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How warm will it get in and around NYC on Thursday?


IsentropicLift

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With more clouds and a slight chance of showers tomorrow I'm thinking today may end up the nicer and warmer day, despite the winds

Not if you go by the 12z NAM

Anyway, its just a frontal passage, and there is not much moisture. Most of the activity looks to stay to our south. I doubt that clouds are in issue in this setup. The sun is high and feels very warm. The end of this horrible winter has finaly arrived.

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what a boring poll. Snore.

Sorry...would you prefer that I posted about how much snow we have gotten or how much we are going to get??? j/k

Seriously, thought this would get more attention. People should be excited for the warmth.

I actually didn't too bad on the seasonable snow totals. Somewhere around 15-16" which includes 7" in October and about 5" for the overrunning event.

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Sometimes temps overperform vs. MOS this time of year because of the lack of leafs on trees (evapo-transpiration helps cool air). I remember a 5 or 6 day stretch in State College in either 08 or 09 that this happened in March. We overperformed in most areas today and it wouldn't surprise me if it happened tomorrow. There probably won't be widespread 70s but one or two stations (EWR being most likely obviously) could touch 70.

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Sometimes temps overperform vs. MOS this time of year because of the lack of leafs on trees (evapo-transpiration helps cool air). I remember a 5 or 6 day stretch in State College in either 08 or 09 that this happened in March. We overperformed in most areas today and it wouldn't surprise me if it happened tomorrow. There probably won't be widespread 70s but one or two stations (EWR being most likely obviously) could touch 70.

Agree, most of the time MOS is underdone up through May when we've got low vegetation. Most places will be in the mid/upper 60s but I fully expect scattered 70-71F highs.

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EWR 70

NYC 68

LGA 68

JFK 62

I wonder how much impact this will have on tomorrow's temperature forecast... the NAM underestimated the extent of today's warmth, which isn't the first time I've noticed the NAM doing this with warm spells.

12z NAM at hour 6:

post-1753-0-14544900-1331162219.png

18z NAM initialized temperatures:

post-1753-0-35849300-1331162222.png

As soon as the NAM corrected today's temperatures, its 18z run jumped a couple of degrees warmer for tomorrow.

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Wow,low 40's in extreme northern Maine! That is extremely impressive they actually have a solid snow pack all the way up there. I was supposed to go to Windham tomorrow but decided to hold off until the weekend. Im not a big fan of slush ridding, Snow boarding and slush doesn't go as well as it does with skiing.

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