ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Initial pulse of precip develops as it moves across SNE and the waters to the south rocketing ENE....moving so fast it's probably rain or just mangled flakes. Once it gets out east of Plymouth and Boston it begins to take on that distinct curl, maybe clipping into NE MA and scratching along the coast as it moves SE while fading. I don't see this doing much anywhere. Maybe areas from Boston north along the coast can cash in, but who cares otherwise, this will be a radar tease as nice banding sets up just offshore. Most places aren't going to get much...but someone will get lucky from the S tip of Maine to the MA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 A reminder to people, that Blizz loses the bet if any of the climo stations picks up 2" BOS is in the running, as is ORH ORH is out..everything has shifted east and North..BOS is actually close to being out if the north shift continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Most places aren't going to get much...but someone will get lucky from the S tip of Maine to the MA coast. it'll be good to see some snow flying. these are always big nowcasts too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Would/will be cool to go from having a t-storm this AM to snow tomorrow morning. I thought it was really neat to go from 66° yesterday to having snow this morning at my place. The cold front was pretty neat around 0100 with a 10° drop in 10 minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Was there thunder last night? Someone at work told me they heard thunder in Glastonbury overnight. All i cared about was that i got snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Most places aren't going to get much...but someone will get lucky from the S tip of Maine to the MA coast. Very unstable look off the coast right now. Load sof virga and clouds rocketing SSW from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 BOX: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROF AND POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SNE TONIGHT. SFC REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE SFC BOUNDARY TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENG BY SAT MORNING. A NORLUN TROF SIGNATURE SETS UP ACROSS NEW ENG WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NEW ENG...BUT IT IS NOT A CERTAINTY WHERE THIS OCCURS. NORMALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS SNOWFALL IS FOCUSED IN A NARROW BAND ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY. IF YOU ARE NOT IN A BAND...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE VERY LIGHT. IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THESE BANDS WILL SET UP AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES TYPICALLY DICTATE WHERE THIS HAPPENS...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS NOT HIGH. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TARGETING AREAS FROM S NH THROUGH NE MA...MAINLY N OF ORE-ORH-PYM FOR BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS FAVORS CLIMATOLOGY SO WE ARE USING THIS AS A BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. EVEN 18Z NAM IS STARTING TO COME AROUND TO GFS AS IT HAS SHIFTED THE QPF AXIS TO THE N. THERE IS DECENT SNOW GROWTH OMEGA AND EXCELLENT INSTABILITY AS -35 TO -40C 500 MB TEMPS MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS RESULTS IN VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT SPIKE INTO UPPER 50S SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IN ANY SNOW BANDS. OUR LATEST FORECAST IS FOR 1-4" FROM S NH THROUGH E MA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS S NH AND NE MA. NO ADVISORIES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE SNOW BANDS WILL SET UP...BUT LATER FOERCASTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ONE. Very unstable look off the coast right now. Load sof virga and clouds rocketing SSW from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 On the line between 1-2" and <1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 18z NAM's FRH grid shows slightly more QPF than the 12z for BOS, as well ... an interval of 50 degree wind, which as more eastward component than the 12z. That actually makes the NORLUN checklist a little more convincing, actually. Have to remember, the NAM QPF is just a model depiction. If there are meso-physical or beta-micro-scaled physical processes going on that even the NAM is not detecting above crued hum than said QPF can be significantly under stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 SREF plume average is 2" at KBOS now. Down to 1.2" or so at ORH...with a few members much higher but most less then 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 ORH is out..everything has shifted east and North..BOS is actually close to being out if the north shift continues Looks that way, But with this type of thing I could see it vary 30-50 miles in any direction... maybe the fish enjoy 2" Or MaineJaybird dances nude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 EC ens QPF axis looks similar to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 18z GFS is similar to the 12z run except it beefed up QPF in S NH and NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 18z GFS is similar to the 12z run except it beefed up QPF in S NH and NE MA. Flurries for us while socks gets advisory snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Flurries for us while socks gets advisory snow? Looks a little further east than him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Looks like Dendrite to PSM FTW on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 AWT GFS hugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 LOL look at Kevin trying to wish away snow for the rest of us. What a D-bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Flurries for us while socks gets advisory snow? GFS gives us around an inch. Socks gets hit good and all along the MA/NH border and up into S NH. Nice stripe of 0.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 LOL look at Kevin trying to wish away snow for the rest of us. What a D-bag. The more he keeps saying nobody will get much, the better this has a chance with the way his calls have gone this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 The more he keeps saying nobody will get much, the better this has a chance with the way his calls have gone this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 GFS gives us around an inch. Socks gets hit good and all along the MA/NH border and up into S NH. Nice stripe of 0.25" N Chelmsford jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 34/21, flakeage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 First of the squalls rolling in here. Visibility quickly dropping below a mile. Best of it looks to go just to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Models really keying in on SE NH/NE MASS for a band of 3+. HRRR has a really compact band in se NH with 6"...but a coating for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I've concluded that the HRRR is practically useless. It's just a really bad model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I've concluded that the HRRR is practically useless. It's just a really bad model. Yeah I know...but its in general agreement with the rest of guidance with somewhere near ASH-RAY-BOS for a decent band. Looks like se of there will most likely be shutout, but you never know with events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 MHT/PSM v. KFIT /BVY where will norlun/enhanced band set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 The more he keeps saying nobody will get much, the better this has a chance with the way his calls have gone this winter. On record now..flurries for TOL and ORH..maybe a feather dusting in BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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