CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 messenger told me it would matter much I tried saying it would mean jack sh*t. The ocean maybe at the surface is a bit warmer, but that is an overall cold body of water in the GOM. Throw clouds on top and disaster ensues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 I'm still not exactly sure what kind of tree it is but if I'd guess based on the leaf I'd say elm or cherry tree. Here's a picture of some of the small leaves. Like Joe said the tree does look a little sickly so that might be why it's shooting its leaves out so early. I did go for a walk around the Jamaica pond yesterday in the beautiful mid afternoon 70s and many of the small and medium sized bushes are sending out their first new leaves. Many trees also have their leaf buds growing and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a lot of trees with their leaves out if we get 70s-80s next week. Not saying a majority but like 25% of the trees with leaves out next week wouldn't shock me at all. But everyone laughed at me when my professor said leaf out by mid April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 NAM looks more like late march / early april ... not june. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 But everyone laughed at me when my professor said leaf out by mid April Leaf out usually means a majority of the trees are leafed out. You mentioned April 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Stratus deck in ENE eroding east a bit... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 But everyone laughed at me when my professor said leaf out by mid April well full leaf-out in E MA is like 6/1 so i don't think 4/15 is happening for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 And there is Messengers stellar St Paddys day It's 47 or so here...I'm already above normal for the day. In a normal year with the water several degrees colder than it is now I'd be 42 or 43, if not lower. It's not a big deal, even the backdoor coldfronts cant get us below climo this year. Relying on the NAM beyond 12 hours is idiotic. I'll go with the 0z Euro which has it as a pretty good day for most of SNE. It'll cool off later, but it can't be 60 every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Leaf out usually means a majority of the trees are leafed out. You mentioned April 1st. Yeah when I found out the true definition I then mentioned mid April, but no matter. Spring in springing as we speak and that's fine with me...whether its insanely early or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Stratus deck in ENE eroding east a bit... http://www.meteo.psu...A/anim8vis.html yeah the western edge will erode with the daytime heating / sun but my guess is after 4 or 5 we'll start to see that make some pretty steady progress W and SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 well full leaf-out in E MA is like 6/1 so i don't think 4/15 is happening for all of us. Yeah E MA and most of coastal RI and SE CT is usually 5/15-5/30, but Julian day 110 is average for HFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 42 and fog. angry and getting angrier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 42 and fog. angry and getting angrier. Give it a few days. It's mid March, back doors happen...but hey, 70s late weekend and into next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 A crystal clear day here with a somewhat brisk wind, but still going to run well above normal with highs in the mid 50's. The low got down to 33.8 with light frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 It's 47 or so here...I'm already above normal for the day. In a normal year with the water several degrees colder than it is now I'd be 42 or 43, if not lower. It's not a big deal, even the backdoor coldfronts cant get us below climo this year. Relying on the NAM beyond 12 hours is idiotic. I'll go with the 0z Euro which has it as a pretty good day for most of SNE. It'll cool off later, but it can't be 60 every day. some of this pattern should be more in it's wheelhouse (i.e. today). we'll see how it does. can only get better than it did this winter. i go back and forth on saturday's weather. i could see it sucking a bit along the coast and being nice inland. euro has a pretty stiff NNE flow...especially over SE MA/Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 i am sort of boarding that train of thought as well. just based on how fast stuff is responding and where we are headed in the next 10 days. i don't know about "leaves out" but trees with noticeable popping buds etc is possible. i don't expect the oaks to suddenly have leaves but some of the traditional early maples and birch could make some big progress. Sshh. don't tell Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Sshh. don't tell Scooter i don't think scooter disagrees too much with what i wrote. lol. i don't think we're going to have summertime forests by then...but things could look green here and there with the shrubs and younger maples and birch etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Sshh. don't tell Scooter He answered your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 42 and fog. angry and getting angrier. Mostly sunny and beautiful here now despite the easterly breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 i don't think scooter disagrees too much with what i wrote. lol. i don't think we're going to have summertime forests by then...but things could look green here and there with the shrubs and younger maples and birch etc. Sshhhh...don't tell Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 No action at all at home and I didn't see anything in Enfield, just a few miles north of Windsor. Are you talking about the ones on the Interstate? Simply amazing though! Nah..right outside the office bldg in the parking lot along the woods..there's a bunch of them in full bloom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Things will def green up by 4/1. Probably some of those weenie trees that normally leaf out early..like late April will have some leaves out by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 i don't think scooter disagrees too much with what i wrote. lol. i don't think we're going to have summertime forests by then...but things could look green here and there with the shrubs and younger maples and birch etc. He has been posting about nothing will leaf out early..Esp last week when i said we'd have leaf out by early April..now that he's seen it happening..he's slowly agreeing..Another great forecast by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 He has been posting about nothing will leaf out early..Esp last week when i said we'd have leaf out by early April..now that he's seen it happening..he's slowly agreeing..Another great forecast by me squared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Kevin's memory FTL as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 what a gradient in RI right now. middle 60s SW corner of the state and upper 40s/lower 50s up toward PVD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 All you leaf out freaks should read this. http://northernwoodlands.org/outside_story/article/how-do-trees-know-when-to-leaf-out-in-the-spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Nah..right outside the office bldg in the parking lot along the woods..there's a bunch of them in full bloom pics or it didn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 14, 2012 Author Share Posted March 14, 2012 Just some obs: Very sharp demarcation on high res visible imagery between apparent "backdoor" air mass to that in the interior. I'm up over 60F in Westborough...another big time positive anomaly day despite forecasts, with brilliant sun, occasionally interrupted briefly by scurting cumulus. These cu are tipped over toward the E, by the way, so that is an observational proof that this air mass ...whereever it may be puke-plagued is shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 As a graduate of morning wood academy I can tell all of you full leaf out will not occur before May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 As a graduate of morning wood academy I can tell all of you full leaf out will not occur before May. One of my favorite days of the year is when I am driving down the highway on a hill and can see all the trees have completely fully leaved out, usually first/second week of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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