dendrite Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 any snow cover left for you? Not really...just some patches in the shadier spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Not really...just some patches in the shadier spots. same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 BDL up to 74F! AMOUT!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 AMOUT!!!! Is ryan's boss still throwing around 80f for this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Brush fires beginning to rage near here. Mutual aid called to the town next door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Brush fires beginning to rage near here. Mutual aid called to the town next door Another CT disaster...no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 76.2 here I think that will do it for the day though The last little snowpile I have left should be gone tomorrow atleast I have some snow I put in the freezer so I can look at it in the summer As is usual ... pick your climo site and the MOS products busted 2-5F too cool, as they always do during early warm spells between Mar-May. Why don't they just take all those MOS products, ...after they've used clad physics with mind-numbingly advanced regressive statistical correction analysis, and the thousands of hours it took to evolve them all ... THEN, correct them by adding 4 or 5F. That 'bout sums it up - Yesterday day was sick. 64F high in Ayer with a light wind, and nearly full sun. Today… no words. It’s in the mid 70s here at the office, dudes and dudetts. This is nuts. This is the first official day of this fledgling warm season that it is cooler indoors at the office than it is outside. On March 12th! I was standing around in a “water cooler” type discussion with some of the girls from the 2nd floor at lunch the other day; one of them said something that stood out to me as being surprisingly cognizant of the climate impact. She said, “I love the warmth; I am enjoying it; I deeply appreciate it, but it is wrong, and it is scary..” This is how the lay-people are perceiving this, and you can't bun some random hottie ordering a cheeseburger - it's for real and people are freaked. Fact of the matter is though, some places around northern hemisphere just witnessed the most severe winter in history. What this really is, is a planet of extremes right now. We just were on the hot side of the pendulum I'm afraid. The reality? This is, and always has been, a singular and wholly a U.S. problem alone, not reflective of anywhere us but up the soreness of our fecal canals.. Those that like warmth and failed winters, simply got lucky – nothing more. No sign of impending doom. Doesn’t mean crap. Just means you suck, you lose, “You ain’t geddin no Goke” as it was said in Caddy Shack Eat schit and go back to sleep - sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 same here i forgot it just snowed here 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Brush fires beginning to rage near here. Mutual aid called to the town next door Is this normal for warm ups and dewpoints like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 i forgot it just snowed here 2 days ago. No way out of it, it feels like a summer day, never mind spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Scooter caving to Ct.Blizz? Freakish March warmth? 2012 the end of the world? I'm actually starting to get a little freaked out. waterski MRG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Another CT disaster...no surprise. I mentioned a few post ago, but I am actually surprised that Red Flaggers are posted with DP < 30 regionally and most place making 70-75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Is this normal for warm ups and dewpoints like this? On warm days in the early spring...yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Why don't they just take all those MOS products, ...after they've used clad physics with mind-numbingly advanced regressive statistical correction analysis, and the thousands of hours it took to evolve them all ... THEN, correct them by adding 4 or 5F. That 'bout sums it up - The problem is MOS busts too high when we have high thicknesses and E flow....so MOS can get confused easily....if we just added 4-5F to the algorithm every time it "thinks" a warm spell is coming, it would have so many days where it busted way too high. It was a disaster on 3/2 after the snow event...we had low clouds and light NE flow with a high of 28F when MOS was like 37. So it goes the other way too...bottom line March/April is just bad for MOS on the whole due to the diurnal dependency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I mentioned a few post ago, but I am actually surprised that Red Flaggers are posted with DP < 30 regionally and most place making 70-75 missing the wind criteria - at least i think it's factored in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 68 was the highest here. Got a lot of clouds now with hazy sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Is this normal for warm ups and dewpoints like this? At ths time of year, absolutely... What folks may not know is that a substantial amount of DP air is refitting by soil moisture, and flora (evapotranspiration). Right now, soil moisture is a commodity due to the lack of meaningful QPF over the course of winter, and the flora is non-existent. Amost every run in with exotic warm departures ...even as late as mid April, will tend to come in like sere, most years anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Another CT disaster...no surprise. Huge concern in the fire service with alll the dead left overs from Irene and Halloween with a dry spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 The problem is MOS busts too high when we have high thicknesses and E flow....so MOS can get confused easily....if we just added 4-5F to the algorithm every time it "thinks" a warm spell is coming, it would have so many days where it busted way too high. It was a disaster on 3/2 after the snow event...we had low clouds and light NE flow with a high of 28F when MOS was like 37. So it goes the other way too...bottom line March/April is just bad for MOS on the whole due to the diurnal dependency. MOS is always "learning" too as the statistical database continues to grow with time...so theoretically we should see continual improvement from year to year. It's too bad they stopped the NGM MOS since its data library went back so far. It had enough value IMO to warrant the op NGM to be kept running. I'm sure it doesn't take much for resources to run either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 The problem is MOS busts too high when we have high thicknesses and E flow....so MOS can get confused easily....if we just added 4-5F to the algorithm every time it "thinks" a warm spell is coming, it would have so many days where it busted way too high. It was a disaster on 3/2 after the snow event...we had low clouds and light NE flow with a high of 28F when MOS was like 37. So it goes the other way too...bottom line March/April is just bad for MOS on the whole due to the diurnal dependency. Seemin' like they could split it out in the software... if a,b,c then correctcold(atlantic_puke); else if x,y,z then correctwarm(butt_bang_snowlovers); end if; hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 My brother and his friends are going rope swinging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 missing the wind criteria - at least i think it's factored in. Yes, key element. Brush fires happen every spring, rite of passage, warnings come up when the wind exceeds 20 sustained with gusts to 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 MOS is always "learning" too as the statistical database continues to grow with time...so theoretically we should see continual improvement from year to year. It's too bad they stopped the NGM MOS since its data library went back so far. It had enough value IMO to warrant the op NGM to be kept running. I'm sure it doesn't take much for resources to run either. Yeah I didn't get that...the FWC guidance out performed the competition enough to keep it operational IMHO....it had its valuable uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Someone still runs he Eta eh... I was surprised nobody picked it up and kept running an NGM. MOS is always "learning" too as the statistical database continues to grow with time...so theoretically we should see continual improvement from year to year. It's too bad they stopped the NGM MOS since its data library went back so far. It had enough value IMO to warrant the op NGM to be kept running. I'm sure it doesn't take much for resources to run either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 We cooled some but not a ton, 64 here. Even the sea breezes fail this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 74 here Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 not bad. i know it drives dendrite nuts...but i have to admit i miss the quote-altering. we used to have some funny days on here/eastern. They've succeeded in making it a place only for weather./no banter/fun It's now sort of like a geriatric retirement facility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Today is a great example of good mixing, despite light flow. I said that yesterday for next week with the high overhead..and that we'd still MORCH and you and Ryan started jumping up and high fiving your fanny's against one another saying limited mixing = go lower temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 They've succeeded in making it a place only for weather./no banter/fun It's now sort of like a geriatric retirement facility We have banter threads you space cadet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Great day. I have never been this busy this early in the season, thank god I started cleanups in Feb. Good to see its going to cool down a little from here on out until next weekend, plant world will be happy. We need water, top 6 inches of soil is pretty darn dry, lots of carnage on the ground from previous storms in yards and in the forrest. Sun was a beast today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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