ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I decided to make a separate thread for this brief shot of winter wx tomorrow night (Friday night) as it has trended a little more impressive with the upper level energy. Most guidance now has some sort of an inverted trough enhancing the upper level cold pool over SNE/CNE...it looks like the most favorable areas would be MA/ and S half of VT/NH (not counting the upslope fetish spots in N VT)...though the NAM tries to get CT into RI but its further south than any other guidance. Euro has some snow shower activity with measurable for most of SNE with some enhancement as exits stage right in E MA/Cape. Probably not much in the way of accumulations except maybe a dusting to an inch in the higher terrain...but maybe someone will get a bit luckier. Marginal BL would probably prevent some half decent accumulations on the Cape. But many should see some flakes in the air late tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I'll post the srefs just for fun Hope we can get 1-2" to piss off the spring people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I decided to make a separate thread for this brief shot of winter wx tomorrow night (Friday night) as it has trended a little more impressive with the upper level energy. Most guidance now has some sort of an inverted trough enhancing the upper level cold pool over SNE/CNE...it looks like the most favorable areas would be MA/ and S half of VT/NH (not counting the upslope fetish spots in N VT)...though the NAM tries to get CT into RI but its further south than any other guidance. Euro has some snow shower activity with measurable for most of SNE with some enhancement as exits stage right in E MA/Cape. Probably not much in the way of accumulations except maybe a dusting to an inch in the higher terrain...but maybe someone will get a bit luckier. Marginal BL would probably prevent some half decent accumulations on the Cape. But many should see some flakes in the air late tomorrow night. Yeah we talked about it briefly earlier today...probably good to break off a new disco since it will probably get buried by the warmth talk. Some really good surface convergence with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Looking at the sref/ec isn't this more for late tonight/ tomorrow morning? edit: Nevermind, I guess part 1 is tonight with rain showers changing to snow, srefs are more aggressive with changing it over to snow. Then there is the other part late tomorrow that could bring an inch or two but its probably for CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 Lol...you are obsessed with the SREFs. They actually have the max probabilities for an inch of snow in SNE for Friday night...but they aren't very impressive. In the 10-20% range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Euro actually was kind of nice looking in ern areas. Inv trough looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Lol...you are obsessed with the SREFs. They actually have the max probabilities for an inch of snow in SNE for Friday night...but they aren't very impressive. In the 10-20% range. I know... I was more posting it as a joke though But actually most models do change us over to snow even tonight... gfs sounding is pretty funny for 9z. 120309/0900Z 21 28019KT 31.9F SNOW 12:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.213 12:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 I know... I was more posting it as a joke though But actually most models do change us over to snow even tonight... gfs sounding is pretty funny for 9z. 120309/0900Z 21 28019KT 31.9F SNOW 12:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.213 12:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0 We will prob end as some flakes, but models often get too aggressive with the precip behind the front, so I doubt we get any accumulation, but if its moderate for 45 minutes then it could start to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 What was I looking at? dongs I was told , dongs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 No, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Euro actually was kind of nice looking in ern areas. Inv trough looking. yeah that's pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 yeah that's pretty solid. Could be a nice burst on the Cape if temps get in the 32-34F range in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 What was I looking at? dongs I was told , dongs. That was it. Now we just need verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Could be a nice burst on the Cape if temps get in the 32-34F range in time. i'm sure in solid 11-12 winter fashion it'll be a 38F -rn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 i'm sure in solid 11-12 winter fashion it'll be a 38F -rn. 36F here. Looks like all the 12z guidance does have some sort of inverted trough. I think it ends up further N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 interesting ..if not unbelievable little winter period .....for tomm nite.....it's nearly 70 and windy right now in wakefield, ma but snow en route ....let's trend this thing stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 its a long shot but could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 18z nam looks like it cools enough for maybe a coating or a little more late tonight....but as Will said most models usually bring in the cool air too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 18z nam looks like it cools enough for maybe a coating or a little more....but as Will said most models usually bring in the cool air too fast. Its not that, its they usually over do the precip behind it. The precip likes to shut off quickly because of subsidence. I'm sure there will be some flakes to end it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 SREFs came back down to earth. Several members at 9z had 2-3" here with a mean over 1". 15z has one over .5" and a mean of .2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Would be nice to muster up a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 Would be nice to muster up a coating. Late tomorrow night has a decent chance for some spots...that inverted trough with thicknesses near 510 would prob produce some nice snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Highly unlikely for anyone except MRG land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Highly unlikely for anyone except MRG land 3 weeks ago you would have locked in 1-3 for YBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 3 weeks ago Last week you would have locked in 1-3 for YBY. FYP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Would be nice to muster up a coating. Haven't you tortured yourself enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I just want ORH to get 2.1". Everyone else gets nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 SREFs came back down to earth. Several members at 9z had 2-3" here with a mean over 1". 15z has one over .5" and a mean of .2". I wonder what the disconnect is because the SREFs actually increased probs for tonight to 55-60% for ORH...much higher than 09z which was around 35%. I still don't think much of tonight though... For tomorrow night it actually has some >20% probs for NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Haven't you tortured yourself enough? Well who knows if they will be my last ones. You guys still can squeeze out some more snow and likely will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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