WXheights Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 another interesting day of wx in NNE 10-4 beuatifully cold convective always gorgeous. Graple showers (small hailers) looks south from Worcester http://weatheringhei...6/jpg/image.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 12, 2012 Author Share Posted April 12, 2012 What a day yesterday and possibly again today. Nice cold pocket of air at 850 combined with daytime heating in April leads to some nice instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Just got some pea sized hail here at CON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Just got some pea sized hail here at CON Still going on , a little larger than pea size here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Had an interesting evening-last, overnight and morning: had some showers yesterday afternoon and with a cold pool right overhead, there was burst of hail along with the showers, it cleared off last night and quickly dropped into the upper 20s, freezing the wet ground and hail together. Frost formed early this morning and on top of that, we had an odd downpour of sleet pellets early this morning. All of this added up to a gray ground this morning. It was hard to capture as in the photo is looks mostly like plain old frost but in actuality, it was a curious mixture of various forms of frozen water, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Steep, snow covered mountain slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Have graupel mixed with hail now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Saw (on radar) some nice 30-35 dbz pockets pass over MBY this morn, but if it's like the past few days, I'll find T or maybe 0.01" in the bucket. Numerous such echoes Mon-Wed, some 40+ dbz, have produced a total of 0.05". Since Feb 1 I've had 35% normal precip, and it doesn't look like it's changing any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 The clouds broke. Still a few shower though today. Looking Gilpin and all the J's (missing little) Snow line right at the base of the mountain. Graupel. Thanks J Spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 Definitely think the Champlain Valley, Lakes Region of NH, and interior SW Maine may approach the low to mid 80s on Monday. Upper 70s look likely for the remainder of the north country (outside of Vim Toot land). This 3-4 day stretch of 60F+ should green everything up nicely in the lower elevations especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Definitely think the Champlain Valley, Lakes Region of NH, and interior SW Maine may approach the low to mid 80s on Monday. Upper 70s look likely for the remainder of the north country (outside of Vim Toot land). This 3-4 day stretch of 60F+ should green everything up nicely in the lower elevations especially. Yeah...looking pretty good for mid 80s across the lower elevations. The Euro maps on WU have 18C 850s over E MA Monday afternoon...insane for mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 endless summer continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Evidently my crocuses operate on a fixed schedule and not soil temperature, because despite the ground being thawed for a little over a month now, they just today finally bloomed. Poplar trees now have quarter sized leaves on them. Star magnolia is half in bloom, about 7 days early. Rustic Rubra magnolia buds cracked open today, nearly four weeks early. This kind allegedly has no frost tolerance so I'm alarmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Walking in the woodlot today, I found most places crackling dry underfoot, but the normal wet holes were as deep and boot-suckinmg as usual for mud season. Al 3 upstream Kennebec tribs, Carrabasset, Sandy, Sebasticook, are at record low flows for April 14, with 75-91 yr of data. Not expecting much improvement in the near term. Our forsythia is in "full" bloom, if 8-10 blossoms 8" off the ground count for that. Evidently, our one brief excursion under -20 last Jan killed all the blossom buds, and with only a few inches of white insulation, not many buds survived. Other than that, spring growth has been little/none since the March heat. Sun-Tues will jump start it, but we should then be one week ahead of normal, not the 4 weeks that seemed possible with the 80s streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 Up to 70F here. Picture perfect day with few clouds thus far, though they'll increase throughout the afternoon. Tomorrow looks like a cloudy morning followed by a dandy of an afternoon. Highs definitely into the middle 80s if we get a lot of sun. If not, near 80 should do it....oh darn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Great day out there. Everything looks about to open. Right now nothing blooming but forsythia on the hill. I know its a different story even 50 miles south in the Manchester/Concord area where everything must be greening up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Awesome day on the mountain... snow is melting fast again. Fresh snow does not like nighttimes in the 50s and days in the 70s. It'll be interesting after tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 Awesome day on the mountain... snow is melting fast again. Fresh snow does not like nighttimes in the 50s and days in the 70s. It'll be interesting after tomorrow afternoon. Yeah, looks like 850mb gets to 16C tomorrow afternoon at MPV per the LSC WRF. Even 4,700ft will be in the low to mid 60s. Top of Mansfield at 4300' and change will challenge its record of 67F tomorrow set back in 2002. Also of note, we did a study on our model back in March during the heat wave and we noticed it had a strong cold bias. On 3/20 we launched out own sounding and it showed a much deeper BL than what our model showed due to the dryness of the BL. At 850 that day, we were progged to hit 10C and we ended up getting to 12.6C at 20z. I think what will keep this from being record setting will be the higher clouds the come in during the afternoon tomorrow in NNE...storms should fire along that front tomorrow after 20z in NW VT and progress SE throughout the evening. The later we get those clouds, and the earlier the warm front passes, the higher we can go. The record at MPV of 84F has a chance to go down I think. Even our WRF model tops MPV out at 82F, which will most likely be low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Yeah, looks like 850mb gets to 16C tomorrow afternoon at MPV per the LSC WRF. Even 4,700ft will be in the low to mid 60s. Top of Mansfield at 4300' and change will challenge its record of 67F tomorrow set back in 2002. Also of note, we did a study on our model back in March during the heat wave and we noticed it had a strong cold bias. On 3/20 we launched out own sounding and it showed a much deeper BL than what our model showed due to the dryness of the BL. At 850 that day, we were progged to hit 10C and we ended up getting to 12.6C at 20z. I think what will keep this from being record setting will be the higher clouds the come in during the afternoon tomorrow in NNE...storms should fire along that front tomorrow after 20z in NW VT and progress SE throughout the evening. The later we get those clouds, and the earlier the warm front passes, the higher we can go. The record at MPV of 84F has a chance to go down I think. Even our WRF model tops MPV out at 82F, which will most likely be low. Cool stuff. Do you know what the max H85 temps were during that March heatwave? It was like 70F at 4,000ft, which makes even this heat seem very tame. If MPV sets a new record high by 1-3F, it won't be a biggie after they were setting records by 20-30F for a week straight in March, lol. That still blows my mind how ridiculous that heat wave was. The Burlington Free Press did an article about the wacky weather from 80s for a week in March, to 20-30" of snow in the higher elevations last week, and the stats they had from the March heatwave were unbelievable when put in the historical context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 The max h85 temps in the north country were 14-15C I believe, with 12-13C in SNE. With that well mixed, deep BL and very few clouds it still meant 81-83F. On one of the days we had more clouds here in the NEK, and it translated only to 78F while areas southern VT still reached 82-83F. Thats why I think if we see very few in the way of clouds, we will easily be 83-87F region wide. If we get those clouds in here earlier, we may struggle to hit 80F. It'll be a nowcasting situation early tomorrow morning. Currently going 79-84F for the NEK due to that uncertainty. BTW- I really think 4000' will hit 75F will a well mixed BL. It'll be dry adiabatic all the way from 850 down to the surface, so it may be 29C(84F) at the surface in Stowe village and still 23C(76F) at Mansifeld Not to get too nitpicky here or anything, but if its dry adiabatic from the mountain-top down, it'll be about 12C (22F) cooler at 4000 feet than at sea level (10C/km) or about 10C (18F) cooler than at 800 ft (Stowe Village). Of course that doesn't take into account differential heating or anything. In order for the mountains to be as warm or warmer than us, you want a less mixed boundary layer or even a stable layer with warm air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 Not to get too nitpicky here or anything, but if its dry adiabatic from the mountain-top down, it'll be about 12C (22F) cooler at 4000 feet than at sea level (10C/km) or about 10C (18F) cooler than at 800 ft (Stowe Village). Of course that doesn't take into account differential heating or anything. In order for the mountains to be as warm or warmer than us, you want a less mixed boundary layer or even a stable layer with warm air aloft. Yea obviously it's not true dry adiabatic due to differential heating and intense insolation. Don't always take theta literally in intense BL situations. I was more saying the lapse rates are going to be similar to the march heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Yea obviously it's not true dry adiabatic due to differential heating and intense insolation. Don't always take theta literally in intense BL situations. If anything it would be cooler at 4kft during intense BL mixing with a super adiabatic lapse rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 If anything it would be cooler at 4kft during intense BL mixing with a super adiabatic lapse rate. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 Exactly. Wow. I'm an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 Now that I'm out of class, I can actually look at what the eff happened with whatever I was looking at...Yeah it doesn't look like a super adiabatic sounding later today, but it does look close to dry adiabatic. So yeah, Stowe may get to 29C, and at the top of Mansfield it looks to be about 19-20C at 9.8C/km, which would still make a run at Mansfield's record of 67F...probably just short though (maybe 65F?). Currently 75/58 here. It's humid.Looks good for atleast 83F this afternoon over this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Now that I'm out of class, I can actually look at what the eff happened with whatever I was looking at...Yeah it doesn't look like a super adiabatic sounding later today, but it does look close to dry adiabatic. So yeah, Stowe may get to 29C, and at the top of Mansfield it looks to be about 19-20C at 9.8C/km, which would still make a run at Mansfield's record of 67F...probably just short though (maybe 65F?). Currently 75/58 here. It's humid.Looks good for atleast 83F this afternoon over this way. Yeah currently MMN is running about 17F cooler than Stowe right now, 61F vs. 78F, definitely a shot at the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 Yeah currently MMN is running about 17F cooler than Stowe right now, 61F vs. 78F, definitely a shot at the record. Yeah it'll be close I think. Are you a MET and/or MET student? You seem to know your stuff lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 Mansfield broke their record...69F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 It's hot, need rain. Please help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Max 88.4F. CON broke their previous record of 88F today set back in 2002...they reached at least 89F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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