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NNE Spring 2012


ctsnowstorm628

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lol on the dirty lew, 54 yrs, Leaf out usually takes place the first to mid april most years up here in southern maine, I am guessing you are in between where i am and northern maine as it is mid to late may up there

Foothills phenology, on avg, for 1st green-up, not full leaf out:

--willow/quaking aspen late April. (Bigtooth aspen about 3 weeks later than its cousin. Look for the silvery patches on hillsides about May 15.)

--maples/birches/beech 1st week May. Red maple flowers come out at/before the aspen leaves.

--Oaks 2nd week May

--Ashes 3rd week May. By this time the oaks are about 2/3 leafed out and the earlier trees are nearly full.

Quite pretty out my way this morning, with 2.2" of fluff (0.10" LE) falling 5P-midnight and sticking to all the twigs. The 10-11" in NE Aroostook was impressive (CAR now 1.1" above avg thru 3/14) but 9" in Machias at sea level was more surprising. My season total has now rocketed past 09-10 into 12th place among 14 winters, and 10th is but 2" away. Yippee!

Two more signs of spring this morning. Saw about 15 Canada geese at the Belgrade Stream bridge near Messalonskee Lake. Also had a wasp apparently crawl into my pants leg as I was doing business in the throne room. Pulled up the pants, walked into the living room and got zapped behind my knee. I swatted, totally ineffective against hardbodied wasps, and she nailed me good - apparently much more thoroughly envenomed - a couple inches from the 1st shot. Pulled off the pants (had to kick off shoes first) and looked at the turned inside-out pant leg, then glanced down and saw the critter on my leg (had not known what it was until then.) Brushed it to the floor, and when I reached for a better weapon and turned back, it had flown to safety. Got a pretty solid welt from the 2nd torpedo, though it's now going away, 2 hr after the hit.

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I knew you would chime in being in forestry, I can relate on the wasp bite, Had my arm out the window of the truck a few years back and had one fly up my sleeve and get me a couple of times before i could get the vehicle pulled over on the back of the shoulder, My wife thought i was having a medical emergency..

Foothills phenology, on avg, for 1st green-up, not full leaf out:

--willow/quaking aspen late April. (Bigtooth aspen about 3 weeks later than its cousin. Look for the silvery patches on hillsides about May 15.)

--maples/birches/beech 1st week May. Red maple flowers come out at/before the aspen leaves.

--Oaks 2nd week May

--Ashes 3rd week May. By this time the oaks are about 2/3 leafed out and the earlier trees are nearly full.

Quite pretty out my way this morning, with 2.2" of fluff (0.10" LE) falling 5P-midnight and sticking to all the twigs. The 10-11" in NE Aroostook was impressive (CAR now 1.1" above avg thru 3/14) but 9" in Machias at sea level was more surprising. My season total has now rocketed past 09-10 into 12th place among 14 winters, and 10th is but 2" away. Yippee!

Two more signs of spring this morning. Saw about 15 Canada geese at the Belgrade Stream bridge near Messalonskee Lake. Also had a wasp apparently crawl into my pants leg as I was doing business in the throne room. Pulled up the pants, walked into the living room and got zapped behind my knee. I swatted, totally ineffective against hardbodied wasps, and she nailed me good - apparently much more thoroughly envenomed - a couple inches from the 1st shot. Pulled off the pants (had to kick off shoes first) and looked at the turned inside-out pant leg, then glanced down and saw the critter on my leg (had not known what it was until then.) Brushed it to the floor, and when I reached for a better weapon and turned back, it had flown to safety. Got a pretty solid welt from the 2nd torpedo, though it's now going away, 2 hr after the hit.

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Just to show what kind of winter this has been, Saw where the Coast Guard a couple of days ago went on there annual ice breaking exercise on the Kennebec River to prevent spring time flooding, But the river was already ice free

It had been clear for a week or more, and they send 3 boats! Probably they need to have a certain amount of cruise/drill time to meet CG directives, and it's a nice trip.

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It had been clear for a week or more, and they send 3 boats! Probably they need to have a certain amount of cruise/drill time to meet CG directives, and it's a nice trip.

It was funny to see them just cruising up the river on there exercise and one of the commanders commented on it was one of there easiest drill they have had

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Had some undercast at times today... cloud level was right up there near 3,500ft so at the top of the lift it was in and out of the clouds as the cloud depth oscillated up and down by a 100-200ft.

But looking at the visible SAT this morning you can see the Spine of the Greens out of the clouds.

IMG_3322_edited-1.jpg

IMG_3318_edited-1.jpg

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Lets play the snow depth game...

1,400-1,600ft... this stuff isn't going to make it through the weekend/next week warmth though.

IMG_3329_edited-1.jpg

IMG_3339_edited-1.jpg

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And this is like 2,800ft or so...little above mid-mountain where the depth is in the vicinity of 3.5-4 feet.

IMG_3337_edited-1.jpg

Reminds me of a song by Nickelback, "Say Goodbye"

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This is insane... this is the forecast for 800ft in town... mid 70s all next week! Up at the mountain its 60-70F for highs all next week... wow.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming west between 4 and 7 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 43.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 41.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 75.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 42.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 74.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 72.

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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AND INTO

NEXT WEEK...

THE RECORD IN BTV ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH IS 62 SET BACK IN 1945...AND

OUR FCST TEMP AT BTV FOR SUNDAY IS 74F. MEANWHILE...THE RECORD HIGH

AT MPV IS ONLY 58 SET BACK IN 1966...AND WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH

TEMP OF 72F ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH.

Here are BTV records for next week... we will destroy all of these.

What is amazing to me is that the interior VT mountain/hill towns have records similar to MPV most likely which would be upper 50s to low 60s... yet the forecast is for mid 70s all next week. Although, whatever happened in 1903 seems not to far off from this with 1V4 going over 70F for 3 days in a row.

BTV:
MARCH 18TH: 62 (1945)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1894)
MARCH 20TH: 70 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 68 (1946)
MPV:
MARCH 18TH: 58 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 57 (1968
MARCH 20TH: 62 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 54 (2003)
1V4:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1927)
MARCH 19TH: 71 (1903)
MARCH 20TH: 75 (1903)
MARCH 21ST: 71 (1903)
MSS:
MARCH 18TH: 66 (1966)
MARCH 19TH: 60 (1986)
MARCH 20TH: 66 (1976)
MARCH 21ST: 62 (1976)

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Anybody want to wager this early warm stretch blows out te warm weather for the rest of spring? I don't know why but my gut tells me perfect May weather in March leads to a cold, rainy and really miserable late april and May.

I mean 74 and sunny next week in BTV is going to be pretty awesome. Not going to lie about that. The scene on Church St. will be fun to take in as well.

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Anybody want to wager this early warm stretch blows out te warm weather for the rest of spring? I don't know why but my gut tells me perfect May weather in March leads to a cold, rainy and really miserable late april and May.

I mean 74 and sunny next week in BTV is going to be pretty awesome. Not going to lie about that. The scene on Church St. will be fun to take in as well.

You skiing this weekend?

I just love how we are going to be blowing records out of the water by like 10+ degrees on some of these days. That's unheard of.

We've been pretty much staying dry so far this morning, just a sprinkle here or there. Sky should open up at some point.

Jay Peak has been in this moisture train for like 3-4 hours now... they must be getting some very heavy rain at times this morning, like near flash flooding type of stuff based on some of the echos I've seen roll through there since 4:45am.

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State of the snow here yesterday morning. There's less now, of course:

6987285191_568e1955f9_z.jpg

And yesterday afternoon while heading home, I was able to catch a pretty cool weather event. It had cleared off in the CT valley yesterday afternoon but there was a cool east wind in place, preceeding last night's rain. The moist easterly flow stacked up for a period along the east slopes of the highlands of west-central New Hampshire (Moose Mountain, Smarts Mountain, Mount Cube, Piermont Mountain, etc.) before rolling over and engulfing us west of the river. I was able to pull off the road and snap a picture of Mount Cube (2900' and some change) with the moisture all backed up on the east side of the mountain--not something I see around here very often:

6841162816_642b434d19_z.jpg

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When I got home yesterday evening I checked at the back yard stake and found that the snowpack around it was down to the last crusty bits, and they were under ½” deep. I didn’t get a chance to check on it in the dark this morning, but that dense snow likely hung around with the colder temperatures overnight, so a “Trace” value went into my CoCoRaHS report for this morning. With the amount that was left, I suspect it will disappear today though, so March 14 will probably be the last entry for the continuous snowpack at the stake location this season.

Well that last bit of winter snowpack at the stake location was pretty stubborn, and with the relative cool stretch we’ve had, it actually hung around for an extra day, finally melting out yesterday. With that, March 15th will go down as the last day with continuous snow at the back yard stake this season, and that’s actually one day later than when that point was reached in ‘09-‘10. However, this is still the shortest season for continuous snowpack at the stake (Dec 23rd – March 15th) since I started keeping records here in ‘06-‘07. I’ve added the updated Waterbury snowpack plot below. December 8th was very close to being the start of the snowpack season, but as one can see in the plot, there were a couple of breaks in the December 16th through December 23rd stretch where the snow depth went back to zero. Even December 8th would have been 1 to 2 weeks behind the average start date though, highlighting just how late the valley snowpack got going this season.

1112waterburysnowpack.jpg

With the snowpack in mind, there are a couple of additional values that I track that are notable this season.

Maximum snowpack depth: The greatest depth observed this season was 18”, which is about half the average peak. The ‘09-‘10 season was similar in that regard, topping out at 21”, but this season will set a new low value barring a sufficiently large storm or storms at some point later this season.

Snow depth-days: This value is very low, currently at 687 vs. an average up around 2,000. There still may be more to add this season based on whatever else falls, but it wouldn’t likely result in a huge change to the current number. One really needs to have that snowpack sitting there consistently to produce a substantial addition. Again ‘09-‘10 is the next closest season in this respect, coming in with a total of 1,040 day-inches.

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Dear NNE,

I would really love to have you guys joins us at the Conference! :) Is there anyone up here who thinks they might be able to go? I'd love to be able to add your name to this prestigious list :)

who I know for sure is going from SNE:

Paul

Eleanor

Amy

Kevin

Scott=Messenger (we have a lot of scotts)

Jay

Diane

Quincy

Will

MEkster

Ginxy

Ray

Early Registration ends in 2 Days!

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Drip drip drip...here's the snowmelt heading through town. Luckily today was only in the 35-40F range most of the day so what snow is left didn't really melt. Up at the mountain it was nice to save a day with very minimal melting.

IMG_3388_edited-1.jpg

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And its funny how you'll have 75% of yards mostly snow free... then come to a cluster of houses with like 8" still on the ground all around the property. Its amazing how much snow melt varies with all the nooks and crannies in the terrain and changes in aspects, etc. Some areas just like to melt and others hold onto it forever, all within like a square mile and not elevation dependent.

IMG_3389_edited-1.jpg

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