Logan11 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Yeah I lived immediately across the river from southern Columbia County and we had lots of fun in the woods...lots of secret paths we built and little tree forts, etc. It must have hot and muggy, buggy, etc., in that valley, but that didn't bother you when you were so young. Yup. Thick forest all around me that the kids (and myself) venture into all of the time. When I was about 10 I built my first "club" house in the woods where I lived in Columbia County NY. Ticks were not even thought of then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 if everything breaks right...it won't even be close. some of those day 5/6 numbers will be 15F or so too low. i suppose tuesday could end up cooler in E MA with some sea breeze or onshore flow, so maybe that number is closer to reality or even high? Maybe the 6pm bounce at Logan? Looks like seabreeze could be very weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 we're all behind a backdoor front in march, yet most of us are still going to reach normal highs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Hell, just look at the very real condition known as SAD, seasonal affective disorder. Some people get down right bi-polar in the low sun/low daylight times of the year. Vitamin D deficiency affecting their health and in turn their mood possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Just looping through the NAM isobaric evolution ... despite the fun and games about knocking the NAM, however veracious those knocks really are, aside, there's no real reason to assume it will be any more in error than any other guidance type regarding the "overall" over the next 80 hours during this particular era. I think it will take much of the weekend to really rid ourselves of a shakey battle between the current garbage air mass, and the developing continental warmth from the OV. I could even see difused/amorphous sfc boundaries that separate air masses that average colder when scanning from Maine to NYC. The flow does not become very well conherently westerly/warm transportive until later Sunday, at which time temperatures become more uniformally positive with respect to climo, that afternoon, from SE NH to NYC. By the way, in a somewhat unrelated matter. This sort of pattern next week could end up being colder in DCA than BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I will go out on a limb early and grab some ballz by the hands.. Highest temps for the week next wek BOS- 88 BDL-89 ORH- 82 PVD- 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I will go out on a limb early and grab some ballz by the hands.. Highest temps for the week next wek BOS- 88 BDL-89 ORH- 82 PVD- 87 Biggest ballz of them all. I'd like to see some temps near +14C at 850 for those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Highest temps for the week next wek BOS- 81 BDL-83 ORH- 77 PVD- 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Just looping through the NAM isobaric evolution ... despite the fun and games about knocking the NAM, however veracious those knocks really are, aside, there's no real reason to assume it will be any more in error than any other guidance type regarding the "overall" over the next 80 hours during this particular era. I think it will take much of the weekend to really rid ourselves of a shakey battle between the current garbage air mass, and the developing continental warmth from the OV. I could even see difused/amorphous sfc boundaries that separate air masses that average colder when scanning from Maine to NYC. The flow does not become very well conherently westerly/warm transportive until later Sunday, at which time temperatures become more uniformally positive with respect to climo, that afternoon, from SE NH to NYC. By the way, in a somewhat unrelated matter. This sort of pattern next week could end up being colder in DCA than BOS. yeah i could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 we're all behind a backdoor front in march, yet most of us are still going to reach normal highs. lol Well in March they don't have the punch like they do in April and May. By that point, average temps have gone way up, but SSTs have not responded. Right now, we are only about 6-8 degrees warmer than coldest climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 we're all behind a backdoor front in march, yet most of us are still going to reach normal highs. lol i don't know if BOS or ORH will make it...aves there are 45 and 42F respectively. but point taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Biggest ballz of them all. I'd like to see some temps near +14C at 850 for those. We will see them increase with each set of model runs this weekend. Like always..dry ground, west flow, limited(but not none) vegetation, good mixing..= RECORD HEAT AND MORCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Well in March they don't have the punch like they do in April and May. By that point, average temps have gone way up, but SSTs have not responded. Right now, we are only about 6-8 degrees warmer than coldest climo. yeah you need to draw down the low DP air on NE flow this time of year to really maximize chill on NE winds. otherwise you just end up around 40-45F or so like today which isn't too far from normal. sometimes we get those dry march air masses advecting in on NE winds and you get added cooling coming across the GOM - that's when BOS, HYA, PVC etc are like 34F while BDL is more like 47F. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 We will see them increase with each set of model runs this weekend. Like always..dry ground, west flow, limited(but not none) vegetation, good mixing..= RECORD HEAT AND MORCH Well it's a very late September sun. You need closer to 570 thicknesses to get those temps. Sub 564 won't cut it for temps near 89F. I don't see that happening, but I could see someone for a day or so hit low 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 We will see them increase with each set of model runs this weekend. Like always..dry ground, west flow, limited(but not none) vegetation, good mixing..= RECORD HEAT AND MORCH 850s shouldn't respond to those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Pretty good support coming together for a -NAO tendency developing by the end of the month. Anyone notice the insane positive AAM tendencies in the last few days? Combination of strong frictional torque in the tropics fighting the intensified circumglobal subtropical ridging, and recent E Asia mountain torque associated with the MJO wave. This MJO wave should survive well into the western Pacific and toward the dateline ... maybe in a fashion that this same wave didn't quite accomplish back in the middle of February (the phase space projection was a bit of an artifact). Anyway, it looks like we will be breaking down La Nina characteristics of the pattern by early April. In addition, we will be looking for the final stratospheric warming around that time (notice the warming getting primed up around 1hPa). Throw in the global long wave number four pattern taking over, and we have the recipe for 1) a significant pattern disruption, and 2) horrible model agreement / verification. Interesting times ahead for sure. And the threat for significant wintry events is far from over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 No snow otg in montpelier...wtf, its march Told ya haha awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Pretty good support coming together for a -NAO tendency developing by the end of the month. Anyone notice the insane positive AAM tendencies in the last few days? Combination of strong frictional torque in the tropics fighting the intensified circumglobal subtropical ridging, and recent E Asia mountain torque associated with the MJO wave. This MJO wave should survive well into the western Pacific and toward the dateline ... maybe in a fashion that this same wave didn't quite accomplish back in the middle of February (the phase space projection was a bit of an artifact). Anyway, it looks like we will be breaking down La Nina characteristics of the pattern by early April. In addition, we will be looking for the final stratospheric warming around that time (notice the warming getting primed up around 1hPa). Throw in the global long wave number four pattern taking over, and we have the recipe for 1) a significant pattern disruption, and 2) horrible model agreement / verification. Interesting times ahead for sure. And the threat for significant wintry events is far from over Ssshhh...don't tell Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 I started a part II er on this idea, as the warmth of next week is obviously heavily advertized, and there extended things - anew - to consider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Ssshhh...don't tell Kevin. Pete knew this all along. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 39.7 here in the Monadnocks, enjoying the chill after the horrid warmth Monday and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Sun breaking out in the CT Valley ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Sun breaking out in the CT Valley ASOUT Yeah brightening up fast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Yeah brightening up fast here. Looks like it's completely cleared out in NW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Whats this on radar? It looks like some kind of line of showers (maybe a storm) dropping southeast toward me from northwest NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Pete knew this all along. lol Pete's been calling for a pattern change 10 days out since Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Where are the 80's???!!! It's 39 here and completely murky. I've put away all tyhe cold weather gear and now I'm screwed. Thanks Kevin, great forecast. These flip flops don't keep my feet very warm.Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Where are the 80's???!!! It's 39 here and completely murky. I've put away all tyhe cold weather gear and now I'm screwed. Thanks Kevin, great forecast. These flip flops don't keep my feet very warm.Damn. The re-torch starts tomorrow and gains steam...enjoy your one day of cold. some spring like showers tomorrow just to kick it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Pete's been calling for a pattern change 10 days out since Halloween. so have alot of others...only to bust as the mega torch has raged almost uninterrupted since early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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