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The unofficial official absurdly warm for March thread


Typhoon Tip

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Context for next week, the only prior recordings of 80s for KBOS in the month of March:

89F Mar31, 1945

86F Mar29, 1945

85F Mar28, 1989

83F Mar21, 1921

It does happen.

1945 was a particularly hot March, with multiple 70-80F days.

Is that March 28th day really 1998? March 28, 1989 was only 72° here and I don't think there was that big of a temperature difference. I know the last three days of March 1998 were hot and BDL even hit 90 one day.

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30-50 degree temp departures next week on the GFS in the N US is insane . False spring I believe the natives call it, fully believe now that bookend storm is in the cards with a crazy winter week, probably next full moon.

Wouldn't it be something that we do get a late bookend storm! Right after leaf out.

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Is that March 28th day really 1998? March 28, 1989 was only 72° here and I don't think there was that big of a temperature difference. I know the last three days of March 1998 were hot and BDL even hit 90 one day.

Yep you're right, the corrected list:

89F Mar31, 1945

86F Mar29, 1945

85F Mar28, 1998

83F Mar21, 1921

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ALB on board AMOUT..this is going to be wild next week AWT

THIS PATTERN REFLECTS THAT OF LATE SPRING OR EARLY

SUMMER WITH EXPECTED 500MB HEIGHT VALUES AT OR GREAT THAN 576DM ON

MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES

AND PERHAPS MORE RECORDS ATTAINED /RECORD HIGH NEXT MONDAY IS 75F/.

Days and days of 70's and 80's

You are just as relentless as Pete is about the cold/snow side of things.

Do either of you find middle ground ever or is it always hype one extreme or the other?

I wish you had snow on the ground now so you'd be touting backdoor fronts and not getting out of the mid 40s or something like that.

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30-50 degree temp departures next week on the GFS in the N US is insane . False spring I believe the natives call it, fully believe now that bookend storm is in the cards with a crazy winter week, probably next full moon.

Probably being too nitpicky, but 50F departure would be beyond the pale, even for just the daily max, but certainly for the mean. In my adventures with data from 100-yr plus stations, it's generally the case that the greatest departures are 35-40F, and that neg departures tend to be about 5F greater than positive. Yesterday's normal high for CON is 42; if everything breaks just right, they might approach +40 for a high temp next week (and +30 seems very possible, and perhaps a mean of +25), which is still extraordinary/absurd.

Examples form the station I know best, Farmington:

Greatest departure: -40.5F, 12/30/1917 (-11/-36)

Greatest positive: +38.4, 1/14/1932 (62/48)

Greatest March departures: +29.7, 3/20/1903 (79/40) and -28.9, 3/8/2007 (7/-17)

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Holy weeklies. Ridging into AK and Greenland. Warm party ends late this month.

AIT. The pay back is going to be painful and merciless. I can't wait for the late season bombs to crush the life out of Kevin's freshly Lescoed lawn. I still can't believe how Will took advantage of his foolishness. 2"? Why didn't he just bet him that the sun will come up tomorrow?
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This warm weather is absurd. I wonder if this massive ridging over North America somehow translates into a blocky pattern down the road in late March and April where we pay the price with weeks of chilly drizzle (or maybe even an elevation blue bomb). I have a hard time believing that we'll keep these ridiculous positive anomalies around forever. In fact, we probably won't as things have a way of averaging out. As we saw in late October, we can still get magic in a warm pattern overall.

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AIT. The pay back is going to be painful and merciless. I can't wait for the late season bombs to crush the life out of Kevin's freshly Lescoed lawn. I still can't believe how Will took advantage of his foolishness. 2"? Why didn't he just bet him that the sun will come up tomorrow?

I would have taken that bet in a heartbeat as well. But think about it....it's kind of a win either way for Kevin too. Even though he would owe Will some beer..Kevin would get his snow whixh to him..is more valuable than any beer.

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Serious question... does anyone know how legit the lightning detection on the Wunderground radar is?

I'm tracking this line of heavy showers and have been seeing the radar show lightning strikes in the southeast Adirondacks. The high peaks in Essex county can often block the radar echos but at the ski resort we are curious as to the chances that those are real strikes crossing I87 now.

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This warm weather is absurd. I wonder if this massive ridging over North America somehow translates into a blocky pattern down the road in late March and April where we pay the price with weeks of chilly drizzle (or maybe even an elevation blue bomb). I have a hard time believing that we'll keep these ridiculous positive anomalies around forever. In fact, we probably won't as things have a way of averaging out. As we saw in late October, we can still get magic in a warm pattern overall.

Agree, but we've been going strong since November...week after week, month after month and despite the models calling for a pattern change multiple times this year, none have actually verified when it comes to sensible weather...none.

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Echoes what I just said. The cold is coming back...

I think the overall +NAO pattern will continue for another several months anyways, but it doesn't mean we can't get into a period where some ridging tries to build towards Greenland. This time of year, you don't need the classic setup to deliver cold like you do in winter when wavelengths are longer. Any reason to drive troughing into New England will do so.

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Too bad we couldn't have reversed this whole evolution with the -epo/-nao now and not in the d15+ range.

It would certainly benefit lower elevations as climo gets exponentially more hostile for snowfall from now on. I suppose that if indeed this change does occur...maybe the MJO will cycle out of P8 and P1 by mid April and hopefully allow better wx later in the month, but that's really getting ahead of ourselves.

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