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Winter 2011-2012 Post-Mortem Thread


Powerball

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2011-2012 was the 6th warmest winter for Detroit, with an average temperature above freezing (33*F)!!!

This winter will also be known as the snowfall-padded winter from hell. The final snowfall total, whatever it is, will not tell the real story when it's re-evaluated years into the future. There were SO MANY GOD DARN 1-3" snowfall events that melted as soon as they fell. There was only one marginal advisory criteria event (which BTW, only averaged 3" across most of the area, the spot where the records are kept for Detroit just so happened to be in the 4"+ bullseye). Yet, there were absolutely no Winter Storms. The last time Detroit went through an entire winter without at least one 5"+ event (or an official widespread Winter Storm) was either 1999-2000 or 1997-1998.

http://www.crh.noaa....=80256&source=0

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2011-2012 was the 6th warmest winter for Detroit, with an average temperature above freezing (33*F)!!!

This winter will also be known as the snowfall-padded winter from hell. The final snowfall total, whatever it is, will not tell the real story when it's re-evaluated years into the future. There were SO MANY GOD DARN 1-3" snowfall events that melted as soon as they fell. There was only one marginal advisory criteria event (which BTW, only averaged 3" across most of the area, the spot where the records are kept for Detroit just so happened to be in the 4"+ bullseye). Yet, there were absolutely no Winter Storms. The last time Detroit went through an entire winter without at least one 5"+ event (or an official widespread Winter Storm) was either 1999-2000 or 1997-1998.

http://www.crh.noaa....=80256&source=0

Lol :facepalm:

Snow is snow.. It could snow .25 inches and melt right away every day for the season and you end up with the same total for the season as if it came in 3 "7 inch" pieces.. SMH..

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Lol :facepalm:

Snow is snow.. It could snow .25 inches and melt right away every day for the season and you end up with the same total for the season as if it came in 3 "7 inch" pieces.. SMH..

Yeah. It's not like this was the first winter ever to see snow come in small increments. Nothing was "padded" as there were many winters in the past that received their seasonal snow totals the same way. If we only counted "big" snowfalls, the averages would be much lower. I don't understand how the total was "padded". The problem was that it was a warm winter. The same seasonal total in a frigid winter would be perceived differently.

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2011-2012 was the 6th warmest winter for Detroit, with an average temperature above freezing (33*F)!!!

This winter will also be known as the snowfall-padded winter from hell. The final snowfall total, whatever it is, will not tell the real story when it's re-evaluated years into the future. There were SO MANY GOD DARN 1-3" snowfall events that melted as soon as they fell. There was only one marginal advisory criteria event (which BTW, only averaged 3" across most of the area, the spot where the records are kept for Detroit just so happened to be in the 4"+ bullseye). Yet, there were absolutely no Winter Storms. The last time Detroit went through an entire winter without at least one 5"+ event (or an official widespread Winter Storm) was either 1999-2000 or 1997-1998.

http://www.crh.noaa....=80256&source=0

Agree with that part above. I had at least 5-6 events that dropped 1-2" snows melted few hours later. It was padded. If March stays Mild all the way through and no more snow falls. This will be the worst winter I've experienced. Right now 97/98 is still #1 That winter was awful!

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Agree with that part above. I had at least 5-6 events that dropped 1-2" snows melted few hours later. It was padded. If March stays Mild all the way through and no more snow falls. This will be the worst winter I've experienced. Right now 97/98 is still #1 That winter was awful!

It would only be padded if no other winter on record ever had this situation. This type of winter/snow is part of the historical average.

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It would only be padded if no other winter on record ever had this situation. This type of winter/snow is part of the historical average.

Very true and im sure there were many winters of padded snowfalls similar to this winter.

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2011-2012 was the 6th warmest winter for Detroit, with an average temperature above freezing (33*F)!!!

This winter will also be known as the snowfall-padded winter from hell. The final snowfall total, whatever it is, will not tell the real story when it's re-evaluated years into the future. There were SO MANY GOD DARN 1-3" snowfall events that melted as soon as they fell. There was only one marginal advisory criteria event (which BTW, only averaged 3" across most of the area, the spot where the records are kept for Detroit just so happened to be in the 4"+ bullseye). Yet, there were absolutely no Winter Storms. The last time Detroit went through an entire winter without at least one 5"+ event (or an official widespread Winter Storm) was either 1999-2000 or 1997-1998.

http://www.crh.noaa....=80256&source=0

Maybe you should move to Milwaukee lol. I don't believe there has been a year in the past 20 that has not featured at least one snow event of 6" or more somewhere in Milwaukee County. Then again, that counts LE events as well. Detroit is not in a great spot for big storms comparatively (not that it's in a terrible location, either). I do feel for anyone who has not experienced a 4" event this season, but there is something to be said for 1-3" events salvaging the season.

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This winter was pretty terrible for a guy like me who loves big blockbuster storms. However, I can't be that upset as we've had great winters recently. I'm just hoping we can maintain this warm pattern into the spring and get some nice severe weather out of the deal. If for some reason the pattern suddenly flips and we end up with cool rain and cut off lows constantly then I might consider calling the suicide hotline.

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Agree with that part above. I had at least 5-6 events that dropped 1-2" snows melted few hours later. It was padded. If March stays Mild all the way through and no more snow falls. This will be the worst winter I've experienced. Right now 97/98 is still #1 That winter was awful!

Agreed.

You would never know it was an La Nina winter, it seemed like an El Nino winter, lol!

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2011-2012 was the 6th warmest winter for Detroit, with an average temperature above freezing (33*F)!!!

This winter will also be known as the snowfall-padded winter from hell. The final snowfall total, whatever it is, will not tell the real story when it's re-evaluated years into the future. There were SO MANY GOD DARN 1-3" snowfall events that melted as soon as they fell. There was only one marginal advisory criteria event (which BTW, only averaged 3" across most of the area, the spot where the records are kept for Detroit just so happened to be in the 4"+ bullseye). Yet, there were absolutely no Winter Storms. The last time Detroit went through an entire winter without at least one 5"+ event (or an official widespread Winter Storm) was either 1999-2000 or 1997-1998.

http://www.crh.noaa....=80256&source=0

Though southern Wayne county and up into the east side was the jackpot of 4-5" for the Feb 10/11 storm, Id say 3-5" was a very good average for the event. If you want to take the most plentiful totals they were in the 3.5-4" range, 3" is sort of short-changing it. But yes, nitpicking little things like aside, this winter blew for big storms. But you know what, Detroits longterm average is one 6"+ storm per winter, and they saw 11 such storms in the last 4 years. This was karma, we were definitely due for it...as much as I hate to admit it and didnt see it coming.

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Yeah. It's not like this was the first winter ever to see snow come in small increments. Nothing was "padded" as there were many winters in the past that received their seasonal snow totals the same way. If we only counted "big" snowfalls, the averages would be much lower. I don't understand how the total was "padded". The problem was that it was a warm winter. The same seasonal total in a frigid winter would be perceived differently.

Boy did you hit the nail on the head. If we saw the exact same snowfall in a cold winter, NO WAY would the winter be perceived the way it was. Thats why as much as the storm guys may not admit it, snowcover plays a bigger role than you think in winter here. Hell, Flint (5th warmest) and Saginaw (4th warmest) placed even higher than Detroit (6th) in their warmest winters rankings, yet, they too saw snowfall nowhere near futility (in fact they were even less below normal than Detroit). Not one site in SE MI will make their top 20 least snowy winters list. And you cant say its "padded" because, well, it HAS happened before. To all those who dont care about snowcover, there ya go. THIS is what happens when you dont get snowcover!!!!!!!! No one, and I mean NO ONE, is more disappointed about the lack of snowcover more than a snowcover hound like myself, but the more I think about it, the more ridiculous the whole "stat padder" thing sounds. For years I hear so many say snowcovers not all that, now that we get a real stinker of a winter, its lack makes what snow fell a stat padder :lol: Actually, IMO, its those places that may get buried by a 30" snowstorm, especially when said storm comes into question on measuring techniques with drifting (we see this in almost every epic snowstorm somewhere, from the clearing the snowboard every hour that the BWI observer did a few winters ago to the NYC snowstorm total that no one in NYC believed ousting the infamous blizzards of 1888/1947 for the top spot a few years back).......THAT is a stat padder to me, not snow falling in smaller, easier to measure increments. Oh well, everyone has their own opinion, and to me, snow is snow.

Though I have been measuring snow imby since 1995, Ive only done official daily depths since 2000. The list below should make it very clear why I hated this winter.

1"+ snowcover days IMBY

2011-12: 20

2010-11: 81

2009-10: 58

2008-09: 62

2007-08: 69

2006-07: 49

2005-06: 46

2004-05: 65

2003-04: 60

2002-03: 67

2001-02: 35

2000-01: 66

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Boy did you hit the nail on the head. If we saw the exact same snowfall in a cold winter, NO WAY would the winter be perceived the way it was. Thats why as much as the storm guys may not admit it, snowcover plays a bigger role than you think in winter here. Hell, Flint (5th warmest) and Saginaw (4th warmest) placed even higher than Detroit (6th) in their warmest winters rankings, yet, they too saw snowfall nowhere near futility (in fact they were even less below normal than Detroit). Not one site in SE MI will make their top 20 least snowy winters list. And you cant say its "padded" because, well, it HAS happened before. To all those who dont care about snowcover, there ya go. THIS is what happens when you dont get snowcover!!!!!!!! No one, and I mean NO ONE, is more disappointed about the lack of snowcover more than a snowcover hound like myself, but the more I think about it, the more ridiculous the whole "stat padder" thing sounds. For years I hear so many say snowcovers not all that, now that we get a real stinker of a winter, its lack makes what snow fell a stat padder :lol: Actually, IMO, its those places that may get buried by a 30" snowstorm, especially when said storm comes into question on measuring techniques with drifting (we see this in almost every epic snowstorm somewhere, from the clearing the snowboard every hour that the BWI observer did a few winters ago to the NYC snowstorm total that no one in NYC believed ousting the infamous blizzards of 1888/1947 for the top spot a few years back).......THAT is a stat padder to me, not snow falling in smaller, easier to measure increments. Oh well, everyone has their own opinion, and to me, snow is snow.

It's all in perspective.

I mean several non-eventful 1-2" or 2-3" snow events throughout an entire winter that's below average that still manages to total up to a no SO bad winter sorely on the final totals is still stat padding, either way. Actually, it's very true that stat padding has happened before, but the thing is this would probably be one of our few stat-padded winters in history that didn't make the top 20 snowless list.

I mean really, this terrible winter was truly in a league of its own by all measures. There wasn't any significant cold outbreaks, not a lot of lake effect snow, only two "true" clipper events, only two "true" widespread winter storms that both came back to back around the end of February/beginning of March, the lack of a deep freeze, the sheer lack of snow cover anywhere until now, etc. It wasn't even terribly warm either like some warm winters in the past (just consistently "above average"), and yet in many place snowflakes still managed to show up in the air fairly often, even if it didn't amount to much.

Then again, one 30" storm then very little snow through the remainder of the winter would be stat padding too. However, I can certainly live with that type of padding over the other, because of the simple fact that it's such an extreme event and it would have a much larger impact on my daily routine.

Likewise, I can also live with a winter where we reached the same snowfall total we did this season but with four 6"+ storms (probably would give it a C).

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Maybe you should move to Milwaukee lol. I don't believe there has been a year in the past 20 that has not featured at least one snow event of 6" or more somewhere in Milwaukee County. Then again, that counts LE events as well. Detroit is not in a great spot for big storms comparatively (not that it's in a terrible location, either). I do feel for anyone who has not experienced a 4" event this season, but there is something to be said for 1-3" events salvaging the season.

Thankfully I don't live in Detroit and don't deal with their lack of big storms (MBY averages a foot or so more snow than Detroit).

Please note this post is not directed to you. While the weather is boring I thought I would comment about the moving thing.

It is interesting these city debates on here and I know most are for fun. But the ole' you should move here or you should move thing makes me laugh when you are talking about moving from/to any of these Detroit or Milwaukee or Toronto or Chicago for snow. These cities average relatively about the same and moving between them is only a minor improvement/decrement for anyone snow wise. Each city has had there snow drought and great years (Detroit is due for a big one and it will happen someday).

When talking about moving I would move to bigger and better. To move from once city to another that averages a couple inches more or less would really not be that noticeable. Spending the time & money to move I would go toward west side of GRR area (like Allegan, Kzoo, Holland...). This would increase my yearly snow by at least a foot to several feet (not just a couple inches).

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Most def agree that this winter will be remembered for its overall warmth and it's weak little snow falls. Anything under 5 inches is a waste of time IMO. Very sad that it took a weak arctic front to give the SeMi it's highest total. The lack of a winter storm so far has been staggering but not surprising given the upper air patterns. I would say the region was in fact due for such a winter. Just better hope to God that 90s style winters don't make a long term return.

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The term stat padding is highly subjective. But to each their own. There is a significant difference between two warm winters in which a city gets five 5" storms and has ~20 days of snow cover versus a warm winter which a city gets one 3" storm and handfuls of less than 2" increments that add up to 25" with ~20 days of snow cover.

In addition, you really can't compare two city's yearly snowfall totals against each other without some bias. For example the ~25" that has fallen at DTW this year could never play out identically at IAD, PHL or LGA as their climo just doesn't support frequent sub 2" events all season long.

A huge part of midwest snow is unfortunately small events. Snow cover can at least help make small events more interesting. I've always said that it would be interesting to take the major midwest climate sites and exclude all events less than 4" and see what the seasonal snowfall totals are for all the years. I think you'd find some interesting trends.

But we have to be realistic. A lot of midwest locales average around 45", but you'd never see a winter that had all its snow come from seven 6" storms. Even though that total would be normalish seasonal total for a lot of folks, it would feel a lot above average ... even if that came in a warm winter where it melted off a few days later.

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It was dull and boring. Plus it made buckeye sad and depressed.......I can't support a winter that does that.

I'm never sad and depressed....ESPECIALLY over weather. It just seems that way here because that's all we talk about lol. Granted it sucked having NOTHING to track all winter.

I have to get the stats, but I don't think we exceeded a 2" single snowfall this winter. I'd love to know when the last time that occurred was. jbcmh???

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I'm never sad and depressed....ESPECIALLY over weather. It just seems that way here because that's all we talk about lol. Granted it sucked having NOTHING to track all winter.

I have to get the stats, but I don't think we exceeded a 2" single snowfall this winter. I'd love to know when the last time that occurred was. jbcmh???

Not according to the person who measures at CMH. LOL

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Wow, I haven't posted in two days. Sure sign spring is in the air.

This is the last I have to say about this winter, and I'll conclude on a bit of a positive note for those of us here in YYZ.

A comparison:

Range (top 10 least snowiest winters)

DTW: 13.4"-18.0" Av: 42.7"

BOS: 9.0"-18.1" Av: 43.7"

MKE: 11.3"-24.9" Av: 46.9" (per NWS MKE...although I remember this might be a couple of inches low)

YYZ: 20.6"-32.8" Av: ~49" (1981-2010 not out yet)

As a percentage of normal, here are the futility records for each location: DTW: 31.4%, BOS: 20.6%, MKE: 24.1%, YYZ: 42%.

My conclusion is, compared to other locations that average similar amounts of snowfall, our least snowiest winters are quite high. To have a #10 least snowiest winter of well over 30" when you average less than 50" is sort of ridiculous. And to have a least snoweist winter of more than 40% of normal is also pretty nuts. What I'm getting at is that a year like I just witnessed may have been long overdue. There's no compelling reason I can think of as to why our snowfall range should cluster so much closer to the mean than those other 3 locations.

The one thing that sort of flies in the face of my theory is the fact that it's not like we have a really small sample size over here. 3/4 of a century at Pearson alone, and since 1843 at University of Toronto. One would think anomalies like that would have been ironed out already. But whatever. Like I said, just trying to close up this disaster of a winter on a positive note, even if my theory has some holes in it.

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Most def agree that this winter will be remembered for its overall warmth and it's weak little snow falls. Anything under 5 inches is a waste of time IMO. Very sad that it took a weak arctic front to give the SeMi it's highest total. The lack of a winter storm so far has been staggering but not surprising given the upper air patterns. I would say the region was in fact due for such a winter. Just better hope to God that 90s style winters don't make a long term return.

LOL the Feb 10th arctic front was FAR from a weak arctic front. Actually ironically, in a winter where pacific air simply dominated, that was one hell of an arctic front, havent seen such a front (crazy temp plunge, blinding snowfall for several hours, calm to strong winds in seconds) like that in several years. Granted you were out of town and missed it (though you did get a tempered down version in MD). That said, it is sad that a frontal passage was responsible for winters best snowfall in an area prime for clippers, screamers, hookers, cutters, etc. And AMEN to the hope that a 1990s style pattern of winters does not return. We were very due for a winter like this. Hopefully its out of the way, and we get right back to good times next winter. Whats funny is we are coming of a period that Detroit had never seen before (so many continuous winters of heavy snowfall)...if we actually ARE in for a repeat of the latter half of the '90s (unlikely) it would be even harder to swallow coming after such a string of winters.

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The term stat padding is highly subjective. But to each their own. There is a significant difference between two warm winters in which a city gets five 5" storms and has ~20 days of snow cover versus a warm winter which a city gets one 3" storm and handfuls of less than 2" increments that add up to 25" with ~20 days of snow cover.

In addition, you really can't compare two city's yearly snowfall totals against each other without some bias. For example the ~25" that has fallen at DTW this year could never play out identically at IAD, PHL or LGA as their climo just doesn't support frequent sub 2" events all season long.

A huge part of midwest snow is unfortunately small events. Snow cover can at least help make small events more interesting. I've always said that it would be interesting to take the major midwest climate sites and exclude all events less than 4" and see what the seasonal snowfall totals are for all the years. I think you'd find some interesting trends.

But we have to be realistic. A lot of midwest locales average around 45", but you'd never see a winter that had all its snow come from seven 6" storms. Even though that total would be normalish seasonal total for a lot of folks, it would feel a lot above average ... even if that came in a warm winter where it melted off a few days later.

I think you were using a rhetorical example in your first sentence, but just to clear the air in case, DTW didnt see one 3" storm and the rest sub-2" snows. DTWs biggest snowfalls this winter were: 4.8" (Feb 10/11), 3.4" (Dec 5), 3.0" (Feb 23/24), 2.5" (Jan 20/21), then a slew of smaller events. Ive frequently seen the misconception that the Feb 10/11 storm was an average of 3" with a few higher lollipops when its really the opposite...very few areas saw as little as 3", and with my area being lucky enough to be the higher totals, 4.9" complete with 1 foot drifts in my yard, it certainly had all the appearances of a snowstorm. And looking back on previous winters, its not unheard of to have a winter without a significant snowstorm. 15 times since 1880 Detroits biggest snowstorm was UNDER 4", and many more were between 4-5", as this winters largest was (officially 4.8"). So as HORRENDOUS as this winter has been, all this acting like these things have never happened before, or this stat padding is in a league of its own, or whatever, is wrong.

Whats funny though, is you take, say, BWI or IAD or something, take their average snowfall excluding events less than 4", then over half your winters would be zero :lol: Of course, its ridiculous to say such things because snow is snow. Whether it melted right away or not, and this is coming from your snowcover king. Thats why I get such a kick out of hearing for all these years from many on here (not all) that snowcover isnt important, well, now that we get a horrible winter for snowcover, all of a sudden it makes the snow that has fallen stat padder snow lol. And we have our midwest climo and our small events to THANK for at least giving us many days where we got to see snow. Many places on the east coast have literally seen maybe 2 or 3 days this winter with measurable snow.

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Wow, I haven't posted in two days. Sure sign spring is in the air.

This is the last I have to say about this winter, and I'll conclude on a bit of a positive note for those of us here in YYZ.

A comparison:

Range (top 10 least snowiest winters)

DTW: 13.4"-18.0" Av: 42.7"

BOS: 9.0"-18.1" Av: 43.7"

MKE: 11.3"-24.9" Av: 46.9" (per NWS MKE...although I remember this might be a couple of inches low)

YYZ: 20.6"-32.8" Av: ~49" (1981-2010 not out yet)

As a percentage of normal, here are the futility records for each location: DTW: 31.4%, BOS: 20.6%, MKE: 24.1%, YYZ: 42%.

My conclusion is, compared to other locations that average similar amounts of snowfall, our least snowiest winters are quite high. To have a #10 least snowiest winter of well over 30" when you average less than 50" is sort of ridiculous. And to have a least snoweist winter of more than 40% of normal is also pretty nuts. What I'm getting at is that a year like I just witnessed may have been long overdue. There's no compelling reason I can think of as to why our snowfall range should cluster so much closer to the mean than those other 3 locations.

The one thing that sort of flies in the face of my theory is the fact that it's not like we have a really small sample size over here. 3/4 of a century at Pearson alone, and since 1843 at University of Toronto. One would think anomalies like that would have been ironed out already. But whatever. Like I said, just trying to close up this disaster of a winter on a positive note, even if my theory has some holes in it.

That 13.4" from 1936-37 seems to be a typo on DTX's climo page...that winter actually was 12.9", so DTWs range for top 10 snowless is 12.9-18.0". Chicagos is 9.8-20.0", Minneapolis 14.2-22.4", so you get the drift. Torontos futility is still better than many other places of fairly similar snowfall climo. The unfortunate thing is you are living it whereas pretty much every other city has their all-time low set way in the past. It can only get better :)

Least snowy winter set in....

Lansing: 1863-64

Milwaukee: 1884-85

Toledo: 1889-90

Grand Rapids: 1905-06

Indianapolis: 1918-19

Cleveland: 1918-19

Chicago: 1920-21

Minneapolis: 1930-31

St Louis: 1931-32

Detroit: 1936-37

Boston: 1936-37

Green Bay: 1960-61

Madison: 1967-68

La Crosse: 1967-68

Toronto: 2009-10

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I think you were using a rhetorical example in your first sentence, but just to clear the air in case, DTW didnt see one 3" storm and the rest sub-2" snows. DTWs biggest snowfalls this winter were: 4.8" (Feb 10/11), 3.4" (Dec 5), 3.0" (Feb 23/24), 2.5" (Jan 20/21), then a slew of smaller events. Ive frequently seen the misconception that the Feb 10/11 storm was an average of 3" with a few higher lollipops when its really the opposite...very few areas saw as little as 3", and with my area being lucky enough to be the higher totals, 4.9" complete with 1 foot drifts in my yard, it certainly had all the appearances of a snowstorm. And looking back on previous winters, its not unheard of to have a winter without a significant snowstorm. 15 times since 1880 Detroits biggest snowstorm was UNDER 4", and many more were between 4-5", as this winters largest was (officially 4.8"). So as HORRENDOUS as this winter has been, all this acting like these things have never happened before, or this stat padding is in a league of its own, or whatever, is wrong.

Whats funny though, is you take, say, BWI or IAD or something, take their average snowfall excluding events less than 4", then over half your winters would be zero :lol: Of course, its ridiculous to say such things because snow is snow. Whether it melted right away or not, and this is coming from your snowcover king. Thats why I get such a kick out of hearing for all these years from many on here (not all) that snowcover isnt important, well, now that we get a horrible winter for snowcover, all of a sudden it makes the snow that has fallen stat padder snow lol. And we have our midwest climo and our small events to THANK for at least giving us many days where we got to see snow. Many places on the east coast have literally seen maybe 2 or 3 days this winter with measurable snow.

Yeah, I was using a rhetorical example.

But the point I was trying to make about the stat padding snowfall is that a hypothetical very warm winter with low snowfall could have been much more interesting with five 5" storms that melt very quickly rather than a multitude of small events that melt very quickly keeping snow cover days constant in both examples.

I would much rather have a winter that gets six 8" snows for a seasonal total of 48" with 30 days of snow cover than a winter that sees 60" of snow from no event bigger than 4" and has 30 days of snow cover. Even increase that second example up to 40 days and it still wouldn't be better IMO.

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Yeah, I was using a rhetorical example.

But the point I was trying to make about the stat padding snowfall is that a hypothetical very warm winter with low snowfall could have been much more interesting with five 5" storms that melt very quickly rather than a multitude of small events that melt very quickly keeping snow cover days constant in both examples.

I would much rather have a winter that gets six 8" snows for a seasonal total of 48" with 30 days of snow cover than a winter that sees 60" of snow from no event bigger than 4" and has 30 days of snow cover. Even increase that second example up to 40 days and it still wouldn't be better IMO.

See 04-05 vs 06-07 here. 06-07 actually had a higher seasonal total but ala much like this winter there was not a single warning criteria event as far as snowfall goes imby. To me 06-07 was far worse. The two biggest events in 06-07 also happened out of season and thus early Oct and in April.

Anyways i agree 100%

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