powderfreak Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 As far as I know from what Powderfreak has talked about in the past, it’s the engineers that work up on some of the Mt. Mansfield transmission towers, but they could be doing the liquid catching/new snow measurement, and it could be someone else checking the stake. When I’ve been at Stowe toward the end of the day before, I’ve seen guys come from a TV station truck and head up the Mt. Mansfield Toll Road on snowmobiles, and assumed that they would check the depth of the stake on their way up. Powderfreak can probably fill out the rest of the details, but he has said that many of the guys don’t care too much about the data and only do it because they are required to, which is unfortunately not the best recipe for fastidious data collection. This is all correct and last year myself and the ski patroller met with the guy in charge of the measuring/data collection and we showed him our collection method and snow board locations. Three things we found out that leads to grossly under reported snowfall: -Collection method -Arbitrary once per day recording -Human element They are engineers who don't care about the accuracy per se...they are doing a favor by looking at the depth at the stake at the 4pm shift change. Then they measure the snow and liquid in the 8-inch diameter bucket. They know it is wrong some days or most days and admitted that. But for 60 years people have measured snow in that bucket on a wind swept rock so they aren't about to change it. They admit driving a snowmobile up through 12" of snow but reporting 6" if that's what's in the bucket. The day we met with them, we had 4" on our snowboard at 3000 feet. The guy witnessed it and we said he should not have less than that when he reports into the NWS in a few hours. He again said I report what flakes manage to find their way in the 8-inch hole...sure enough, that night he reported 2.5" vs the 4.0" we showed him. But I can understand from a consistency standpoint that if it's going to be wrong, it's consistently wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 <p>who looks at the stake? WCAX engineers at shift change. No one has a problem with the stake depth because that's pretty hard to screw up...you just read a number off the stake. The problem lies a quarter to a half mile up the road where they collect the actual snowfall "new" numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 But I can understand from a consistency standpoint that if it's going to be wrong, it's consistently wrong. Personally, I’m all for saying nuts to the consistency and starting with an appropriate snow collection method, because unfortunately there’s no rigorous, year-round collection taking place to document snowfall and precipitation on Vermont’s highest peak. Your observations only take place during the lift-served ski season, so those can’t document all the snowfall, and we know about the deficiencies with the rain gauge for snowfall (I have to think that method is missing at least some of the winter liquid equivalent as well); it would just be nice to really know what the total liquid and snowfall is up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 So dry, we can't even muster any frost on a 25F morning. Otherwise: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 So dry, we can't even muster any frost on a 25F morning. Otherwise: Beautiful morning. I haven't been paying too much attention but I thought it was supposed to be cloudy at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Hey Brian....ended up going to Giuseppe's on Thursday Night. That pizza is great and it looks like they have live bands and DJ as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Mostly cloudy and 40s here at noon, with enough breeze to make for a chill. Sandy River flow down near 600 cfs, only 180 from lowest on record for the date. Median flow is 2,770 cfs. Forecast has lots of rainy wx next week, but not much rain. Just got some pics from family in Decatur, and central IL looks like a normal Memorial Day weekend here! Trees are at 80%+ of full leaf-out, dandelions in bloom, lawn needs mowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Mostly cloudy and 40s here at noon, with enough breeze to make for a chill. Sandy River flow down near 600 cfs, only 180 from lowest on record for the date. Median flow is 2,770 cfs. Forecast has lots of rainy wx next week, but not much rain. Just got some pics from family in Decatur, and central IL looks like a normal Memorial Day weekend here! Trees are at 80%+ of full leaf-out, dandelions in bloom, lawn needs mowing. Tamarack, what's the best place to get river flow data (historical and current)? I've never really spent any time looking at hydro stuff but I bet our area rivers are close to all time lows here in what is usually the heart of snowmelt season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 <p> Tamarack, what's the best place to get river flow data (historical and current)? I've never really spent any time looking at hydro stuff but I bet our area rivers are close to all time lows here in what is usually the heart of snowmelt season. http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nh/nwis/current/?type=flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Thanks Ginx. I am lacking in hydro bookmarks so that's a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Hey Brian....ended up going to Giuseppe's on Thursday Night. That pizza is great and it looks like they have live bands and DJ as well. Nice. They have some really good entrees too...the gal and I have been talking about getting back up there to eat sometime, but she's been having some Hart's cravings so it may need to wait. I like eating outside there on a warm night with a breeze to keep the bugs away. Town Docks down the road isn't bad for diner like food too. They're part of the Common Man family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Snowing up in N NH tonight. -SN at HIE, MWN, and the Franconia Notch RWIS sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Snowing up in N NH tonight. -SN at HIE, MWN, and the Franconia Notch RWIS sites. good to hear dust the mountains wish i was headed to wildcat tomo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Nice persistent light snow this morning... dusting from 1,000ft and above. Even at 800ft starting to see some on the top of the cars. 33F and -SN. Should be a good sign for whats to come this week with orographic snow showers. Picked up about a half inch dusting on the mountain in some snow showers between 5am-6:30am. Skinned up for the Easter Sunrise Service and then skied down. Was nice to have flakes in the air all morning. In the hour and a half I was up on the mountain we picked up a nice dusting in the base area. And up at 3,625ft for the Easter morning services, it was coming down nicely. Hopefully we can have another snowy week with that cut-off low. Lets keep increasing the moisture along with the northerly flow and back it around to the northwest a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Looks like it's snowing well up in N ME too. Just BKN skies here this morning and a temp of 36F. We'll probably climb up to the low 50s with partial sun this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsh Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Light snow & graupel in Kennebunkport for about 1/2 hour now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I've been talking about this in the Banter thread but realized its probably better in here and will use this thread to discuss the upslope potential... Big upslope event about to unfold tomorrow? Heavy rain in the valleys and heavy snow at the summits? BTV 4km WRF is almost laughable with how much QPF it prints out in a 24 hour period tomorrow. GFS is likely too light as usual for a larger grid model. The first key though is having the larger grid GFS even show measurable across the favored regions... That told me that the BTV WRF would likely have something good and it does. As it tends to do, it went a little too wild with orographics as I highly doubt here in Lamoille County we see widespread 0.5-2" of QPF tomorrow (with Mansfield bullseye at 2.12"). I mean, this shows all of Lamoille County getting greater than a half inch of liquid tomorrow which is likely excessive. What should happen though is good moisture and flow leads to a bunch of 3-hourly totals of 0.1-0.25" across the upslope areas. Snow levels at night could get down to the valley floors around here like they are this morning (500-1000ft) but during the day will rise up to 2,000ft or higher. However, I've seen when models think snow levels should be high, with concentrated precipitation and upslope enhanced cooling, cloud cover, steady precip, etc, that the snow levels along the upslope area may be locally lower than what other areas experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I'm starting to think this could be a good event. The graphical forecast has 70-90% chances of snow through Tuesday and implies the biggest accums Monday night. Monday: Snow showers likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Windy, with a west wind between 31 and 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Monday Night: Snow showers. Low around 24. Windy, with a west wind between 29 and 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Tuesday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Southwest wind between 10 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Vim Toot! Presque Isle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Getting steady & persistent flurries here for about an hour now, if steady flurries are possible, heh. It's in the upper 30s and didn't go below freezing overnight, so it's not sticking at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Allenson I know what you mean...steady 8-10 mile vis snow haha. Great AFD by BTV...Advisory level snow possible Monday night they mention along with over 1" QPF Mansfield to Jay Peak. Short term /11 PM this evening through Tuesday/... as of 400 am EDT Sunday...the chances for precipitation increase on Monday into Tuesday...with some accumulating snow likely for the mountains above 1500 feet late Monday into Tuesday. Advisory type snow possible on Monday night...especially northern greens and parts of the dacks. Deep closed middle/upper level circulation will retrograde west toward northern Vermont by Monday and rotate plenty of deep Atlantic moisture into our central and northern County Warning Area. Meanwhile...a westerly follow from the surface through 850 mb will enhance low level lift...especially across the western slopes and northern dacks on Monday into Tuesday...with downslope shadowing resulting in less quantitative precipitation forecast across the cpv and parts of the CT river valleys. Both NAM/GFS and our local mesoscale-scale models show a favorable low level blocking scenario developing with a westerly follow...which should place higher quantitative precipitation forecast amounts across the immediate western slopes from Mount Mansfield to Jay Peak and across the northern dacks on Monday into Tuesday. Quantitative precipitation forecast fields off the GFS/NAM both show over 1.0" possible near Jay Peak to Mansfield...with less than 0.10" at btv...showing the very sharp precipitation gradient which is very typical of these events. Thermal profiles will be tricky...with best potential for accumulating snowfall on Monday night into Tuesday morning above 1500 feet across the central/northern greens. On Monday...feel bl temperatures warm between 1 and 3c...with 925mb temperatures near 2c...while 850 mb temperatures stay between -2c and -4c...supporting snow levels above 2500ft. However...these temperatures will cool slightly on Monday night with northerly follow and the loss of surface heating from the high sun angle. Meanwhile...favorable deep layer moisture and several embedded vorts will rotate through our County Warning Area and enhance synoptic lift...along with favorable upslope follow/blocking will provide lvll mesoscale-scale lift across our mountains this low level cooling and lift will result in dropping snow levels with some accumulation likely by 12z Tuesday....especially above 1500ft. Thinking a general 2 to 5 inches will be possible across the mountains...with a mixture of very light rain/snow showers possible across the valleys with total quantitative precipitation forecast <0.10 through 12z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Saw that in the disco. Wouldn't be surprised to see accumulating snow here, particularly if we had a nice burst in the overnight hours. Any precip/moisture is welcomed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 It's flaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Saw that in the disco. Wouldn't be surprised to see accumulating snow here, particularly if we had a nice burst in the overnight hours. Any precip/moisture is welcomed at this point. Yeah I think this will be a more widespread event for the interior hills with the upper level support...its not all low level driven so Monday night could be a widespread 0.5-3" type of deal below 1500ft...with 3"+ above that level. Maybe a foot at summit level where it'll be in the 20s throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 18z NAM continues with a huge upslope hit above 2,000ft. This is the one time the NAM is usually under-done is in these orographic events due to grid size. Here's the 6-hour QPF panels showing the textbook QPF across N.VT and N.NY and surface low placement in northern Maine which is where I like to see it. Last panel is the 24 hour QPF ending 15z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I've been talking about this in the Banter thread but realized its probably better in here and will use this thread to discuss the upslope potential...Big upslope event about to unfold tomorrow? Heavy rain in the valleys and heavy snow at the summits? The banter thread does have the “Nothing but normal to slightly above for days and days” focus, so this is probably a better fit. It’s great to see the event is getting some discussion now though; I wouldn’t be surprised if even the mountain valleys could pick up some accumulation if things came together – could mean some addition to the April/seasonal snowfall totals. It will be nice to get back into some NNE April weather, our point forecast in the valley shows some snow potential: Point forecast for the higher elevations of Mt. Mansfield is already starting to indicate some accumulations through tomorrow night: Monday: Snow showers likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Windy, with a west wind between 33 and 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Monday Night: Snow showers. Low around 25. Windy, with a west wind around 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 18z NAM continues with a huge upslope hit above 2,000ft. This is the one time the NAM is usually under-done is in these orographic events due to grid size. Here's the 6-hour QPF panels showing the textbook QPF across N.VT and N.NY and surface low placement in northern Maine which is where I like to see it. Last panel is the 24 hour QPF ending 15z Tuesday. The banter thread does have the “Nothing but normal to slightly above for days and days” focus, so this is probably a better fit. It’s great to see the event is getting some discussion now though; I wouldn’t be surprised if even the mountain valleys could pick up some accumulation if things came together – could mean some addition to the April/seasonal snowfall totals. It will be nice to get back into some NNE April weather, our point forecast in the valley shows some snow potential: Point forecast for the higher elevations of Mt. Mansfield is already starting to indicate some accumulations through tomorrow night: I'll be happy just to get the moisture. At this point it does not matter to me whether it falls as rain or snow. Here iws the point and click for my spot. Tonight Mostly Cloudy Lo 36 °F Monday Chance Rain/Snow Hi 43 °F Monday Night Rain/Snow Likely Lo 31 °F Tuesday Chance Rain/Snow Hi 46 °F Tuesday Night Chance Rain/Snow Lo 29 °F Wednesday Chance Rain/Snow Hi 45 °F Wednesday Night Chance Rain/Snow Lo 32 °F Thursday Chance Rain/Snow Hi 44 °F Thursday Night Mostly Cloudy Lo 27 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Nice, Snow lives!! NOUS41 KCAR 082056 PNSCAR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-090856- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 456 PM EDT SUN APR 08 2012 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...CWOP OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS...FACEBOOK FANS...AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CARIBOU ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT MAINE ...AROOSTOOK COUNTY... FORT FAIRFIELD 2 NE 6.0 1040 AM 4/08 PRESQUE ISLE 5.2 1228 PM 4/08 CONNOR 5.1 104 PM 4/08 CARIBOU 4 ENE 5.0 1206 PM 4/08 CASTLE HILL 1 SSE 5.0 1224 PM 4/08 LIMESTONE 5.0 1239 PM 4/08 CARIBOU 1 N 4.7 1116 AM 4/08 PORTAGE 2 N 4.5 118 PM 4/08 LILLE 5 SSE 4.5 1257 PM 4/08 SAINT AGATHA 4.5 453 PM 4/08 MADAWASKA 4.0 102 PM 4/08 SAINT AGATHA 2 WNW 3.5 1231 PM 4/08 MADAWASKA 2.5 1051 AM 4/08 MONTICELLO 2.5 1056 AM 4/08 HOULTON 2 ESE 2.5 313 PM 4/08 LILLE 2.4 209 PM 4/08 FORT KENT 1 SW 1.5 1053 AM 4/08 $$ PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Event totals: 0.07” L.E. It was dry yesterday evening, but I woke up to find steady rain and 0.07” of liquid in the gauge during the 6:00 A.M. observations this morning. This is apparently the start of the precipitation from the cutoff low pressure system in Northern Maine; the forecast suggests that it will be pumping moisture into the area to produce rain and snow for much of the week. I’m not sure if there will be any accumulating snow down in the lower valleys, but since it’s a long-duration event, I’ll try to post the running total of what we’re getting for precipitation at our location. Currently it’s 30 F at 3,950’ on Mt. Mansfield, so I suspect that the snow line is pretty high – probably up around 2,500’ to 3,000’ as the BTV NWS suggests in their forecast discussion. The snow level is expected to drop to around 1,500’ tonight with cooler temperatures. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below: Temperature: 41.5 F Sky: Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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