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The unofficial official absurdly warm for March thread


Typhoon Tip

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It really is refreshing to hear Kevin speak of warm (or cold for that matter) WHEN it is actually warm or cold hahaha.

Scott, I saw you poke Kevin's fanny with that little weenie, but ... heh, actually, that blended 500mb height evolution off the operational Euro and GFS, would probably in reality support a +15C in the 850mb. These types of thermal ridgings usually are muted a tick or two compared to reality at these kind of time ranges...

Don't worry, I am not killing the idea of one last hurrah of chill in the dream ranges... .not just yet anyway.

:facepalm:

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Some hope of you, Scott, per NCEP, for St Paddywagons Day:

FARTHER EAST... THE MAIN FCST ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH OF ENERGY FCST

TO FILTER THRU THE ERN NOAM MEAN RIDGE AND SETTLE OVER THE ATLC.

THE PAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STRONG WITH THIS ENERGY

BUT THE 4-CYCLE ECMWF LAGGED AVERAGE IS COMPARABLE TO THE LESS

EXTREME ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. OTHER SOLNS OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AN

EVEN WEAKER DEPICTION OF THIS ENERGY. OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS CAN

SOMETIMES BE TOO DEEP AND/OR SLOW WITH SUCH TROFS AND BY D+8

TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE STRONG CORE OF POSITIVE HGT

ANOMALIES OVER SERN CANADA SUGGEST WRN ATLC TROFFING SHOULD SET UP

A LITTLE EWD OF THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW PREFER TO GIVE GREATEST

WEIGHTING TO THE INTERMEDIATE ECMWF MEAN WHILE AWAITING BETTER

GUIDANCE AGREEMENT.

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Some hope of you, Scott, per NCEP, for St Paddywagons Day:

FARTHER EAST... THE MAIN FCST ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH OF ENERGY FCST

TO FILTER THRU THE ERN NOAM MEAN RIDGE AND SETTLE OVER THE ATLC.

THE PAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STRONG WITH THIS ENERGY

BUT THE 4-CYCLE ECMWF LAGGED AVERAGE IS COMPARABLE TO THE LESS

EXTREME ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. OTHER SOLNS OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AN

EVEN WEAKER DEPICTION OF THIS ENERGY. OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS CAN

SOMETIMES BE TOO DEEP AND/OR SLOW WITH SUCH TROFS AND BY D+8

TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE STRONG CORE OF POSITIVE HGT

ANOMALIES OVER SERN CANADA SUGGEST WRN ATLC TROFFING SHOULD SET UP

A LITTLE EWD OF THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW PREFER TO GIVE GREATEST

WEIGHTING TO THE INTERMEDIATE ECMWF MEAN WHILE AWAITING BETTER

GUIDANCE AGREEMENT.

Even if the winds are NE...I just want any possible wave to the south, out of there by noon. Sunshine and NE winds aren't bad.

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76.2 here I think that will do it for the day though The last little snowpile I have left should be gone tomorrow atleast I have some snow I put in the freezer so I can look at it in the summer :lmao::weenie:

I did that with hail from 8/7/08 but then someone used it for ice in their drink b/c the ice tray was empty :thumbsdown:

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Huh? Yeah he was... Mid April in NJ to CT? That's not that far off from average anyway, especially inland toward NYC...

Average leaf out onset from NYC to HFD is Julian Day 110 aka April 20

http://arnoldia.arbo...ticles/1976.pdf

From distant memory, leaf-out generally got under way during the last week of April at my long-ago NNJ home, at 690' elev. Years like 1967 (3" snow 4/27, sleety mix May 6) were a bit later.

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