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Brief Winter shot discussion


ORH_wxman

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Coming down quite good, huge aggregates for the past fifteen twenty minutes have a heavy coating maybe .2 or .3" driveway mostly wet but accumulating on everything else nicely

I just flew in from Tokyo....in New York waiting to transfer to Bos then home. My partner said "We had at least an inch and there were parachutes." I'm so proud of him for using the weenie terminology! Torch until the spring blizzard in a few weeks...hope I'm in town for that.

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Suns out, a few cumulus, if it snowed I slept through it and no evidence. Killy is winter please!

Also, about the future and the recent past. In my original call, I was worried about the waking sun. Those concerns abound now as we move towards next winter. Stronger solar seems to correlate well with the AK vortex as it did in 2001-02. That said, if we can pull off a weak to no more than low end moderate niño we'll have a chance at a good winter.

One correlate is in the dustbin of history: squirrels. The signal was worthless this year and it single handedly changed my thinking. I feel like a damned fool.

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actually i think there is a bit of a surface reflection based on some of the obs and just the driving mechanisms behind the precip

still coming down at a good clip here. about 2" total.

Yup. Just looked at some of the obs. Some areas showing NNE. I'm still NNW now but I would imagine I'll veer E of N soon as the meso passes by.

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LOL, well we'll see. I hope the sun becomes quieter because imho, I don't think this is a coincidence that the AO is so +. You can go back and look at the winters with increased solar activity and there seems to be a relationship. Of course timing is everything and some winters will have different results.

That's not encouraging because I believe we are in an active solar cycle through 2016.

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Suns out, a few cumulus, if it snowed I slept through it and no evidence. Killy is winter please!

Also, about the future and the recent past. In my original call, I was worried about the waking sun. Those concerns abound now as we move towards next winter. Stronger solar seems to correlate well with the AK vortex as it did in 2001-02. That said, if we can pull off a weak to no more than low end moderate niño we'll have a chance at a good winter.

One correlate is in the dustbin of history: squirrels. The signal was worthless this year and it single handedly changed my thinking. I feel like a damned fool.

Jerry, I posted an article in early JAN, I think, that said strong sun w/a NINA was bad for blocking around the Pole, hence conducive to the Alaskan vortex

Got my fingers crossed for at least a weak NINO for next year... I like what I'm seeing too with the demise of the current NINA

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That's not encouraging because I believe we are in an active solar cycle through 2016.

Well it's a "low" solar max right now, and despite this max...it has times where it is quiet. It's not everything and we have had winters that were snowy even in a solar max.

Lets not forget that when the AO did go negative...it dumped the cold in Europe. Again, kind of bad luck here.

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I hope he is right. I really want that 3.8 inches to get 50 for the season.

I feel like at least 24" of the snowfall here this year was cheap throw away stuff - as in coating to 3 inch LES things where the ratio is like 20-1. It's just almost fake snow.

I mean I'll take it, but don't let these lake effect snow people fool you that their 100" inch snowfall season is an good as a 100" season in ENY or SNY where that came from nice heavy moisture laden Nor'easters. It's like the difference between a Chevy and a Mercedes.

Talk dirty big boy

Making note of the date you mentioned this

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I hope he is right. I really want that 3.8 inches to get 50 for the season.

I feel like at least 24" of the snowfall here this year was cheap throw away stuff - as in coating to 3 inch LES things where the ratio is like 20-1. It's just almost fake snow.

I mean I'll take it, but don't let these lake effect snow people fool you that their 100" inch snowfall season is an good as a 100" season in ENY or SNY where that came from nice heavy moisture laden Nor'easters. It's like the difference between a Chevy and a Mercedes.

12corvette-cent-z06-0071-le.jpg

lorinser-mercedes-glk-1-580x388.jpg

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Jerry, I posted an article in early JAN, I think, that said strong sun w/a NINA was bad for blocking around the Pole, hence conducive to the Alaskan vortex

Got my fingers crossed for at least a weak NINO for next year... I like what I'm seeing too with the demise of the current NINA

I am hoping for a 2001-02 to 2002-03 flip...even with a pretty robust niño.

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Jerry, I posted an article in early JAN, I think, that said strong sun w/a NINA was bad for blocking around the Pole, hence conducive to the Alaskan vortex

Got my fingers crossed for at least a weak NINO for next year... I like what I'm seeing too with the demise of the current NINA

It definitely shouldn't be given more weight than it is right now. It's just one of several things and we still don't quite understand it, but I think it is a factor. I'll take my chances anytime with a ridge out west which is what we will hopefully see next year.

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I just flew in from Tokyo....in New York waiting to transfer to Bos then home. My partner said "We had at least an inch and there were parachutes." I'm so proud of him for using the weenie terminology! Torch until the spring blizzard in a few weeks...hope I'm in town for that.

Most of it has already melted/sublimated as it was very high ratio/low moisture content. Theres maybe a half inch in the shady areas but it'll be gone in no time with the incoming torch. Would be nice to catch a late season storm to end this year on a good note.

You probably did better than here, pretty impressive totals in and around the lakes region.

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The airport only recorded a trace?

Saw a few flakes even as I was walking the dog just now

They might have had a few tenths, because I recorded 0.2" well after the snow ended when I got home...but its hard to say when they measured it or if they did at all...they haven't been measuring recently and are still missing the 3/1 data.

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