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Brief Winter shot discussion


ORH_wxman

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just saw it on page 51 of the banter thread. A little harsh I must say. While his shtick can get tiring, I don't see the need for personal attacks.

here's the deal...if Joe is really that upset i will happily excuse myself from the board permanently so he can return. that's not a problem for me. but if that's going to be the case:

my personal feeling is, he trolls. excessively. i don't know the details, but i think he was actually banned from eastern for doing the same general thing. maybe i'm wrong on that.

joe's a nice guy - we've exchanged plenty of PMs in the past on stuff. that said, i admit i get tired of his posting style, which is intentionally writing in such as way as to try and get a rise out of people. it's totally fine, imo, to do this every-now-and-then...this place would be boring otherwise...and we all do it almost everyday to some extent because it adds some good comedic value to the board. but at some point, i think folks should also try and add some meteorological insight to what they are saying...or mix things up a bit...or something.

the funny thing is, his act doesn't bother me *that* much...it's not like i wake up everyday irritated because a guy in fairfield, ct posts sunny emoticons on americanwx. i essentially ignore his posts instead of getting into it with him like lots of others do on a daily basis. i just finally shot back and said something.

my post was harsh - but man, there are lots of very very rude things said on here everyday. things that make me cringe. and sometimes pretty personal stuff too. i certainly didn't expect that one post to have any ramifications.

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Funny ... I start a very worthy thread about the unusual and potentially historically warm signals on-going for March, and can't even clear a single page worth of interests.

Will starts an equally worthy thread about a chance ...however fleeting or not, for some additional snows to add to the paltry seasonal totals, and the thread blows up to 7 pages in heart beat, replete with threats to ban and/or excommunicate one's selves over petty rages ... Wow.

I suppose it shows where people's interests are. Cold and snow. That's it.

People, I don't buy it that since snow is the primary Meteorological event in New England, therefore, that is where the collective interest should be situated. Firstly, that is false - it is not primary. We have record heat, and albet somewhat rarefied comparitively, destructive tornados. In fact, for those that have studied that more closely, there is even a little "mini" tornado ally east of the Berks. Then there is the tropics. It's only "primary" because that is where the "primary interest is".

Yeah, it's okay to be into cold weather phenomenon, and you should, as either a budding, or a more fully evolved laureate in the field. But the use of the former is an over rationalization, and frankly, strikes me as an excuse. The evidences then falla out... sometimes I think this is less a Weather board, and more of an obsessive/compulsive snow collective.

That's fine. It is what is. No criticism there; if that is the collective's bag, that's the deal. This is a snow bard.

HOWEVER, It really seems to me that if folks were a bit more even-keeled with their interest set/draw (and here's the kicker), and were LESS emotive/personal over a natural component they have 0 control over ( ;) think about that) , there would be far less of these "squabbles", where the rabble dances around some suspected truer intent of an offender.

Anyway, this snow idea has a bit of a Norlun look to it. Using the NAM's mass fields - so as best to illustrate only - there is ton of lagging wind max(s) almost creating transient L/W axis up underneat our latitude, long after and cyclogen parametrics have gone into the NW Atlantic Basin. This generally induces a troughing in the lower level PP, and a convergence axis sets up roughly N NY through our backyards. Given sufficient RH, yeah...a band or two of snow would be supported. Norluns are fun ... they can be proficient producers, scoring very large at times when leading guidance may have been quite paltry with QPF. Wouldn't it be neat if ...

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BTW Steve...I'm just having good natured fun with you.

Please Brian you know me, I know you. Maybe I should post this, never ever anyone think I am angry or upset on this board. It's not me.

Some nice banding sigs. Should be great for some. I am on my way for a getaway weekend with Momma to watch and coach a softball tourney in NJ. Enjoy might be the last for some.

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Funny ... I start a very worthy thread about the unusual and potentially historically warm signals on-going for March, and can't even clear a single page worth of interests.

Will starts an equally worthy thread about a chance ...however fleeting or not, for some additional snows to add to the paltry seasonal totals, and the thread blows up to 7 pages in heart beat, replete with threats to ban and/or excommunicate one's selves over petty rages ... Wow.

I suppose it shows where people's interests are. Cold and snow. That's it.

People, I don't buy it that since snow is the primary Meteorological event in New England, therefore, that is where the collective interest should be situated. Firstly, that is false - it is not primary. We have record heat, and albet somewhat rarefied comparitively, destructive tornados. In fact, for those that have studied that more closely, there is even a little "mini" tornado ally east of the Berks. Then there is the tropics. It's only "primary" because that is where the "primary interest is".

Yeah, it's okay to be into cold weather phenomenon, and you should, as either a budding, or a more fully evolved laureate in the field. But the use of the former is an over rationalization, and frankly, strikes me as an excuse. The evidences then falla out... sometimes I think this is less a Weather board, and more of an obsessive/compulsive snow collective.

That's fine. It is what is. No criticism there; if that is the collective's bag, that's the deal. This is a snow bard.

HOWEVER, It really seems to me that if folks were a bit more even-keeled with their interest set/draw (and here's the kicker), and were LESS emotive/personal over a natural component they have 0 control over ( ;) think about that) , there would be far less of these "squabbles", where the rabble dances around some suspected truer intent of an offender.

Anyway, this snow idea has a bit of a Norlun look to it. Using the NAM's mass fields - so as best to illustrate only - there is ton of lagging wind max(s) almost creating transient L/W axis up underneat our latitude, long after and cyclogen parametrics have gone into the NW Atlantic Basin. This generally induces a troughing in the lower level PP, and a convergence axis sets up roughly N NY through our backyards. Given sufficient RH, yeah...a band or two of snow would be supported. Norluns are fun ... they can be proficient producers, scoring very large at times when leading guidance may have been quite paltry with QPF. Wouldn't it be neat if ...

It's not that the thread isn't interesting because you started it...it's just that this event tonight has some really cool mesoscale processes going on. The warmth just has no real appeal to many. It's a boring azz pattern to be honest. We are still in March, and this little guy tonight could be really neat for some.

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That's nice to see the SREF look nice for BOS...but that's roughly what it looked like last night for ORH and they got a coating.

Last night was a classic model bias of over doing the precip behind a front...this is different setup. Someone will get lucky in this. It could be good for us on the eastern hills...light NNE flow with the convergence of westerly flow just to our west...looks even better for NE MA.

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Could be some nice conv weenie snow somewhere along the coast. Maybe it becomes like 36F non acc snow..but fun for some.

Kind of a random question, but are norluns usually way under modeled in terms of qpf? Like could models only be spitting out 2-4" and someone pick up 8"? Is that usually case with these guys?

I hope Kevin gets no snow.

WILL! what are your thoughts????

What an awesome day! Get out there guys! :) :) :)

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it's HYA. lol.

The Cape is a wildcard here...they have northerly flow aligned well for OES enhancement of the inverted trough precip...they could get a 32-33F 4" paste or non-accumulating snow if it doesn't pan out...esp around 09z where 850 goes more northerly.

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RGEM destroys Essex county...it gives them like 7-8", lol

Hey Will, do you remember the famous Porltan Maine 18" event that took place off a forecast for 1-3" ... That was Norlun scenario. Not sure if you saw me post above ...but this definitely has a Norlun appeal when stepping back and taking the 55,000 foot view.

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Kind of a random question, but are norluns usually way under modeled in terms of qpf? Like could models only be spitting out 2-4" and someone pick up 8"? Is that usually case with these guys?

I hope Kevin gets no snow.

WILL! what are your thoughts????

What an awesome day! Get out there guys! :) :) :)

Well putting aside the bias for this winter to overall suck...this has the look to really "dump" on someone in a short period of time.

This has really strong convergence at the surface to almost 850mb based on the look of the 950 and 850 lows. The main s/w goes right over the ma/ct/ri border so that's good for areas near and to the north of it. I like the convergence look to it, because moist ne flow could realy be allowed to lift other rather rapidly since the air aloft is unstable. I could envision an area of light snows or snow showers moving ESE, but then a more narrow but rather intense band of snow move ESE as well...basically along the area of low level convergence. It might even develop a mini comma head as the low develops overhead and just offshore. It then might translate into an area of snow/snow showers along the MA coast as NE flow and high delta T's between the surface and 850 allow for this to occur. I think srn NH and NE MA seem like ground zero for now.

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