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The unofficial official absurdly warm for March thread


Typhoon Tip

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76.2 here I think that will do it for the day though The last little snowpile I have left should be gone tomorrow atleast I have some snow I put in the freezer so I can look at it in the summer :lmao::weenie:

As is usual ... pick your climo site and the MOS products busted 2-5F too cool, as they always do during early warm spells between Mar-May.

Why don't they just take all those MOS products, ...after they've used clad physics with mind-numbingly advanced regressive statistical correction analysis, and the thousands of hours it took to evolve them all ... THEN, correct them by adding 4 or 5F. That 'bout sums it up -

Yesterday day was sick. 64F high in Ayer with a light wind, and nearly full sun. Today… no words. It’s in the mid 70s here at the office, dudes and dudetts. This is nuts. This is the first official day of this fledgling warm season that it is cooler indoors at the office than it is outside. On March 12th!

I was standing around in a “water cooler” type discussion with some of the girls from the 2nd floor at lunch the other day; one of them said something that stood out to me as being surprisingly cognizant of the climate impact. She said, “I love the warmth; I am enjoying it; I deeply appreciate it, but it is wrong, and it is scary..” This is how the lay-people are perceiving this, and you can't bun some random hottie ordering a cheeseburger - it's for real and people are freaked.

Fact of the matter is though, some places around northern hemisphere just witnessed the most severe winter in history. What this really is, is a planet of extremes right now. We just were on the hot side of the pendulum I'm afraid. The reality? This is, and always has been, a singular and wholly a U.S. problem alone, not reflective of anywhere us but up the soreness of our fecal canals..

Those that like warmth and failed winters, simply got lucky – nothing more. No sign of impending doom. Doesn’t mean crap. Just means you suck, you lose, “You ain’t geddin no Goke” as it was said in Caddy Shack

Eat schit and go back to sleep - sorry.

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Why don't they just take all those MOS products, ...after they've used clad physics with mind-numbingly advanced regressive statistical correction analysis, and the thousands of hours it took to evolve them all ... THEN, correct them by adding 4 or 5F. That 'bout sums it up -

The problem is MOS busts too high when we have high thicknesses and E flow....so MOS can get confused easily....if we just added 4-5F to the algorithm every time it "thinks" a warm spell is coming, it would have so many days where it busted way too high. It was a disaster on 3/2 after the snow event...we had low clouds and light NE flow with a high of 28F when MOS was like 37. So it goes the other way too...bottom line March/April is just bad for MOS on the whole due to the diurnal dependency.

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Is this normal for warm ups and dewpoints like this?

At ths time of year, absolutely...

What folks may not know is that a substantial amount of DP air is refitting by soil moisture, and flora (evapotranspiration).

Right now, soil moisture is a commodity due to the lack of meaningful QPF over the course of winter, and the flora is non-existent.

Amost every run in with exotic warm departures ...even as late as mid April, will tend to come in like sere, most years anyway

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The problem is MOS busts too high when we have high thicknesses and E flow....so MOS can get confused easily....if we just added 4-5F to the algorithm every time it "thinks" a warm spell is coming, it would have so many days where it busted way too high. It was a disaster on 3/2 after the snow event...we had low clouds and light NE flow with a high of 28F when MOS was like 37. So it goes the other way too...bottom line March/April is just bad for MOS on the whole due to the diurnal dependency.

MOS is always "learning" too as the statistical database continues to grow with time...so theoretically we should see continual improvement from year to year. It's too bad they stopped the NGM MOS since its data library went back so far. It had enough value IMO to warrant the op NGM to be kept running. I'm sure it doesn't take much for resources to run either.
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The problem is MOS busts too high when we have high thicknesses and E flow....so MOS can get confused easily....if we just added 4-5F to the algorithm every time it "thinks" a warm spell is coming, it would have so many days where it busted way too high. It was a disaster on 3/2 after the snow event...we had low clouds and light NE flow with a high of 28F when MOS was like 37. So it goes the other way too...bottom line March/April is just bad for MOS on the whole due to the diurnal dependency.

Seemin' like they could split it out in the software...

if a,b,c

then correctcold(atlantic_puke);

else if x,y,z

then correctwarm(butt_bang_snowlovers);

end if;

hahaha

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MOS is always "learning" too as the statistical database continues to grow with time...so theoretically we should see continual improvement from year to year. It's too bad they stopped the NGM MOS since its data library went back so far. It had enough value IMO to warrant the op NGM to be kept running. I'm sure it doesn't take much for resources to run either.

Yeah I didn't get that...the FWC guidance out performed the competition enough to keep it operational IMHO....it had its valuable uses.

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Someone still runs he Eta eh... I was surprised nobody picked it up and kept running an NGM.

MOS is always "learning" too as the statistical database continues to grow with time...so theoretically we should see continual improvement from year to year. It's too bad they stopped the NGM MOS since its data library went back so far. It had enough value IMO to warrant the op NGM to be kept running. I'm sure it doesn't take much for resources to run either.

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Great day.

I have never been this busy this early in the season, thank god I started cleanups in Feb. Good to see its going to cool down a little from here on out until next weekend, plant world will be happy. We need water, top 6 inches of soil is pretty darn dry, lots of carnage on the ground from previous storms in yards and in the forrest. Sun was a beast today.

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