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NNE Spring 2012


ctsnowstorm628

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I bet PF would enjoy the radar image I just pulled (below), those 35 db echoes are stacked up right along the spine; the higher elevations of Mansfield and Bolton are probably getting pounded with snow right now. Here in Burlington you’d never know anything was going on, it’s just cloudy, dry, and fairly pleasant.

God that is a sexy radar picture... I'm surprised that locally its so warm and hoping that cools a bit.

SLK is 34F and snowing at 1,600ft... but Stowe at 1,600ft is 36F and rain at the base with 30F summit.

Snow level appears to be somewhere near 2,000-2,500ft on Mansfield. Given my view from town and where the obvious visibility change occurs on the hills near town, it looks right near 2,200ft (I've got some good markers I can see out my window and know the elevations of them just for things like this, haha).

It is raining quite steadily in town. In fact when I woke up I was surprised that it was pouring.

Web cam from base area... snow level is probably 500-700ft higher.

And I love the 1.45 degree tilt on the BTV radar... shows the Chittenden County cut-off well. Nothing in Burlington while the upslope region is precipitating steadily and moderately.

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Was still snowing this morning in N.Maine, but I've not seen an update on accum since what Dryslot posted yesterday.

We've had off and on (mainly off) stuff, mostly frozen or semi-frozen, since Sat afternoon. Almost enough to get the ground wet this pre-dawn, but still at T for April. Sandy River down to 562 cfs this morning; record low flow for 4/9 is 490 in 1939. 2-3 more days with little-no qpf and it may be charting new territory.

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Looks like Pittsburg NH got some good snow overnight. Also see its snowing up at Coles Pond VT this morning. They are over 2000 feet.

Nice! Thats a caking overnight up there. I'm about to go for a skin up Mansfield early afternoon and excited to see whats happening at the summit. I bet its snowing pancakes up there right now.

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Walden getting a coating (Coldes Pond) as snow level drops a few more feet in Northern Vermont. Latest sounding about 35 degrees down to 2000 with stickem snow may 1900 up grassy surfaces -- different story tonight...

Ok that confirms my thinking that visually it looks like the rain changes to snow around 2,000ft in this area.

Will need to visually confirm this afternoon ;)

I'm surprised at the snow at lower elevations further west and south like SLK and it looks like the snow level is lower down in the Killington area.

Killington/Pico getting crushed down in Rutland area.

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Ok that confirms my thinking that visually it looks like the rain changes to snow around 2,000ft in this area.

Will need to visually confirm this afternoon ;)

I'm surprised at the snow at lower elevations further west and south like SLK and it looks like the snow level is lower down in the Killington area.

Killington/Pico getting crushed down in Rutland area.

Powderfreak -- check this http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/12km.fzlv.html

looks a little lower in S. Vt as colder wraps in from the west -- but evens out more before going up MM3 model. this afternoon and repeats tonight.

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Powderfreak -- check this http://cheget.msrc.s.../12km.fzlv.html

looks a little lower in S. Vt as colder wraps in from the west -- but evens out more before going up MM3 model. this afternoon and repeats tonight.

Good link, thanks... yeah that shows the Dacks and S/C VT with a little lower snow levels throughout pretty much. Sometimes I also wonder if the models show that because of the higher average terrain in that area and the Adirondacks.

Anyway, it is snowing nicely at 1,800ft in Starksboro, Addison County near MRG.

current.jpg?1333980205

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KVTSTARK2

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These are the meso-scale events I love... look at that gradient in Chittenden County: nothing in Burlington and a few miles east it is a soaking precipitation event of either rain or snow depending on elevation.

Radar isn't showing this side of the Spine very well but it is a soaking rain here in Stowe village at 800ft.

1.45 degree scan to show the gradient from BTV to the eastern suburbs/western slopes.

Composite:

And the VAD... moist west flow FTW.

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Definitely looking at a significant upslope event up here today and tonight above 1,800ft during the day and above 1,300feet tonight in the spine. Higher levels elsewhere in N VT. Mansfield could easily see a foot to a foot and a half.

I think people will be surprised at the difference between the actual snow level and the accumulating snow level. Even right now, the snow level is near 1,300ft and the accumulating snow level is closer to 1,800ft in the spine.

Props to PF calling this one a ways out...haven't been in NNE since the 3/30 so really didn't pay attention honestly, LOL.

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The view of the upslope snowfall is kind of cool from here in Burlington today; we’re used to seeing the wall of white along the mountains, but at times this morning it has been even more defined than usual. One can watch the clouds move horizontally overhead from west to east, I’m guessing the ceiling is at mountaintop level, perhaps 4,000’ – 5,000’, and then right in front of the mountains, the clouds blend with a vertical wall of what looks like clouds and snow. The interface was looking overtly perpendicular around midday today, so I snapped a photo. We’re looking right on at Mt. Mansfield from here at UVM, so one can’t really make out the wall effect in that direction (due east), but looking toward the southeast you start to look more in line with the spine, so I took the picture of the northernmost part of the Central Greens (just south of I-89). The coolest effect is with the motion of the clouds moving toward the wall overhead, but a static image is still neat. The wall effect seems most obvious on the left side of the image:

09APR12A.jpg

Not a bad view to watch during lunch!

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pretty fun few days aheadit looks like. much needed soaker ongoing here at the house, hour to hour changes in visibility and precip. a couple slurpy sessions but mostly rain.

a far different story over 2000'. I had a chuckle listening to the eye on sky indicating a couple of inches up high, already over boot (6+) above 2900' at 3:30. Snowin and blowin.

should be a beautiful sight come friday when the mountains come back out of the clouds.

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It looks like the first round of this event delivered a nice shot of liquid equivalent to Mt. Mansfield – the new snow value of 11.5 inches from the co-op is somewhat believable since the snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield Stake increased by 9 inches since yesterday.

09APR12B.jpg

I hear this might just keep going for a while; the Mansfield point forecast has additional significant accumulations down for tonight:

Tonight: Snow. Low around 27. Windy, with a west wind between 31 and 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Tuesday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 28 mph decreasing to between 17 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

09APR12B.gif

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Some serious pancakes must be falling on Mansfield given the bright-banding showing up. Absolutely pouring rain here at 800ft. Heavy, heavy upslope precipitation. With over 1.0" in the bucket up at the mountain, maybe the BTV WRF from yesterday showing a 2.12" maximum over Mt Mansfield wasn't as far off as I thought it would be.

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I knew this season was so much like Spring 2010. Record heat with +30F departures causing early melt out... then a monster April upslope event from a cut-off low. Just in 2010 it was like 2-3 weeks later with 21" on Mansfield on April 28th-29th.

3-day snowfall totals by Wednesday afternoon could be impressive as this upper level low is going no where quickly with prolonged cyclonic upslope flow. The Greens are making magic happen.

Tonight: Snow. Low around 26. Windy, with a west wind between 31 and 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Tuesday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 28 mph decreasing to between 17 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

NWS talking more accumulating snows for the Spine through Wednesday too... cut-off low and upslope flow means snow for days in the mountains.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SNOW IN OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...ALMOST A PERSISTENCE DAY...EXCEPT MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ON WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND UPPER TROF ALSO BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE DROPPED POPS DOWN TO JUST CHANCE AFTER ALMOST 4 PERIODS OF LIKELY POPS.

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It has not let up all day long. Wow. Still pouring in town and coming down heavily above 1,500ft.

Temps

4,000ft...28F (1.98" total precip as of 4pm; likely near 2.5" at 9:15pm)

1,600ft...34F (2.09" total precip as of 9:15pm)

800ft...37F

April9_900pm.gif

Scott with the temperature profile you have to think the ratios are in the 8-1 or at best 10-1 range. Even so...that's a GREAT load of snow up there...and it continued all night.

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