powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Another sweet evening to be out on the mountain enjoying the spring snow. What a great couple of days its been... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 0z Euro wants to dump 3-4" of rain and the GFS is close to a whiff right, Would take a blend of the 2, That would end the fire threat for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 I had known about this other weather station on Mansfield but didn't know it was in the Mesowest network until someone recently brought this to my attention... but this is a good link to have as this weather station is at 2,200ft on Mansfield. http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base.cgi?stn=MMSV1 I've also personally seen a weather station in the woods at an elevation of like 2,600-2,800ft just outside of Stowe's boundaries but I have no idea if its still functioning or how to find that data. That would be a clutch elevation to have. Yeah I found that station the other night. Sweet link. Really think higher elevations have a chance at some accum snow Monday night. Maybe not too much, but flakes may fly. Probably a blend of the GFS and euro would suffice for now. Probably 0.5" with upwards of 1" possible total qpf by midweek with room for possibly more of everything breaks right. The pattern really doesn't support a progressive low with the n and s jet streams close to each other... But it will take a lot of perfect interactions to deliver the 4" jackpots guidance has shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 0z Euro wants to dump 3-4" of rain and the GFS is close to a whiff right, Would take a blend of the 2, That would end the fire threat for a while Actually, it looks like the gfs whiffs twice, to our left on Saturday and to the right on Monday. Another "cake yesterday and cake tomorrow, but no cake today?" Their total qpf thru next Tuesday has gone from 4.5" 2 days ago, to 2.5" yesterday, to 0.4" this morning. And the Sandy River flow is now just 38% of the previous record low cfs for April 19, probably below the median for August 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I think this continues to trend westward and the best chances for snow are in the eastern Great Lakes region or western NY... but the 18z GFS still showing some white love for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 I think this continues to trend westward and the best chances for snow are in the eastern Great Lakes region or western NY... but the 18z GFS still showing some white love for NNE. That second shot is from 12z to 18z...it'll be above freezing for most if 850 is that marginal, especially after sunrise. Maybe you can snag some up above 2.5-3k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 That second shot is from 12z to 18z...it'll be above freezing for most if 850 is that marginal, especially after sunrise. Maybe you can snag some up above 2.5-3k? Oh yeah I'm not looking for accums down in the village, that's a pipe dream...it'd be nice to have some fresh snow to ski on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Well the latest NAM is rather interesting. Dumping snow in Binghampton NY with flurries possible down into Suburban DC highlands. while it dumps rain in NH and potentially heavy snow on the rockpile. Then it cuts off monday and we get back into the upslope snow on the spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 ...it'd be nice to have some fresh snow to ski on. I checked the 12Z/6Z model runs of the ECMWF and GFS this morning, and thicknesses, 850 mb temperatures, and QPF sure seem to suggest the potential for some snow late tonight into tomorrow morning, at least in the mountains. It’s coming up on the ECMWF WunderMap® snow algorithm and the Mansfield point forecast as well, but I haven’t really seen it discussed much here or in the BTV NWS discussion. I’d think it would be good for at least a couple inches up on Mt. Mansfield to freshen things up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 43 here in shelbourne (south of btv) and headed back to Rutland to my gf's place. It's 71 there. Damn. Sharp cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 What a dry April so far.... BTV had a post on FB regarding it and they posted this map of precipitation so far in April. They said the mean was 0.85" across the FA. Here in Stowe we are 1.75-2" and all of that was from that 3-day upslope event...with the high terrain seeing over 3". That event makes this area stand out like a sore thumb. The Stowe CoCoRAHS observer is showing 1.8" in the lower village and I'm pretty sure that's the 1.8" listed in far southern Lamoille County. I had just about 2" even from that event in my not-that-scientific garden rain gauge and that map looks pretty darn accurate as I'm located right where the "1" is in the 1.8 in southern Lamoille County... right on the 2" line. It is amazing though how dry its been... without that event we'd have had nothing this month. And to think that we had standing water all over the place and now the soil is pretty much dust. A far cry from April 11th when there was standing water all over the place and it just poured and poured for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Dust bowl here in Central NH. I have never seen the ground so dry for mid to late April. This rain is coming just in time as everything is opening the past few days with these 70 plus temps. Guess I need to bring in some wood and startup the stove soon after the cold front goes through! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 What a dry April so far.... BTV had a post on FB regarding it and they posted this map of precipitation so far in April. They said the mean was 0.85" across the FA.Here in Stowe we are 1.75-2" and all of that was from that 3-day upslope event...with the high terrain seeing over 3". That event makes this area stand out like a sore thumb. The Stowe CoCoRAHS observer is showing 1.8" in the lower village and I'm pretty sure that's the 1.8" listed in far southern Lamoille County. I had just about 2" even from that event in my not-that-scientific garden rain gauge and that map looks pretty darn accurate as I'm located right where the "1" is in the 1.8 in southern Lamoille County... right on the 2" line. It is amazing though how dry its been... without that event we'd have had nothing this month. And to think that we had standing water all over the place and now the soil is pretty much dust. A far cry from April 11th when there was standing water all over the place and it just poured and poured for a couple days. Thanks for putting up the map PF; it looks very accurate to me as well because I just summed my monthly liquid and got 1.82”, so that 1.82” that the BTV NWS has there on the spine south of Mt. Mansfield must be derived from my data. I hadn’t checked the gauge this week since it didn’t seem like we got any liquid, but I found a rogue 0.03” in there this morning. I looked back at the CoCoRaHS data from the week, and saw that various stations on the western slopes had similar accumulations on Tuesday morning, so I went back and corrected my data accordingly. That correction brings the month to 1.85”, and as of ~7:00 P.M. we’re just about at 2.00” due to the rain from this event so far. The relative dryness around here has been appreciated after 71”+ for the 2011 water year, but this new round of moisture will probably be good for some new grass and trees we’ve planted. I’ve been checking in on the Mansfield ridge line temperature to see how it drops tonight. But it’s still around 40 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I’ve been checking in on the Mansfield ridge line temperature to see how it drops tonight. But it’s still around 40 F. Me too...I saw that my thermometer was showing 42F and thought, wow, it might be snowing up there with the usual 10-15F difference at summit level. I'm surprised its only been fluctuating between 39-40F because its actually colder in the 1,500-2,500ft elevation band. This station on the west side at 2,200ft on Mansfield is showing 37/36F right now: http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base.cgi?stn=MMSV1 Meanwhile the Stowe base area at 1,600ft is showing 39/37F. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KVTSTOWE3 Bolton Valley at 2,200ft is also showing 37/36F just like the same elevation on Mansfield. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KVTBOLTO2 Must be some colder air cutting under the H85 level. Currently 42/39 here in Stowe Village. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 81.2 yesterday and 77.6 today. April is the new June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 81.2 yesterday and 77.6 today. April is the new June. 75 and 74 here, and enough to begin opening the maple leaves, plu the chives are tall enough to harvest a bit. Had 0.07" in the bucket at 7 AM, bringing the April total up to 0.12". Cocorahs obs from North New Portland, about 25 miles to my north, was 0.69". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 0.82" here yesterday of much needed rainfall. Looking forward to another inch or two. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I thought I saw some flurries this morning but wasn't sure...light pellets maybe. Looks like some accumulations were reported in northern VT: as of 1005 am EDT Sunday...minor updated to mention flurries/sprinkles across the mountains through this morning and tweak temperatures down several degrees. The combination of leftover moisture and upslope follow has resulted in some light snow flurries/sprinkles. Several reports this morning of a dusting to 1 inch of snow accumulation overnight from Swanton to Ellenburg Depot. Our opl reported 0.1" of snow this morning near Fairfax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Euro has a nice upslope snowstorm Friday for the Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 suprise snow tonite at 1500' and up in western vermont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 33 in killington at 2k.....hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 suprise snow tonite at 1500' and up in western vermont? Wood pickles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Wood pickles? chris i love snow whenever the season. and elevation events are cool. i think some in vt/nh/maine will be pleasently suprised by early mon am....even thou warmer air is certainly moving in by morning....there could be a nice dump esp 1500' and up. (there is decent population living 1500'-2000' in NNE....and i hope some are snapping pics latest intellicast radar shows wintry weather along the nice drive from jackson,nh to mt. washington hotel and that randolph,nh area up thru saddleback and sugar loaf maine also the spine of the greens at 2k looks GTG for now regarding snow (from CVT up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 chris i love snow whenever the season. and elevation events are cool. i think some in vt/nh/maine will be pleasently suprised by early mon am....even thou warmer air is certainly moving in by morning....there could be a nice dump esp 1500' and up. (there is decent population living 1500'-2000' in NNE....and i hope some are snapping pics latest intellicast radar shows wintry weather along the nice drive from jackson,nh to mt. washington hotel and that randolph,nh area up thru saddleback and sugar loaf maine also the spine of the greens at 2k looks GTG for now regarding snow (from CVT up) Im just giving you a hard time man, I think elevation events are awesome too...especially when they happen in ct and I get 22" during Octobomb and the valley floor beneath me gets 14 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 1.7" in my 'hood with heavy rain continuing. A bit over 2.0" in Portland. My office building has a big puddle on the floor - not unusual for this old building in heavy rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 No snow here at 1.2k but I really don't care about that sort of thing at this point. I'm just oh-so glad to see this very needed soaking rain. 1.44" in the bucket since yesterday morning, 2.26" combined and still raining. The brook below the house is roaring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 +RN, Looking at the gauge it looks like we are close to 2", Pretty raw and windy to boot 37F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 2.03" and counting. The lawned greened up overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 CF early yesterday brought less than 0.1", but steady light/mod RA since 5 PM has dropped 1.2". Was only 34 at 7 AM and 1-2F cooler at 5 AM, but no signs of slush/IP. Temple cocorahs, two towns west, recorded 0.1". Saw up to 7" reported for western NY. Back end of steady stuff is in sight; MBY probably winds up at near 2", just about the perfect spot for drought-busting w/o flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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