My View on the Future of the NWS

[CTSkywarn]

Hello Folks,

It is my pleasure to have registered as a new user to your forum. I've read your posts for many months now, but just hadn't registered until now. Now, a little bit myself. I've been interested in the weather since I was about 12, every since Hurricane Gloria hit. I use to bring the weather radio every where I go and used to love hearing the siren go off at home every time a severe thunderstorm or big winter storm hit. I was going to go to school to be a Meteorologist, but changed my mind after taking Psychics, since I only got a C and had to drop out of Calculus 2. That was then. Now, I'm 38 and unfortunately see the government for what it is. As in many other industries (besides Meteorology, of course) it has been determined that private industry can do the same thing just as well, if not better than the government.

So, my idea here is not to totally get rid of the National Weather Service, but to privatize it to a great degree. For instance, all the climate centers and NWS headquarters could continue to operate just as they do now. After all, we need them to gather the weather models and make them available to all meteorologists to interpret. However, the big change will be to close all the other forecast offices across the country. We would then change the NWS warning areas to almost exclusively be confined to the media market areas. Let me give you an example. In Connecticut, for instance, the Hartford/New Haven media market area is now comprised of 3 separate NWS offices!! Albany, which handles Litchfield county, Taunton which handles the other 3 northern counties, and Upton which covers the 4 southern counties. The new approach would have one exclusive NWS affiliate which would cover the whole media market. This affiliate would likely be one of the television stations which has a weather team. Preference would be given to the station with the largest number of meteorologists staffed. For instance, it could be WFSB Channel 3 in Hartford. They would be in charge of issuing all the official forecasts and warnings for Connecticut. The station would be required to always have at least one meteorologist on staff 24 hours a day and have higher staffing during severe weather. They would also be encouraged (but not required) to hire one of the NWS Meteorologists from one of the former offices to oversee operations. Now, the only location I could think of right now that may need to keep the regular staffed NWS Forecast office would be Honolulu, HI. This would be because the TV stations there do not hire full time meteorologists, unlike the rest of the country. As far as the NOAA Weather Radio network, that would be completely decommissioned. HOWEVER, the big change would be that any warning would be ABSOLUTELY required to be carried by the Emergency Alert System on every single licensed TV and Radio station! Right now it is optional to carry these warnings. Now, it would be required. The same requirement as if there is a Federal Emergency Broadcast. This approach would reach more people, because at any given moment someone would likely have a TV or radio on get the warnings. They could also build the new TV and everyday radios to sound alarms if the EAS tone sounds. Dish Network and DirecTV would also be required to figure out how to make their subscribers get the current warnings.

The other big change would be to only have warnings, and no longer have watches. Both the National Hurricane Center and the National Severe Storms laboratory would be closed. AccuWeather, in College Station, PA would take over the responsibilities of both the National Hurricane Center and National Severe Storms Laboratory. They would be required to have a 24/7 forecast team to handle all of the severe weather outlooks and hurricane advisories during the hurricane season. This would include the tropical weather outlook and hurricane watches and warnings. Yes, we would still have watches only for hurricanes and tropical storms. The Weather Service will no longer fly airplanes into hurricanes. AccuWeather would rely on satellite and radar data to determine their hurricane forecasts and positions.

Now, the reason why I would suggest getting rid of the other watches and just have warnings is because Watches and Warnings are used interchangeably by the on air personalities of radio stations. I've heard several times where they would go on the air and say we are under a warning..when it is only a watch and they say would also say we are under a watch when it has been upgraded to a warning. That really defeats the whole purpose. Sometimes I don't even think they know the difference between a watch and a warning. Especially on those hard rock stations that have no news team...just some jock with a million piercings giving the weather. Rule is...make it as simple as possible. YES... have severe weather outlooks issued that are widely broadcasted. For instance... “High Risk Of Severe Thunderstorms today”....then have a warning issued when the storm is imminent.

Oh, and yes, I can't leave out the Skywarn program. This would be also be changed. The TV station which is the official NWS affiliate would be encouraged, but not required, to have their own storm watch team of spotters. These people would be required to pass an on-line course or classroom course held by the NWS Affiliate on the fundamentals of severe weather. They wouldn't necessarily have to know the difference between a shelf cloud or a wall cloud but they should be able to spot a tornado when there is one and know how to give hail, and wind reports.

Well, there you have it folks. My blueprint for a new National Weather Service. I'm sure some of you will disagree with my recommendations. But, hopefully you'll be respectful of a fellow non-meteorlogist.

[Ginx snewx]

Welcome, disagree in so many areas but you make some salient points. The future in warnings is smart technology. All media needs to be required to tone out severe warnings. You have oversimplified complex issues but again welcome to the board.

[baroclinic_instability]

You sound like you are a straight accuweather employee. Everything you just posted here is complete nonsense pulled straight from the Accuweather playbook.

[Ginx snewx]

You sound like you are a straight accuweather employee. Everything you just posted here is complete nonsense pulled straight from the Accuweather playbook.

Rick Santorum style. We do need to get up to speed quickly though, the govt moves too slow. Technology is racing past NWS. GPS warnings for zones etc.

[baroclinic_instability]

Rick Santorum style. We do need to get up to speed quickly though, the govt moves too slow. Technology is racing past NWS. GPS warnings for zones etc.

There are a lot of things to improve and work on, I won't disagree with that. I was ready to can this thread since it is likely a troll thread, but I won't since I probably have an obvious bias. But it is clear this individual has never worked in a WFO or understands anything about atmospheric research or meteorology in general (or is simply a troll). Close NSSL/NHC and let Accuweather take over, huh? I could only imagine a demand driven premium fee for hurricane forecasts/emergency response preparations. Forget about the decades of research and incredible research minds who are much more interested in other things than filling their own pockets with cash (although I will say there many dedicated and caring Accuweather meteorologists). Not everything in this world is meant to be for profit.

The quote about moving WFO's only to large markets is laughable, especially after this latest outbreak. Nothing like telling the public, "we don't care about you, we are only serving the large cities!".

[Nittany88]

There are a lot of things to improve and work on, I won't disagree with that. I was ready to can this thread since it is likely a troll thread, but I won't since I probably have an obvious bias. But it is clear this individual has never worked in a WFO or understands anything about atmospheric research or meteorology in general (or is simply a troll). Close NSSL/NHC and let Accuweather take over, huh? I could only imagine a demand driven premium fee for hurricane forecasts/emergency response preparations. Forget about the decades of research and incredible research minds who are much more interested in other things than filling their own pockets with cash (although I will say there many dedicated and caring Accuweather meteorologists). Not everything in this world is meant to be for profit.

The quote about moving WFO's only to large markets is laughable, especially after this latest outbreak. Nothing like telling the public, "we don't care about you, we are only serving the large cities!".

Could you imagine the Joe Bastardi's and Henry Margusity's of Accuweather being the future of weather prediction for the US? God help us if that were ever to happen.

[snowman21]

Where's College Station PA?

[OKpowdah]

[ctsnowstorm628]

Yeah it's totally cool guys, just close all the Nws offices, fire all the brilliant researchers and forecasters, and close the NHC and don't fly planes into hurricanes so we can save money and rely on model data in the middle of the oceans. Good call bro. Have fun in college station,pa hahah

Honestly I didn't read this whole thing and thought you guys were bashing then I read it all, and I'm surprised everyone has remained so calm. This is so wrong on so many levels.

[weatherwiz]

Hello Folks,

It is my pleasure to have registered as a new user to your forum. I've read your posts for many months now, but just hadn't registered until now. Now, a little bit myself. I've been interested in the weather since I was about 12, every since Hurricane Gloria hit. I use to bring the weather radio every where I go and used to love hearing the siren go off at home every time a severe thunderstorm or big winter storm hit. I was going to go to school to be a Meteorologist, but changed my mind after taking Psychics, since I only got a C and had to drop out of Calculus 2. That was then. Now, I'm 38 and unfortunately see the government for what it is. As in many other industries (besides Meteorology, of course) it has been determined that private industry can do the same thing just as well, if not better than the government.

So, my idea here is not to totally get rid of the National Weather Service, but to privatize it to a great degree. For instance, all the climate centers and NWS headquarters could continue to operate just as they do now. After all, we need them to gather the weather models and make them available to all meteorologists to interpret. However, the big change will be to close all the other forecast offices across the country. We would then change the NWS warning areas to almost exclusively be confined to the media market areas. Let me give you an example. In Connecticut, for instance, the Hartford/New Haven media market area is now comprised of 3 separate NWS offices!! Albany, which handles Litchfield county, Taunton which handles the other 3 northern counties, and Upton which covers the 4 southern counties. The new approach would have one exclusive NWS affiliate which would cover the whole media market. This affiliate would likely be one of the television stations which has a weather team. Preference would be given to the station with the largest number of meteorologists staffed. For instance, it could be WFSB Channel 3 in Hartford. They would be in charge of issuing all the official forecasts and warnings for Connecticut. The station would be required to always have at least one meteorologist on staff 24 hours a day and have higher staffing during severe weather. They would also be encouraged (but not required) to hire one of the NWS Meteorologists from one of the former offices to oversee operations. Now, the only location I could think of right now that may need to keep the regular staffed NWS Forecast office would be Honolulu, HI. This would be because the TV stations there do not hire full time meteorologists, unlike the rest of the country. As far as the NOAA Weather Radio network, that would be completely decommissioned. HOWEVER, the big change would be that any warning would be ABSOLUTELY required to be carried by the Emergency Alert System on every single licensed TV and Radio station! Right now it is optional to carry these warnings. Now, it would be required. The same requirement as if there is a Federal Emergency Broadcast. This approach would reach more people, because at any given moment someone would likely have a TV or radio on get the warnings. They could also build the new TV and everyday radios to sound alarms if the EAS tone sounds. Dish Network and DirecTV would also be required to figure out how to make their subscribers get the current warnings.

The other big change would be to only have warnings, and no longer have watches. Both the National Hurricane Center and the National Severe Storms laboratory would be closed. AccuWeather, in College Station, PA would take over the responsibilities of both the National Hurricane Center and National Severe Storms Laboratory. They would be required to have a 24/7 forecast team to handle all of the severe weather outlooks and hurricane advisories during the hurricane season. This would include the tropical weather outlook and hurricane watches and warnings. Yes, we would still have watches only for hurricanes and tropical storms. The Weather Service will no longer fly airplanes into hurricanes. AccuWeather would rely on satellite and radar data to determine their hurricane forecasts and positions.

Now, the reason why I would suggest getting rid of the other watches and just have warnings is because Watches and Warnings are used interchangeably by the on air personalities of radio stations. I've heard several times where they would go on the air and say we are under a warning..when it is only a watch and they say would also say we are under a watch when it has been upgraded to a warning. That really defeats the whole purpose. Sometimes I don't even think they know the difference between a watch and a warning. Especially on those hard rock stations that have no news team...just some jock with a million piercings giving the weather. Rule is...make it as simple as possible. YES... have severe weather outlooks issued that are widely broadcasted. For instance... “High Risk Of Severe Thunderstorms today”....then have a warning issued when the storm is imminent.

Oh, and yes, I can't leave out the Skywarn program. This would be also be changed. The TV station which is the official NWS affiliate would be encouraged, but not required, to have their own storm watch team of spotters. These people would be required to pass an on-line course or classroom course held by the NWS Affiliate on the fundamentals of severe weather. They wouldn't necessarily have to know the difference between a shelf cloud or a wall cloud but they should be able to spot a tornado when there is one and know how to give hail, and wind reports.

Well, there you have it folks. My blueprint for a new National Weather Service. I'm sure some of you will disagree with my recommendations. But, hopefully you'll be respectful of a fellow non-meteorlogist.

Welcome.

I have to completely disagree with just about everything you said in your second paragraph. To have anyone but the NWS issue watches/warnings would be a complete and total disaster and to eliminate the local offices we have would be another major disaster. Regions/areas are broken down into different coverage areas based on radar coverage, so for instance here in CT we have 3 different offices covering the state b/c for Litchfield County Taunton's or Upton's radar beam doesn't great a great look and Albany's has the best, for the other three northern counties Taunton's gets the best and for the four southern counties Upton's radar has the best look.

When it comes to issuing watches and warnings only those with the most training/experience and knowledge should be the ones in charge of this. If these decisions were made to TV mets they would have to go through extensive training programs and remember not all TV mets have degrees or probably great knowledge of certain thresholds that the NWS uses when determining when to issue watches or warnings.

As for the third paragraph I have to completely disagree as well. Watches are just as important as warnings are. Watches give the public a heads up regarding a certain potential that exists and this allows the public to prepare for certain conditions. If you have no watches and only warnings people will be completely caught off guard and this massively increases the risk of public safety.

As far as the skywarn program goes each station does have it's team of "spotters"...now these people aren't trained through their program but these are people who have been reporting to the news station for years and TV mets at these stations have developed a great deal of trust with these people. You also have people who have been skywarn trained report to local news outlets.

Also, I know this is the case at least for BOX but the skywarn team here does a tremendous job with relying reports to local media outlets. I know at BOX there are at least two guys on that team who do an outstanding job with sending out media reports at least once every hour, if not more. They receive a great deal of positive feedback from many TV mets throughout the region.

[Jonger]

Too many individual micro climates to blanket the country with a private industry. Lake effect regions in particular need more attention then flat northern plain regions.

[NECT]

Whoa fella.

"The other big change would be to only have warnings, and no longer have watches. Both the National Hurricane Center and the National Severe Storms laboratory would be closed. AccuWeather, in College Station, PA would take over the responsibilities of both the National Hurricane Center and National Severe Storms Laboratory. They would be required to have a 24/7 forecast team to handle all of the severe weather outlooks and hurricane advisories during the hurricane season."

I have a couple questions about these specific issues. First, the purpose of watches is to alert people of potential hazards. Warnings are issues when weather hazards are imminent, or at least highly likely. Watches are issues so that local/state officials have time to consider their options, If we wait until, for instance, a hurricane is more than likeley to affect a given area, it's too late to make plans to get people out and prepare for the worst.

Second, Accuweather has a history of perhaps hyping events, or at least overstating possibile weather events to generate interest in their web site. Perhaps I'm overstating what they do, but their bottom line is profit, and not public safety. NWS is responsible for scientific research, data collection, and forecasting/public safety. You mentioned that CT is covered by 3 different NWS offices. Let's be reasonable here. State borders are for the most part arbitrary, and not created in accordance with climate. I can't come up with a scenario that would have every state covered by one NWS office. Nor can I come up with a scenario that would have NWS offices confined to areas with a one size fits all forecast (unless you want to create a lotm ore NWS offices). That's not the way weather works. tIf you are against public services in general, then just come out and say that. i may disagree, but you would have an argument that remains consistent, as you can't justify weather climates and saving money into one argument. Since you've gotten me this far (if you're just trolling that is) take the insurance business as an example. The premise of insurance is to protect people against financial and health issues. To some extent that happens, but to a larger extent, insurance companies deny and cut claims in order to protect their profits (as any business would). In general, people who can afford better insureance, get better protection. Are you proposing that people should only be able to get quality weather information if they can afford it?

[NECT]

Wiz:

"If these decisions were made to TV mets they would have to go through extensive training programs and remember not all TV mets have degrees or probably great knowledge..."

Probably the most important point. NWS can require standards for people making forecasts. Accuweather and other commercial forecasting outlets could conceivably hire anyone to make forecasts.

Let's not forget that some TV stations and some radio stations either echo NWS forecasts, or do a rip and read from their model of choice.

[jshetley]

You sound like you are a straight accuweather employee. Everything you just posted here is complete nonsense pulled straight from the Accuweather playbook.

Agree 100%. Thankfully this trash should never happen but if it did it would be a disaster.

[NorthShoreWx]

_{AccuWx could then do the only sensible thing and outsource warnings and media coordination to this guy:}

[powderfreak]

Too many individual micro climates to blanket the country with a private industry. Lake effect regions in particular need more attention then flat northern plain regions.

This is a very interesting and great point. I love how the NWS offices know the little micro-climates of their area. Like lake effect, ocean effect, upslope/downsloping, etc...I can only speak locally but its probably the same in the lake effect regions, too. BTV is very good about forecasting upslope precipitation events in our area of the Green Mountains, however, I've never seen any private source (AccuWeather, TWC, etc) even come close to grasping these concepts. Try telling the folks stuck on the most heavily traveled interstate portion in the state on I-89 between Burlington and Montpelier to chill out because Accuweather has a 20% chance of scattered snow showers while its snowing 2"/hr with 10" on the ground.

[SmokeEater]

There isn't enough LOL's to go around for this whole post. You completely lose all shred of credibility when you state do away with watches, and have AccuWX take over NHC's and NSSL's responsibilities.

[Ellinwood]

lol

This is probably the worst paragraph out of all of them:

The other big change would be to only have warnings, and no longer have watches. Both the National Hurricane Center and the National Severe Storms laboratory would be closed. AccuWeather, in College Station, PA would take over the responsibilities of both the National Hurricane Center and National Severe Storms Laboratory. They would be required to have a 24/7 forecast team to handle all of the severe weather outlooks and hurricane advisories during the hurricane season. This would include the tropical weather outlook and hurricane watches and warnings. Yes, we would still have watches only for hurricanes and tropical storms. The Weather Service will no longer fly airplanes into hurricanes. AccuWeather would rely on satellite and radar data to determine their hurricane forecasts and positions.

had to tl;dr that second paragraph, but I'm sure it's a doozy.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I didn't know psychics was offered in Met programs

[Ellinwood]

I didn't know psychics was offered in Met programs

Physics I, II and III are typically required.

[ORH_wxman]

This thread is beyond laughable...its either a troll thread or the OP is completely ignorant of how forecasting works on the operational; level and not some idealized Accuweather fantasy land.

Time to close this junk.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Well I missed this doozy.