Tropopause_Fold Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 some of the srefs look decent actually. it's just a handful that move it way SW of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I wonder what the disconnect is because the SREFs actually increased probs for tonight to 55-60% for ORH...much higher than 09z which was around 35%. I still don't think much of tonight though... For tomorrow night it actually has some >20% probs for NE MA. Yeah I just saw that. Weird because the sref plume mean went from 1.2" to .2". It seems to run high anyway so it probably doesn't matter. 18z gfs looks like an inch or two is possible in the 8z to 11z timeframe but we'll see. It'll probably be only at elevation and melted by 12z if it even happens. 18z nam bufkit showed an inch too. edit: Nevermind. The sref plume did go up...I don't know what I was looking at. The mean is 1.3" or so but there's a cluster around 2" and then another cluster at hardly anything. There's a member that gives 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 18z nam/gfs look weak. i guess if i'm awake i'll look at euro tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I decided to make a separate thread for this brief shot of winter wx tomorrow night (Friday night) as it has trended a little more impressive with the upper level energy. Most guidance now has some sort of an inverted trough enhancing the upper level cold pool over SNE/CNE...it looks like the most favorable areas would be MA/ and S half of VT/NH (not counting the upslope fetish spots in N VT)...though the NAM tries to get CT into RI but its further south than any other guidance. You know I'm not very excited about much of anything up here...dunno why, just not feeling much. Maybe an inch on the mountain and a coating in town, but I'm really just expecting some non-accumulating flakes down here at 800ft. I think the inverted trough gives you guys in SNE a much better chance at some measurable (if that inverted trough occurs) than we have with upslope... just not seeing that strong of a NW flow and there's really no moisture left in the low levels to squeeze out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 EXPECT AREA OF STEADY PRECIP TO WORK ACROSS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. QPF FORECAST SUGGESTS ABOUT 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH FAST UPPER FLOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 06Z. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF THERE AS WELL...SO MAY ACTUALLY SEE CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. HOWEVER...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION AND...IF THERE IS...IT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MONADNOCKS AND E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH AND W MA TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I'll post the srefs just for fun Hope we can get 1-2" to piss off the spring people you and you're srefs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 NAM actually looks pretty decent for CT for tomorrow night...its been running a bit south of other guidance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 NAM actually looks pretty decent for CT for tomorrow night...its been running a bit south of other guidance though. nice little spin, some pretty intense lift albeit temporary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 NAM actually looks pretty decent for CT for tomorrow night...its been running a bit south of other guidance though. Yea there is a 3 inch bubble over Pete, me and MBRI, good luck with that. I will miss it anyway being out of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 That's a helluva 3 hr temp drop for IJD. Hrs 6/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 ^^ Everywhere really. ORH at 6h is not even close to a snow sounding to 9h is snow without a doubt if there's still precip around. edit: I fixed it. It wasn't ORH before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Probably ends as flakes like Will said, that clipper is interesting though. Total totals nearing 50 in some spots. Have to see how strong that really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Probably ends as flakes like Will said, that clipper is interesting though. Total totals nearing 50 in some spots. Have to see how strong that really is. Lot of low level convergence in that...a pretty decent norlun look to it with the intense cold pool aloft with some instability because of the relatively milder low levels. The type of snow that starts as 31-33F paste and then by the last couple hours its 24F and powder....we'll see if it pans out for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Yea there is a 3 inch bubble over Pete, me and MBRI, good luck with that. I will miss it anyway being out of town. Well, I'm heading home for the weekend tomorrow morning...so maybe I'll bring the snow with me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 The anafrontal snow in upstate NY, then VT and GC the Euro had on and off for a while seems to be developing, probably pasting heavy in the hills at times. 65 to SN + in some areas with elevation, spring has the strangest days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 The anafrontal snow in upstate NY, then VT and GC the Euro had on and off for a while seems to be developing, probably pasting heavy in the hills at times. 65 to SN + in some areas with elevation, spring has the strangest days. Heavy, heavy dongs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 That sure is one sharp CF. Nice ribbon of convection. Ah, Spring in New England. 70 today and snow tomorrow night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 3/17/93..a few days after superstorm 93. A mild dy..well into the 50s. Sharp fropa and I Ieave for dinner with rain and 47. Anal frontal 6 inches...powder...on NW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Rain/snow line about to make it to KALB...can't wait until it makes it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 0z gfs looks best for extreme coastal SW maine area.....with light qpf amounts for at least 12 hours over SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 0z gfs looks best for extreme coastal SW maine area.....with light qpf amounts for at least 12 hours over SNE Yeah... at the very least snow will be in the air at 4am ( no one will notice) and then again after 5pm tomrrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Front just blast through here. Wild winds! It flipped from SW to NW in about a minute and you could feel the sudden gust of cold air as it crashed through. Temps have dropped over 10° in just over 10 minutes! Was 59.7 at 10:47, it 48.6 at 10:59 and still crashing. Rain just beginning. Could turn to some snowflakes later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 And I mean...18z liked N NH and N VT...so it probably comes down to who gets in the good banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 this front is amazing, have you all noticed the super cells popping at the tail end of it in TX/MX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 PSF was 60F at the 10pm obs....41F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 A few wet flakes mixing in @ 33.6 degrees. Rain/snow line about to make it to KALB...can't wait until it makes it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 this front is amazing, have you all noticed the super cells popping at the tail end of it in TX/MX? my pantalone's are off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 waiting for the front to get here going to go outside and see nature at its best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Precip just started. 47 RA-/RA I'll stay up until midnight to see if we get any good gusts and what the temp drop is like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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