Winter 2011-2012 Post-Mortem Thread

[snowstormcanuck]

That 13.4" from 1936-37 seems to be a typo on DTX's climo page...that winter actually was 12.9", so DTWs range for top 10 snowless is 12.9-18.0". Chicagos is 9.8-20.0", Minneapolis 14.2-22.4", so you get the drift. Torontos futility is still better than many other places of fairly similar snowfall climo. The unfortunate thing is you are living it whereas pretty much every other city has their all-time low set way in the past. It can only get better

Least snowy winter set in....

Lansing: 1863-64

Milwaukee: 1884-85

Toledo: 1889-90

Grand Rapids: 1905-06

Indianapolis: 1918-19

Cleveland: 1918-19

Chicago: 1920-21

Minneapolis: 1930-31

St Louis: 1931-32

Detroit: 1936-37

Boston: 1936-37

Green Bay: 1960-61

Madison: 1967-68

La Crosse: 1967-68

Toronto: 2009-10

Yup.4 of the top 10 least snowiest winters at Pearson and 5 at downtown have been since 2000. Ok, mother nature. We've taken our medicine. Back to how it was in the 1970s starting in 2012-13.

[michsnowfreak]

Yeah, I was using a rhetorical example.

But the point I was trying to make about the stat padding snowfall is that a hypothetical very warm winter with low snowfall could have been much more interesting with five 5" storms that melt very quickly rather than a multitude of small events that melt very quickly keeping snow cover days constant in both examples.

I would much rather have a winter that gets six 8" snows for a seasonal total of 48" with 30 days of snow cover than a winter that sees 60" of snow from no event bigger than 4" and has 30 days of snow cover. Even increase that second example up to 40 days and it still wouldn't be better IMO.

Yeah I figured. And I do get what your saying. Its hard to say...I certainly do see the appeal of having the five 5" events scenario over more numerous nickel/dimes both equaling 25", but then on the other hand youd see a lot less time with snow filling the air in the 5 storms example. Either way, its really a splitting hairs choice for me, as I would NEVER chose EITHER if it was up to me to script a winter

[michsnowfreak]

See 04-05 vs 06-07 here. 06-07 actually had a higher seasonal total but ala much like this winter there was not a single warning criteria event as far as snowfall goes imby. To me 06-07 was far worse. The two biggest events in 06-07 also happened out of season and thus early Oct and in April.

Anyways i agree 100%

Naturally I would choose 2004-05 in a heartbeat over 2006-07, but wow. The wonders of the differences between here and there never cease to amaze. I literally doubled my 06-07 (41.9") total in 04-05 (82.1"). And biggest event of 06-07, fwiw, happened "in season" with the VD storm with 8.5". Next biggest was 2.7".

[michsnowfreak]

Yup.4 of the top 10 least snowiest winters at Pearson and 5 at downtown have been since 2000. Ok, mother nature. We've taken our medicine. Back to how it was in the 1970s starting in 2012-13.

I do think better times are ahead in 2012-13. And for ME, I know I will appreciate it if it is better. Just last spring, as we wrapped up another winner, the best of them all for my winter grading scale, I was all worried that all these years of 60-70"+ winters would make me not appreciate a 40-50" winter when that would come. Oh, how wrong I was, after living through a (so-far) 25.5" winter less than a year later. Im ready for 2012-13 Ma Nature, and I will graciously accept merely a climo snowcover winter!!!

[hm8]

With 0.3" and 0.2" the two days before this one respectively, we've officially accomplished the most pathetic 40" winter ever here.

[hm8]

With 0.3" and 0.2" the two days before this one respectively, we've officially accomplished the most pathetic 40" winter ever here.

Lets break it down....

Days with snowfall...

< 1" : 28

1 - 2" : 7

2 - 3" : 5

3 - 4" : 2

> 4" : 0

Note: These are 24-hour periods. If we were to look at storm totals instead, the 2-3 and 3-4 numbers would be a bit larger.

Days with snow cover...

T : 23

1" : 15

2" : 7

3" : 6

4" : 1

> 4" : 0

Biggest storm:

3.6"

(There was also a storm with that was followed by some lake effect snow that added to 4.3")

[michsnowfreak]

Lets break it down....

Days with snowfall...

< 1" : 28

1 - 2" : 7

2 - 3" : 5

3 - 4" : 2

> 4" : 0

Note: These are 24-hour periods. If we were to look at storm totals instead, the 2-3 and 3-4 numbers would be a bit larger.

Days with snow cover...

T : 23

1" : 15

2" : 7

3" : 6

4" : 1

> 4" : 0

Biggest storm:

3.6"

(There was also a storm with that was followed by some lake effect snow that added to 4.3")

Nice analysis. Heres for my backyard, calendar day snowfall (T not included)

Nov 30: 0.6”

Nov total… 0.6”

Dec 02: 0.1”

Dec 05: 2.4”

Dec 09: 0.9”

Dec 17: 0.4”

Dec 24: 0.2”

Dec 27: 0.7”

Dec 29: 0.1”

Dec total... 4.8”

Jan 01: 0.3”

Jan 02: 0.1”

Jan 13: 1.7”

Jan 14: 2.5”

Jan 19: 0.8”

Jan 20: 2.3”

Jan 21: 0.2” (storm total 2.5”)

Jan 27: 0.7”

Jan 28: 0.6”

Jan 29: 1.7”

Jan total… 10.9”

Feb 10: 3.9”

Feb 11: 1.0” (storm total 4.9”)

Feb 14: 1.2”

Feb 21: 0.6”

Feb 23: 1.1”

Feb 24: 1.1” (storm total 2.2”)

Feb 25: 0.1”

Feb total… 9.0”

Mar 04: 0.1”

Mar 09: 0.1”

Mar so far…0.2”….season so far 25.5”

8am Snow Depth:

T… 21 days

1”… 8 days

2”… 4 days

3”… 5 days

4”… 2 days

5”… 1 days

If the snow season is done (still a big IF), I have seen 43.9” LESS of snow this winter than last, and 61 days LESS of 1”+ snowcover this winter than last. Not to mention most of last winters 81 days were 5”+ and most of this winters 20 days were 3” or less.

[Hoosier]

ORD is still at 19.8".  Barring something unusual, this will be the first sub 20" season for Chicago since 1948-49.

[SpartyOn]

Finished here at 25 and change.

[Chicago Storm]

ORD is still at 19.8". Barring something unusual, this will be the first sub 20" season for Chicago since 1948-49.

...And the 10th least amount of snow in a winter on record.

[cyclone77]

19" here. Most of that fell during a one week period in mid-late Jan.

[michsnowfreak]

ORD is still at 19.8". Barring something unusual, this will be the first sub 20" season for Chicago since 1948-49.

Wow that was an impressive streak, Detroit has not had a sub 20" season since 1968-69 (although 1982-83 finished at exactly 20.0").

Detroits 26.0" makes this the 23rd least snowy winter on record, which is certainly not of historical note but way below normal.

In the last 10 years, Detroit had the...

4th snowiest winter (71.7" - 2007-08)

5th snowiest winter (69.1" - 2010-11)

9th snowiest winter (65.7" - 2008-09

10th snowiest winter (63.8" - 2004-05)

13th snowiest winter (60.9" - 2002-03)

19th least snowy winter (24.1" - 2003-04)

23rd least snowy winter (26.0" - 2011-12)

[Geos]

The last 10 winter have overall been impressive around here! Especially the last 4 before this one. Will see if the snowy streak picks back up for '12-'13.

[mnweather]

This Winter for me was about the same as last year snow wise. A lot better than the 09-10 season with only 27". Biggest storm dropped 14" this year.

[Powerball]

This Winter for me was about the same as last year snow wise. A lot better than the 09-10 season with only 27". Biggest storm dropped 14" this year.

Lucky you.

A storm hasn't dumped 14" here since 1974.

[michsnowfreak]

Few more snow factoids about this winter. Detroit saw 27 days with measurable snow this winter, which is 10 days below the average and only 12 other winters in the past 100 years saw less days....however 10 of those days saw 1"+, and while that is below the average of 13 days, its not even close to being in the low category,as 1 out of every 3-4 winters sees 10 or fewer days

Even WITH this pitiful 26-inch winter, the running 10-year average for snowfall for Detroit (2002-03 thru 2011-12), is still 10 inches above the longterm average. Impressive decade to say the least.

This winter has further cemented what i already knew; for me, as important as snowfall, snowstorms, and cold are...snowcover IS the KEY ingredient to a Michigan winter.

[mnweather]

Few more snow factoids about this winter. Detroit saw 27 days with measurable snow this winter, which is 10 days below the average and only 12 other winters in the past 100 years saw less days....however 10 of those days saw 1"+, and while that is below the average of 13 days, its not even close to being in the low category,as 1 out of every 3-4 winters sees 10 or fewer days

Even WITH this pitiful 26-inch winter, the running 10-year average for snowfall for Detroit (2002-03 thru 2011-12), is still 10 inches above the longterm average. Impressive decade to say the least.

This winter has further cemented what i already knew; for me, as important as snowfall, snowstorms, and cold are...snowcover IS the KEY ingredient to a Michigan winter.

I would agree with you, what I would worry about is there going to be pay back for this? In other words are there going to be some low snow winters ahead?

[michsnowfreak]

I would agree with you, what I would worry about is there going to be pay back for this? In other words are there going to be some low snow winters ahead?

Well, its certainly possible, thats how averages come to be (though we saw more our share of low-snow winters in the 1930s-40s, wayy before my time). 2011-12 certainly humbled me, proving that Detroits ungodly stretch of winters would and did end....it wasnt turning into some microclimate of snowbelt bliss, it was just in one hell of a stretch. And besides, while a low-snow winter is not welcome, it can be tolerable based on other conditions such as cold and snowcover.

Since DTW conveniently finished the season at an even number, I decided to look for all seasons that ended up +/- 1 inch of snow to this years total, in other words, every winter that finished with a total snowfall of 25-27 inches of snow at Detroit

I have the winter, the total snowfall, the DJF mean temp, the biggest storm that winter, and the total days with 1"+ snow on the ground. The first set is the norms for a winter in Detroit. Clearly, while total snowfall was near identical in the winters listed below, the conditions were widely variable...and the winters certainly felt different.

NORM...: 42.7" - 27.9F - N/A - 48 days

1988-89 : 25.1" - 28.5F - 4.1" - 19 days

1944-45 : 25.8" - 23.5F - 5.5" - 74 days

1932-33 : 25.9" - 30.5F - 9.0" - 28 days

2011-12 : 26.0" - 33.0F - 4.8" - 20 days

1901-02 : 26.2" - 24.2F - 6.2" - ???

1931-32 : 26.2" - 35.9F - 7.5" - 11 days

1947-48 : 26.6" - 24.3F - 4.4" - 89 days

1940-41 : 26.8" - 27.9F - 3.8" - 33 days

1979-80 : 26.9" - 26.2F - 5.5" - 19 days

1890-91 : 27.0" - 28.9F - 6.5" - ???

1931-32 had two storms drop 6"+, but it was the 2nd warmest winter on record as well as the 2nd barest with only 11 days of snowcover. 1932-33 also had two storms of 6"+, one came in mid-Nov the other late-Mar, with very little mid-winter snow, and the least snowy Jan (0.4") on record. Those would be nightmare scenarios. I could easily handle 1944-45 of 1947-48, as despite no 6" storm, they were locked in cold and thus a long period of snowcover was present for the winter. Hell, Detroits 4th least snowy winter on record, 1965-66, saw only 15.4" of snow but had 33 days of snowcover, almost all in a row from mid-Jan to mid-Feb. I would probably take that over what we saw this winter. I would NEVER wish for it, but just getting to the moral of the story, theres a lot of different ingredients that make up a winter, snowfall total being just one of them. And while Id certainly order brutal cold, heavy snow, and record deep snowpack, Ma Nature doesnt take requests. So we will have to see what the next winter brings, but I just have a feeling that I will probably enjoy it more than 2011-12, regardless of what the final snowfall total is.

[SpartyOn]

If the 1990s return it would be weenie suicide. The 90s were no fun..BUT they did feature the big couple of events. 1999 Blizzard hands down was the best snowstorm in my book. The shear amount of wind, rates and thundersnow left a impression on the memory bank.

[Roger Smith]

Here it comes.

[SpartyOn]

Here it comes.

Honestly I'd be happy with repeats of this past winter. Only exception would be if we could get a monster snowstorm thrown in the mix

[michsnowfreak]

If the 1990s return it would be weenie suicide. The 90s were no fun..BUT they did feature the big couple of events. 1999 Blizzard hands down was the best snowstorm in my book. The shear amount of wind, rates and thundersnow left a impression on the memory bank.

Agree the 1990s werent fun. 1990s had a lot of good Januarys and you could bank on a good March snowstorm at least every other year, but most horrible Decembers/Februarys were horrible (Im talking mainly the 2nd half of the 90s). The 1990s were an anomaly in that the 1970s, 1980s, and 2000s were all snowy...but snow-wise the 1930s, 1940s, and 1960s were all worse than the 1990s, and the 1950s were a near match. Again this goes back to snowcover IMO, the mild nature of many of the 1990s winters made snowcover lowest of any decade.

Avg 1"+ snowcover days per winter

1910s- 58

1920s- 51

1930s- 42

1940s- 49

1950s- 47

1960s- 56

1970s- 57

1980s- 47

1990s- 38

2000s- 53

Biggest example would be the 1960s winters, many of which were cold/dry, unlike the 1990s. The 1990s averaged over 5" more snow per season than the 1960s, but a full 18 days per year LESS of snowcover.

[BowMeHunter]

If the 1990s return it would be weenie suicide. The 90s were no fun..BUT they did feature the big couple of events. 1999 Blizzard hands down was the best snowstorm in my book. The shear amount of wind, rates and thundersnow left a impression on the memory bank.

Data courtesy of Chicago WX

Jan in the 90's was where it was at here.. 90's was the snowiest Jan decade by far and averaged 20.3" of snow.

Feb was a pretty hide the rope decade. averaged 9.4" of snow but that's inflated by the 38.7" in February 1994. Some real stink winters in there.

1992 - 5.3"

1999 - 4.4"

1991 - 2.4"

1995 - 2.1"

1996 - 0.6"

1998 - 0.5"

Dec was another pretty suicidal 90's decade and only averaged 7.7" with the snowiest month coming in at only 14.7"

March's of the1990's come in as the least snowiest decade on record with an avg of 5.7" 1" less than the runner up least snowiest march decade of the 1910's with 6.7"

90's Nov had a couple good snows yrs for MKE standards and those were 1993 with 8" and 1995 with 14.9" Nothing in the last 17 Novembers comes close to those 2 yrs.

1990's decade averaged 48.6" Tied for 6th snowiest decade in the past 13 not including the 2010's.

Thank gosh for the snowy Jan's in the 90's or it would have been rope and chair.

Jan/Feb of 1994 was nice and ranks as the 3rd snowiest combo on record.

1897-98 - 35.4/35.4 =70.8" Dec had 14.2"

1885-86 - 51.2/15.3 =66.5" Dec had 23.3"

1993-94 - 27.0/38.7 =65.7" Dec had 1.2"

[michsnowfreak]

Data courtesy of Chicago WX

Jan in the 90's was where it was at here.. 90's was the snowiest Jan decade by far and averaged 20.3" of snow.

Feb was a pretty hide the rope decade. averaged 9.4" of snow but that's inflated by the 38.7" in February 1994. Some real stink winters in there.

1992 - 5.3"

1999 - 4.4"

1991 - 2.4"

1995 - 2.1"

1996 - 0.6"

1998 - 0.5"

Dec was another pretty suicidal 90's decade and only averaged 7.7" with the snowiest month coming in at only 14.7"

March's of the1990's come in as the least snowiest decade on record with an avg of 5.7" 1" less than the runner up least snowiest march decade of the 1910's with 6.7"

90's Nov had a couple good snows yrs for MKE standards and those were 1993 with 8" and 1995 with 14.9" Nothing in the last 17 Novembers comes close to those 2 yrs.

1990's decade averaged 48.6" Tied for 6th snowiest decade in the past 13 not including the 2010's.

Thank gosh for the snowy Jan's in the 90's or it would have been rope and chair.

Jan/Feb of 1994 was nice and ranks as the 3rd snowiest combo on record.

1897-98 - 35.4/35.4 =70.8"

1885-86 - 51.2/15.3 =66.5"

1993-94 - 27.0/38.7 =65.7"

In Detroit, Januarys in the 1990s averaged 12.9", which is behind only the 1880s (13.1") and 2000s (13.3") for HIGHEST Jan snowfall. So yes, January overall was a good month. And March, unlike Chicago, wasnt bad at all. The 7.7" average is behind only the 1880s (8.0"), 1890s (8.8"), and 1910s (8.2") for HIGHEST Mar snowfall. (Feb was more middle of the pack, though it was a product of snowy Febs the first half of the decade and not-so-snowy ones the 2nd half).

However, Novembers averaged 1.5", behind only 2000s (1.1") for LOWEST Nov snowfall...and Decembers averaged 6.1", behind only the 1930s (5.8") and 1940s (5.9") for LOWEST Dec snowfall.

[Geos]

I was just thinking about what the winters were like before this snowy streak took hold. It seems that we've traded colder and drier winters for wetter and snowier. Before 2000, here it would get down to near -20°F once of twice a winter. Now it's hard pressed to make it between -5°F & -10°F.

January of 1999 after all that snow we had was the last time I've touched -20°F.