Turtle Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Hey Will, do you remember the famous Portland Maine 18" event that took place off a forecast for 1-3" ... That was Norlun scenario. Not sure if you saw me post above ...but this definitely has a Norlun appeal when stepping back and taking the 55,000 foot view. You are prob thinking of March 1992...that norlun band actually traveled down the coast and gave parts of E MA like 8" of snow when almost nothing was forecast. Actually Scott you might be right...the snow I'm thinking of fell on Sunday night that year....which looking at NARR maps was a synoptic system moving in right on the heels of the norlun...the norlun was more Sat into Sunday morning. So while we did get like 3-4" of snow, it was not from the norlun I don't think...maybe a light amount from it. Oh, yes, do I remember this event! March 21, 1992...first day of spring. I was worked the day shift at the old WSFO PWM then. A cold front was moving through that Sat night, then weakened and stalled right along the coast from PWM to near the ME border overnight. I worked that morning, with little more than a couple of inches of snow forecast. So much for that!!! The NORLUN set up perfectly. As it got brighter outside, we had about 10" of snow on the ground OVERNIGHT where I lived in South Portland! Old Orchard Beach had 3-4"/hr snowfall rates overnight...and I think they total was 18" as I recall. We went from nothing to a winter storm warning in a matter of a few hours. We never heard the end of that one. It was a coast hugger, that's for sure! This also had an interesting visible satellite presentation after sunrise. You could actually see a little swirl work down the coast toward Cape Ann. They got decent snow out of it. With hindsight, you could make it out (barely) on IR satellite as well, but not the swirl that could be seen on visible after sunrise. Very interesting event, and one I won't forget. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 It looks like the only places that get any accumulations tonight are Far Eastern Mass down to the SE coast. Because I didn't see this event coming..and I don't think anyone did. After this..it's over would not surprise me to see this event grossly underperform like most events have this year-especially in the Boston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Looking at WV, it does seem like NE MA and srn NH/ME would be favored. Kind of a crude analysis anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Looking at WV, it does seem like NE MA and srn NH/ME would be favored. Kind of a crude analysis anyways. climo would tend to agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 climo would tend to agree with that. And then maybe turn into an OES deal as that arc of moisture pinwheels down the coast? Part of the fun with these is seeing how they evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Euro really likes E MA right on the coast and especially Cape Cod. Its later than other models in blossoming the precip...it has the best precip on Saturday morning rather than the overnight and predawn hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Nice Euro run for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Really nice out side... That sun cutting around the edge of those flat cumulus takes one out of metality of this thread's topic - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Euro really likes E MA right on the coast and especially Cape Cod. Its later than other models in blossoming the precip...it has the best precip on Saturday morning rather than the overnight and predawn hours. ORH on outside looking in this time. Rare, but it can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 South Weymouth would probably be a good spot on the Euro given its slightly colder temps than the Cape. Jackpot on Euro def seems to be somewhere on the south shore to perhaps the Cape if they can overcome marginal BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 haha, Kevin trying to goad Will - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 ORH on outside looking in this time. Rare, but it can happen All guidance has measurable snow here...just not jackpot....typical of inverted/norlun troughs. We'll often get some while E MA jackpots and you get partly cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Flurries here @2k. Glad the big April bomb is now a certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 South Weymouth would probably be a good spot on the Euro given its slightly colder temps than the Cape. Jackpot on Euro def seems to be somewhere on the south shore to perhaps the Cape if they can overcome marginal BL. I had the Brockton area in my mind, so not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 I had the Brockton area in my mind, so not bad. Yeah they might do well...it will be really tough to pin down who gets the lucky band until the event is almost happening. Euro has been a bit inconsistent too...I'd still prob guess somewhere in NE MA or SE NH gets the most, but its possible with the OES contribution that the south shore could do well too when that wind goes more NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Not expecting anything IMBY, will develop a bit too far north for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 All guidance has measurable snow here...just not jackpot....typical of inverted/norlun troughs. We'll often get some while E MA jackpots and you get partly cloudy skies. Most inv trofs favor my area over yours. You'll get snow..but I typically do better on those specific setups. so if that happens with that type of setup I would get more than you tonight... With all that said..I doubt either one of us sees much of anything..maybe some flurrries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 ok so what's the shot this doesn't get it's act together untill a bit later than modeled and we get skunked or the band doesn't occur or is over long island sound and buzz bay. just not getn' excited about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 A few flurries, really? I'd wager I see an inch or two here in Lowell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Most inv trofs favor my area over yours. You'll get snow..but I typically i do better on those specific setups. so if that happens with tat type of setup I would get more than you tonight... With all that said..I doubt either one of us sees much of anything..maybe some flurrries Lol...you'll have to provide some examples. You completely made that up. I cannot recall hardly any inverted troughs where you did better. Only one I can think of was Jan 7, 2011. Most of them like 2/28/11, 2/3/09, 12/20/07, 2/22/07, 12/20/08, 1/19/09 you did worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 ok so what's the shot this doesn't get it's act together untill a bit later than modeled and we get skunked or the band doesn't occur or is over long island sound and buzz bay. just not getn' excited about this Are you getting emotionally invested in your backyard over an inverted trough? Never a good idea. Someone will get lucky, we just don't know who yet...but never count on it IYBY. Further east and northeast is usually favored in these...but some OES component may give a boost to the south shore and the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Yeah they might do well...it will be really tough to pin down who gets the lucky band until the event is almost happening. Euro has been a bit inconsistent too...I'd still prob guess somewhere in NE MA or SE NH gets the most, but its possible with the OES contribution that the south shore could do well too when that wind goes more NE. It is a crap shoot in some respects. Upstream guidance and climo would weigh my forecast heavily on this. I would hedge N as has been stated with these inverted trough systems. They do like to hit the NE MA up into coastal NH/ME more that anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Lol...you'll have to provide some examples. You completely made that up. I cannot recall hardly any inverted troughs where you did better. Only one I can think of was Jan 7, 2011. Most of them like 2/28/11, 2/3/09, 12/20/07, 2/22/07, 12/20/08, 1/19/09 you did worse. There was one in Ded 1988 I believe, Feb 2007 I had more..I had 5 and I think you had 4..there was an April one in 2008 when you had virga and I had 5.5...a few others too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 blizz forecasts have inadvertentely become a reliable tool , as they are now most accurate when you take the opposite of what is forecast with certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 lol @ 9 pages (depending on your settings) in 24 hours regarding a possible light snow event for a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 There was one in Ded 1988 I believe, Feb 2007 I had more..I had 5 and I think you had 4..there was an April one in 2008 when you had virga and I had 5.5...a few others too Dec '88 was mostly west of us in the Berkshires and W CT....you might have had an inch or two while there was an inch here. Feb '07 you had less than me...you reported 4.2" while I had 5". I have no idea what you are talking about in April '08...I don't even remember an event that month. Climo favors north and east in these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Dec '88 was mostly west of us in the Berkshires and W CT....you might have had an inch or two while there was an inch here. Feb '07 you had less than me...you reported 4.2" while I had 5". I have no idea what you are talking about in April '08...I don't even remember an event that month. Climo favors north and east in these events. Maybe it was April 07...I had back to back events..with like 2 inches..then 5.5 a day or 2 later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 LOL. The one inv trough from last Jan 2011 has tainted Kevin's opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Lol...you'll have to provide some examples. You completely made that up. I cannot recall hardly any inverted troughs where you did better. Only one I can think of was Jan 7, 2011. Most of them like 2/28/11, 2/3/09, 12/20/07, 2/22/07, 12/20/08, 1/19/09 you did worse. Longtime lurker but know who knows what on here. Kevin trying to take on Will over snow totals is like Wiz challenging Ray to a drinking contest. 1st round TKO !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 LOL. The one inv trough from last Jan 2011 has tainted Kevin's opinion. The fact that he had to go all the way back to Dec '88 for an example is telling too...we can probably come up with about 15-20 inverted trough events in the 1990s and early 2000s that ORH did better than his area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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