ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Watch Kevin get a rogue squall now and do better than here in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I hope the nam and srefs are right with this...but either way it will be nice to see some snow in the air even if I don't pick up accumulation. FWIW HRRR doesn't have much of anything...but I'm not sure how it does in this type of set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I hope the nam and srefs are right with this...but either way it will be nice to see some snow in the air even if I don't pick up accumulation. FWIW HRRR doesn't have much of anything...but I'm not sure how it does in this type of set-up. My area up to your area isn't getting more than flurries.. This is an exclusive far eastern New Eng event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 12z RGEM total precip as snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 so classic....the good bye kiss of winter but we'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 My area up to your area isn't getting more than flurries.. This is an exclusive far eastern New Eng event LOL, probably not, but I wouldn't be surprised if we got an inch. I wouldn't bet on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Are you getting emotionally invested in your backyard over an inverted trough? Never a good idea. Someone will get lucky, we just don't know who yet...but never count on it IYBY. Further east and northeast is usually favored in these...but some OES component may give a boost to the south shore and the Cape. i'm just wondering what your confidence is in wide spread coatings with 2-3 in a localized area from S coast to SNH? i.e bust potential with this ...thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 i'm just wondering what your confidence is in wide spread coatings with 2-3 in a localized area from S coast to SNH? i.e bust potential with this ...thing. I'm pretty confident most people will have light snow and snow showers in E MA and the interior, esp N of the pike...2-3" amounts I'm not as confident in but I do think someone will get it...just not sure if it will end up in a 25-30 mile long stripe or just a spot amount or two. Some models develop this a bit sooner than others...Euro waits until nearly morning to really get anything heavier going though it would probably put down a coating to an inch in a lot of areas overnight in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Euro it really alone on waiting till morning...SREF, RUC, NAM and GFS all have it around 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 thanks will i and many others appreciate the way you will do more than just a broad brush job and put some balls on the table so to speak. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 are the meso models a bit more reliable in these type of set up's historically for the "where may the jpot set up" and timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 18z RUC really loves ORH county between 03z and 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 18z RUC really loves ORH county between 03z and 09z. Messenger...is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Meso models usually have the right idea in terms of showing a narrow, but potent area of precip, but obviously if it is off by 20 miles or so..that's a big deal for someone living within or outside that band. I like the idea of this being areas of snow showers with a narrow band producing mdt to possibly hvy snow briefly. It may become a little more widespread along coastal areas as the trough moves in and offshore...all the while cold ne winds develop. That may cause areas of light snow or bands of heavier snow showers to come in off the water late tonight and tomorow. At that point, probably favors more se MA in classic OES fashion. I still think this seems more srn NH on down into ne MA and maybe up into ext srn ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 18z RUC really loves ORH county between 03z and 09z. Nice 30dbz band moving through 10pm-1am...is it true they're getting rid of the RUC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 euro now has that distinct comma look as well. it even tries to briefly close an 850 low off CHH tomorrow AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Nice 30dbz band moving through 10pm-1am...is it true they're getting rid of the RUC? I haven't heard....this image is only through 06z...but you can see the nice band and where its setting up for several hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 RUC actually closes off H7 at 12z tomorrow overhead. At 850mb, you can see that cool isotherm structure with cold air moving east to the south of the 850 track and weak WAA to the north. Right in that transition zone is where you'll have some frontogenesis and that band of heavier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 nam 120310/0300Z 15 31003KT 30.5F SNOW 23:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 23:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 120310/0400Z 16 VRB02KT 30.5F SNOW 19:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 20:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 120310/0500Z 17 VRB02KT 30.5F SNOW 18:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 19:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0 120310/0600Z 18 29003KT 30.5F SNOW 18:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 19:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120310/0700Z 19 34003KT 29.9F SNOW 18:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 19:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 120310/0800Z 20 02007KT 28.8F SNOW 21:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058 19:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 100| 0| 0 120310/0900Z 21 02010KT 26.0F SNOW 22:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 20:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0 120310/1000Z 22 01009KT 25.2F SNOW 21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 20:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0 120310/1100Z 23 36008KT 25.1F SNOW 19:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 20:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 16z HRRR likes York County ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 18z RUC really loves ORH county between 03z and 09z. That means that area is perfectly safe from accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 16z HRRR likes York County ME. Yup...3-6" in a small 15 mile wide band...not even flurries for eastern Mass. But its the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 We'll have to watch for that late bloomer type action that the RUC and HRRR don't go out far enough to see...RUC sort of sees it by 18 hours, but those models beyond 6 or 8 hours are quite unreliable...the closing off at H7 and H85 are a definite signal for some enhancement over E MA/SE NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Given the ULL track, I could see areas from central VT and NH into srn ME maybe getting more general synoptic lighter snows. That would make sense north of the track. However, closer to the ULL itself, the more heavier band of snow may lie thanks to stronger low level convergence. So, the screw potential is higher across SNE since we may not see the more widespread lighter snows that parts of CNE may get...but the opportunity to cash in is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Seems like it's continuing to shift North up into NH and Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Given the ULL track, I could see areas from central VT and NH into srn ME maybe getting more general synoptic lighter snows. That would make sense north of the track. However, closer to the ULL itself, the more heavier band of snow may lie thanks to stronger low level convergence. So, the screw potential is higher across SNE since we may not see the more widespread lighter snows that parts of CNE may get...but the opportunity to cash in is there. 2" is cashing in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Nice 30dbz band moving through 10pm-1am...is it true they're getting rid of the RUC? The RUC is being replaced by the RAP. Essentially the same thing, although they will be adding one domain that will be larger than the current RUC domain. Otherwise the RAP will have the same set of data that the RUC had. The switchover is supposed to happen on March 20th, with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 2" is cashing in? In this winter it is...someone could actually get more than that if a band intensifies for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Seems like it's continuing to shift North up into NH and Maine. LOL, anything for you not to lose your bet 2" is cashing in? Yes. The RUC is being replaced by the RAP. Essentially the same thing, although they will be adding one domain that will be larger than the current RUC domain. Otherwise the RAP will have the same set of data that the RUC had. The switchover is supposed to happen on March 20th, with the 12z run. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 NAM should fold and remove the threat from around here in moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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