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The unofficial official absurdly warm for March thread


Typhoon Tip

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A proper mid-March forecast.

INCLUDING...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL

400 PM AKDT MON MAR 12 2012

.TONIGHT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 5 BELOW EXCEPT 15

BELOW TO 20 BELOW TOWARD THE PARK. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY WEST OF THE PARKS

HIGHWAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S EXCEPT 5 TO 15 ABOVE TOWARD THE PARK.

VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY WEST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY. SNOW

ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. LOWS 10 TO 15 ABOVE EXCEPT ZERO TO 10

BELOW TOWARD THE PARK. NORTHEAST WIND 15 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY WEST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY. HIGHS IN

THE LOWER 30S EXCEPT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S TOWARD THE PARK.

NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND

20 EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE TOWARD THE PARK. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15

MPH.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 25 TO 35.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 5

TO 15.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW

SHOWERS. HIGHS 25 TO 35. LOWS 5 TO 15.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS 25 TO 35.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE TEENS.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 25 TO 35.

&&

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To me the real start of leaf out is when the forsythia bushes open. As far as I can tell that is happening up to about Maryland right now. By the end of this week I would guess that would push north into Conn. Once forsythia open everything follows very rapidly. (assuming continuing warm temperatures)

I was in DC this weekend, and there were magnolia and cherries in full bloom. Grass was almost completely green down there, and the maples all had the red pollen sacs. Amazing.

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30-50 degree temp departures next week on the GFS in the N US is insane . False spring I believe the natives call it, fully believe now that bookend storm is in the cards with a crazy winter week, probably next full moon.

Maybe if you're willing to travel. Otherwise, you and I will not see more than anther inch of slop. Keep it. Oh we may get a 37 rainstorm. Again....keep it.

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My bad I guess. I interpreted as CT/MA b/c Scooter has been making fun of people all week for calling for Leaf out in a few weeks.

And he said next week not next month? So I don't where you're getting Mid April from. But whatever haha...this is a stupid argument.

He said green buds by April 1 which I interpreted as leaf out which was wrong but he wasn't joking lol

When I heard the true definition of leaf out I changed what he said because it's a different stage.

Oh well

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30-50 degree temp departures next week on the GFS in the N US is insane . False spring I believe the natives call it, fully believe now that bookend storm is in the cards with a crazy winter week, probably next full moon.

Interesting Don Sutherland mentions 1997 as an analog in the main forum, albeit it's a cold outlier:

I agree. However, at this point, about 60% of my preliminary analogs are showing warm anomalies for April, including in the Toronto-Ottawa areas, though the warm anomalies are less expansive than what had been seen during February and so far during March. A key assumption is that the La Niña gives way to neutral ENSO conditions. The coolest idea that is showing up at present is 1997, but for now 1997 is an outlier. I don't believe the current La Niña will give way to an El Niño conditions during late April as happened in 1997.

Would be exciting, but you can't go wrong betting on at most a bookend storm to match Halloween: a slushy tease for Boston.

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Maybe if you're willing to travel. Otherwise, you and I will not see more than anther inch of slop. Keep it. Oh we may get a 37 rainstorm. Again....keep it.

Yeah by the end of his warm up climo highs are creeping into the 50s and except maybe GC and ORH hills, it'll be really hard to get appreciable snow and even there it wouldn't last long with climo that high

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Interesting Don Sutherland mentions 1997 as an analog in the main forum, albeit it's a cold outlier:

Would be exciting, but you can't go wrong betting on at most a bookend storm to match Halloween: a slushy tease for Boston.

1997 was cold and snowy even prior to 3/31-4/1 here. Probably had close to 10 inches of snow before the big one..

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1997 was cold and snowy even prior to 3/31-4/1 here. Probably had close to 10 inches of snow before the big one..

Yeah... just looking at climo stats, March 97 max temps were generally below average until the last week.

And of course March 30 famously hit 63F before the onset of the blizzard the next night.

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I just want Concord to end up with above normal snowfall. That would give some stats-noob some fun in the future lol

As bad as this winter has been for most it really wasn't that bad at all imby. Last time I checked CON had about 8 inches less than here in Bow. They have been notoriously good at keeping really good snowfall totals, but this year they have seemed to be on the low side compared to what I've recorded and im only about 5 miles away by crow. Wouldn't think that few miles and 300ft of elevation I have on them would compute to around 10 inches less. Even the last storm we had they only recorded 8.9" while I had 11" on the ground after compacting all day while I was working.

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Weird question but...

If monthly data is referred to as monthly, two month running mean data is referred to as bimonthly data (ex. MEI), three month running mean data is referred to as trimonthly data (ex. ONI), what would four month running data be referred to as...quad monthly? (ex. DJFM NAO data)

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lol...the Euro has actual 2m temps progged in the 80s next Wed for NE MA back toward ASH. I wonder if we can screw the warmth up again somehow.

Yeah the high pressure was a little further south meaning better w-sw flow ahead of the front. It was more overhead in previous days.

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There is always something to ruin the warmth this time of year, but could be pretty darn mild for 2 days anyways.

The good news with this well above-average warmth and the duration of it is this will really help to warm SST's which are already above-normal and if we can continue this stretch through April (obviously we will have some cool days mixed in) and continue to warm SST's quicker than normal if we do have to deal with BDCF's at any point later on they won't be *as bad* as they could be...virtually temps in the mid 50's rather than 40's.

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ALB on board AMOUT..this is going to be wild next week AWT

THIS PATTERN REFLECTS THAT OF LATE SPRING OR EARLY

SUMMER WITH EXPECTED 500MB HEIGHT VALUES AT OR GREAT THAN 576DM ON

MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES

AND PERHAPS MORE RECORDS ATTAINED /RECORD HIGH NEXT MONDAY IS 75F/.

Days and days of 70's and 80's

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Just had a moderate burst of rain move through, first light is revealing a much greener landscape (lawns). 50 degrees outside at 714 am, people seemed to be focused on 2-3 days of extreme heat, the truth is its just rididculously warm day after day, now 13 straight months of above normal temps at BDR.

Have a great day.

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