any accumulations tonight are Far Eastern Mass down to the SE coast. Because I didn't see this event coming..and I don't think anyone did. After this..it's over Now we can lock up an April snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 It looks like the only places that get any accumulations tonight are Far Eastern Mass down to the SE coast. Because I didn't see this event coming..and I don't think anyone did. After this..it's over you really think that? i mean i know march has not been kind the last several years and everything is warm for the next 10 to 14 days...but it's still new england. i'm not comfortable saying it wont' snow again until 5/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 you really think that? i mean i know march has not been kind the last several years and everything is warm for the next 10 to 14 days...but it's still new england. i'm not comfortable saying it wont' snow again until 5/1. I honestly do .Of course I thought that was it after the snow last week andi snowed last night and you and Scooter are getting a couple inches tonight..so what i think shouldn't really matter to anyone.I just don't see how it snows in that torch pattern thru early-mid April.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 This event is reminiscent of the one we had in Jan when that meso-low traversed the south coast and dumped a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 LOL, Kevin it is Spring. Perhaps you need to look no further than storms like 4/96....4/97...and 5/77 where we torched beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I honestly do .Of course I thought that was it after the snow last week andi snowed last night and you and Scooter are getting a couple inches tonight..so what i think shouldn't really matter to anyone. I just don't see how it snows in that torch pattern thru early-mid April.. i hear ya. it's weird with the last few late winters / marches having been so bad - but i always considered it a snowy month IMBY. i kind of feel like i am mentally a month ahead of where we are....like it shouldn't be surprising to see the charts for tonight, yet i still kind of am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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