Possible Severe and/or Heavy Rain Threat March 7-8?

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

I don't like the idea starting a severe thread after the events of the last 5 days, but the SPC is hinting at the possibility of a "marginal severe threat across the eastern portion of the Southern Plains towards the lower MS valley" in their 4-8 day outlook this morning, but IMO doesn't seem too impressed at this time:

http://www.spc.noaa....s/exper/day4-8/

Meanwhile, for the past day ILX has been hinting at the possibility of severe and/or heavy rain with the next system on Wednesday/Thursday here in central Illinois, as this afternoons HWO indicates:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS

SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST FROM 35 TO 40 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF

THURSDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS...AND OR HEAVY RAINFALL...COULD BE

POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEEP

INFORMED OF LATER FORECASTS AS THE SITUATION BECOMES BETTER

DEFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

GEELHART

[Indystorm]

Today's GFS certainly looks warm with several storms throughout its run. We will have to see what transpires. The thing I like about models is that they give you the hint of potential but you still virtually have to wait till day of to get specifics wrt sv wx. With the leap day system the surface low intensified deeper than expected. And although the March 2 system was expected to be stronger I don't think people were expecting 117 current tor reports. And since we are nearing the 6 year anniversary of two tornadoes hitting your hometown climo would certainly be supportive.

[TheWeatherPimp]

The pattern next week looks much more conducive of heavy rain and flooding than severe weather, but time will tell. Just my two cents.

[Hoosier]

The pattern next week looks much more conducive of heavy rain and flooding than severe weather, but time will tell. Just my two cents.

My thoughts exactly. Maybe a somewhat better shot at severe farther south.

[andyhb]

If we can get a phase between the northern and southern streams, something the models/ensembles come relatively close to doing here, then I could see a bigger threat. Upper jet streak associated with this feature hasn't come on shore yet, so we'll see.

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

And since we are nearing the 6 year anniversary of two tornadoes hitting your hometown climo would certainly be supportive.

Yep, hard to believe it will be six years next Monday since 3/12/2006. And also 3/8/2009--ironically also the second Sunday in March that year like 3/12/06--was also an active day here in the Springfield area as well (the town of Loami southwest of the city, which was also hit on 3/12/06, was hit by the first of two tornadoes (an F1) that year. Loami would be hit again on Aug. 19, 2009--the same day as the Williamsville tornado. Wind damage was also reported on the west and northwest sides of Springfield from that same storm, including roof damage at an apartment complex. ILX's storm reports for 3/8/2009:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ilx&storyid=22973&source=2

Very ironic timing in March 2009 for that storm--4 days removed from the 3rd anniversary of that nightmarish night here in Springfield (and in much of the Midwest).