Interesting article about warnings in the CLT area during the last outbreak

[BullCityWx]

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/03/06/3072739/service-defends-its-weather-warnings.html#disqus_thread

The National Weather Service said Monday it has the right equipment, staffing and communications to alert Charlotte residents to dangerous storms, despite the lack of warnings posted before the tornado that hit the area early Saturday.

Mickey Brown, executive director of the Weather Service's Eastern U.S. zone, defended the agency after three Charlotte TV meteorologists voiced concerns about its equipment and the way its offices communicate.

Meanwhile, state and local officials on Monday toured damaged neighborhoods, trying to determine whether they qualify for state or federal assistance. .

The tornado struck about 2:30 a.m. Saturday in eastern Mecklenburg and southern Cabarrus counties without any watches or warnings in effect for the area. The Weather Service office in Raleigh issued a tornado warning at 2:40 a.m. for Stanly County, saying radar showed a tornado southwest of Concord - near the Mecklenburg-Cabarrus line.

Weather service criticism

WBTV meteorologist Eric Thomas said Sunday that something seemed "seriously amiss" when the Weather Service's Raleigh office didn't alert the agency's Greer, S.C., office about the storm. He voiced concern over the communications between the two offices.

The Charlotte area is divided among three National Weather Service offices. Most of the region is served by the Greer station. But Raleigh oversees Stanly, Anson, Richmond and Montgomery counties, and the Columbia office handles Lancaster and Chesterfield counties in South Carolina.

Meanwhile, WCNC chief meteorologist Brad Panovich wrote Monday in his blog that his station's advanced radar unit clearly showed the tornado developing over Charlotte. He said the Weather Service's closest Doppler radar units - in Greer and Columbia - apparently did not pick up the storm.

The agency gets some of its Charlotte weather information from a different type of radar unit - called Terminal Doppler - that was installed a few years ago near Mountain Island Lake. Panovich said it is not as good at spotting circulating winds as a Doppler unit.

Jeff Crum, meteorologist at News 14 in Charlotte, also has been vocal in recent years, advocating for the Charlotte area to get the more advanced radar unit.

Doppler is an advanced radar system, capable of providing meteorologists with specific information on the formation of storms.

Terminal Doppler radar's specialty is detecting wind shear at lower levels of the atmosphere, and the federal government has installed those units in recent years near major airports, like Charlotte Douglas International.

Jeff Masters, a noted meteorologist based in Ann Arbor, Mich., said Terminal Doppler radar sometimes cannot "see" as well through heavy precipitation, compared to Doppler units.

The range of the Weather Service's radar units also has been called into question. The agency's Doppler radar in Greer is 71 miles from Charlotte, and the Columbia radar is 80 miles away. Most meteorologists consider Doppler's range to be 65 to 100 miles.

Panovich said Charlotte is too far from the nearest Doppler units.

"Charlotte is the biggest city in the United States without a Doppler radar located within the acceptable range of the radar," he said.

Brown disagrees.

"That unit gives us excellent low-level coverage," he said, referring to the Terminal Doppler radar near Mountain Island Lake. "The people in Greer have the ability to spot developing tornadoes, using that Terminal system."

Brown said staff members on duty early Saturday morning did see a radar signature of a tornado in Mecklenburg County - but only briefly.

"It was there for only one scan of the radar," Brown said.

News 14's Crum said he had lobbied former U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole to help find the federal funding to put an advanced radar unit close to Charlotte. When Dole lost her bid for re-election in 2008, the matter was dropped, Crum said.

With two nuclear power plants close to Charlotte, Crum said, the area needs a better radar system.

Offices share data

The Weather Service operated a five-member office in Charlotte until 1990. When it was closed, federal officials said technology had improved enough so meteorologists in Greer, Columbia and Raleigh could watch over the Charlotte area.

Brown said Weather Service offices communicate with one another during severe weather events. In fact, he said, staff members can view radar returns from other offices.

"The people in the Greer office can access the radar data from Raleigh or Columbia," Brown said. "All of that is available at their work stations."

He said it is likely that by the time Raleigh staff saw the tornado "signature" - a hook at the end of the storm circulation - it was too late to warn the area that got hit. That is why a warning was issued for the next county in line, Stanly.

Brown and Harry Gerapetritis, of the Weather Service's Greer office, each said the type of thunderstorm that produced Saturday's tornado was difficult to track. They said so-called "supercell" thunderstorms, like those responsible for the killer tornadoes Friday in Indiana and Kentucky, have tops that soar 10 miles into the atmosphere.

The tops on the line of storms that raced through the Charlotte area at 60 mph early Saturday were less than half that tall, making their dynamics more difficult to follow on radar.

Brown said the time of the storm makes an argument for residents to get NOAA weather radios. The radios are silent until a warning is issued. He said people should put the radios in rooms where they sleep.

"I have one at my house, and believe me, when it goes off, you hear it," he said.

Warning residents

It's unclear what Mecklenburg County does to warn sleeping residents of potential tornadoes approaching. Wayne Broome, Charlotte-Mecklenburg Emergency Management director, didn't return several calls from the Observer on Monday.

Many counties have subscribed to services like CodeRed that allow emergency management offices to quickly send out mass calls.

Union County installed CodeRed last November, Larry Brinker, Union's emergency communications director, said.

The system requires residents to call or go to the department's website to register their phone numbers and address. Between 40 and 80 residents are registering each day, Brinker said.

He's unsure how effective it would be warning people of a sudden, unpredicted tornado.

"But the system gives us an opportunity to make contact with a controlled group of people in a relatively quick time," he said. "It's not immediate. But it's a whole lot easier than trying to make hundreds of calls."

Staff writer David Perlmutt contributed.

Lyttle: 704-358-5006

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/03/06/3072739/service-defends-its-weather-warnings.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/03/06/3072739/service-defends-its-weather-warnings.html#storylink=cpy

[Mencken_Fan]

Not sure what to say but I guess it comes down to cost vs. benefit.

Are major tornadoes enough a concern in that area to justify the expense of top-of-line tornado detection? Perhaps the current system is "good enough." With budgets a consideration, choices must be made.

[burrel2]

They just can’t admit that they missed one huh? I think it makes them look stupid to keep throwing excuses at us. I’d much rather them say, “we missed it, it’s our fault, and we’ll try not to let it happen next time."

Saying, “the tornado signature was only there for one radar scan” is not a valid explanation to me. Who cares if it was only there for one scan??? A warning clearly should have been issued and it wasn’t... the bottom line is they screwed the pooch on that storm, but instead of just admitting it and moving on, they keep trying to make up excuses.

[NC_hailstorm]

All I know is an EF2 went through Meck/Cabarrus with no warning at all and a 7 year old ended up getting thrown 350 feet on I-485.A weather radio would'nt have helped that family.

BTW I'm over 100 miles from Greer and Raleigh so I always keep my eyes open up here for anything at anytime.

[kayman]

The head meteorologist at the Greer NWS office sounds like an idiot. There are nearly 2 million people in the Charlotte metro area, and they are only covered by the fringe of the Greenville-Spartanburg metro doppler and Columbia doppler? WOW, WOW, WOW! I think the NWS office needs to be moved from Greer to Charlotte and with a local dual-pol doppler....

[Solak]

Might have to watch this tonight... via Facebook:

NBC17 Weather Wes Hohenstein

Weather Service in Charlotte missed a tornado warning last weekend. Is that something that could ever happen in central North Carolina? We ask the Raleigh Weather Service that question tonight at 11pm on NBC17

[jburns]

They are focusing on the short lived tornado. What I find more disturbing is the area wasn't even under a severe thunderstorm warning. It was obvious on radar well before it dropped the tornado that it was a severe storm.

[norcarolinian]

They are focusing on the short lived tornado. What I find more disturbing is the area wasn't even under a severe thunderstorm warning. It was obvious on radar well before it dropped the tornado that it was a severe storm.

i agree....and i think the Triad metro is in the same boat...being split between Raleigh, Greer, and Blacksburg.....but what can ya do

[SouthernNJ]

I was watching this storm closely as my brother is in college in NC.

The storm formed a small line segment near 2 AM and rapidly

intensified as it reached Charlotte. I attempted looking at all 3

WSR-88d's (GSP, Columbia, Raleigh) to look for a circulation,

but none of them had an angle on the storm. One website did

have access to the terminal doppler at Charlotte, but it only

updated every 6 minutes. The velocity data did show some

rotation to the northeast of Charlotte, but it was difficult to tell

how consistent it was. Then, Raleigh issued a TOR for the first

county in their CWA moments later. The fact that they issued it

as early as they did suggests they must have seen an obvious

signature on the TDWR, because their WSR-88d did not have

anything even close on it at the time.

GSP issued an SVR for Spartanburg county at 210 AM, with an

SVS at 227 AM, 7 minutes before the tornado touched down.

They issued a final SVS at 240 AM, just as the tornado lifted.

From this, it appears they were focused on the Spartanburg

storm and did not pay as close attention to the Charlotte storm.

The TDWR updates every 1 minute, so there is no way that it only

had a tornado signature for one scan. Even brief, weak tornadoes

show up on TDWR's, so my guess is that they switched from viewing

the Charlotte storm for trends too quickly and did not realize the

strength it had.

That said, the earliest I could see a TOR being issued for this storm

was maybe 1 or 2 minutes before it hit. Likely would not have done

many residents much good. However, it still would have given GSP

a better look to the event to show that they were on top of it. I'm

not going to say this was a bad miss, but I will say that it is always

important for a warning forecaster to check all available resources

when determining the threat level of an impending storm to the public.

[MADDOGG]

hmm seems to me the local mets should take the load when in a svr outbreak..NWS isnt that creditable for 1. I would rather take advice from a local met anyday..rather listen to the NWS. Just my opinion!

i guess i should add before the hanging from my comment. the nws is staffed by locals i guess, but ive seen here in many svr threats the office has to take cover and the offices next door take up the job. i really dont even know if a local channel met can issue a warning. but i think the more eyes on the storms the better seeing as how much area is to be watched.

[FoothillsNC]

I covered the wedge-induced threat on my site, FB and twitter a lot that night. The whole day was spent sending out continuous updates, but I admit my reach is very limited, but on the social media side I see that my alerts were resent via some followers. Anytime theres an imminent threat of severe I try to reach as many as possible. Anyway, you can view my calls and alerts in a write up I did at the site. Nobody's perfect but usually in wedging , with incoming severe, at the southern extent of the boundary there is a heightened risk of spinups, and the radar clearly showed thats what happened. I alerted as many as I could from the Upstate to right around Meck . county that I've seen strong wedges enhance the threat, and unfortunately it verified.

There is a FREE section on my site but viewing is limited. Just register at the main sign up page, and you'll be emailed the username/pw and be able to click where it says "Public". Thanks! Hopefully it's not going to be as severe anytime soon.

[SN_Lover]

I really think Charlotte needs at least a small office. Words can't describe the catastrophe that could result if a tornado strikes McGuire Nuclear Station without warning. There would be no time for the station to react before the tornado, and Charlotte is downwind of the station.

[nrgjeff]

Yeah Robert, looks like the left over wind shift from the wedge behaved like an outflow boundary retreating out in the Plains. Classic enhanced low-level shear was associated with that boundary. Plus much research links rate of destabilization to severe as much or more than absolute instability; rate of destabilization was definitely there as the north side warmed up.

Regarding radar coverage, CLT is a pretty serious omission in the Doppler network. It is hard to do a cost-benefit analysis on a low probability high-impact event; therefore, even the fiscal hawk would want to also be "conservative" on risk and install the radar.

As for missing the warning between CWAs, I saw the reverse happen out in Kansas several years ago. I was working the storm desk at a private firm and tornado warned our clients, well ahead of a tornado that damaged their infrastructure. A previously tornado warned storm was declared "outflow dominant" by spotters; therefore, tornado warnings were discontinued. Unfortunately it was at night, when spotters might not have seen a new meso developing, and radar was screaming obvious rotation. The hook was classic and the shear was tight and strong. The supercell cycled and produced another tornado, verifying my client alert. The NWS are human too, so I'm not throwing anybody under the bus. However we need common sense communication and radar equipment covering population centers. God bless the people in CLT.

[FoothillsNC]

Yeah Robert, looks like the left over wind shift from the wedge behaved like an outflow boundary retreating out in the Plains. Classic enhanced low-level shear was associated with that boundary. Plus much research links rate of destabilization to severe as much or more than absolute instability; rate of destabilization was definitely there as the north side warmed up.

Regarding radar coverage, CLT is a pretty serious omission in the Doppler network. It is hard to do a cost-benefit analysis on a low probability high-impact event; therefore, even the fiscal hawk would want to also be "conservative" on risk and install the radar.

That's an interesting way to look it, as sure enough that was indeed the case. In Spring this type of severe has happened a lot lately, when there was damming present. If there is ongoing severe approaching the wedge, the "old guard" would hedge toward weakening around here, and that's sort of what happened in the market and alerting system here (although SPC hedged more in favor later on). It always makes me nervous to be in a wedge with incoming severe, no matter what time of night. Lately the pattern or trend has been for the boundary to not erode , but enhance (or like you said, as it leaves, instability changes generate the threat more). I think a lot of the market forecasters here though were still relying heavily on the wedge protecting, but at the bottom edge, I'm always nervous.

Nearly the same thing happened in January, of all months. Strong wedge, temps in 30's and an upper low with good dynamics caused enough low level shear just east of the mountains to spawn a tornado (or a couple) in the foothills. The same system if I recall had severe west of the mountains in Alabama and Tn earlier.