aslkahuna Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 I think you are right about the Bz values in 2001/03- I think I saw one around -59 nT but we didn't have that data in March 1989 during a much more potent Gemag storm.. The magnetometer trace n the Gakona site went apes**t when that reversal hit. I think what may have happened is that the slower CME from the sympathetic X1 flare in region 1430 that occurred just after the X5 may have just hit. Apparently, a Full Halo has been produced by the M6.3 event that recently occurred. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 The latest 3 hr ap/Kp values are 132/7Z which is Category G3. the storm we were expecting last night is here tonight observers north of 40N should be looking now. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 This one's going to town-latest values are 179/8-. Observers north of 35N should now be looking. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 And all I could see were clouds all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Too many clouds here to see anything last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I was watching for the northern lights last night. They didn't reach as far south as they were first predicted to. People north of 44°N about (Green Bay, WI) got to see them if it was clear out of course. Aurora tracker: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 The Aurora Australis was seen in New Zealand and Tasmania. Based upon the K numbers it should have been visible further south in the US than it was but photos indicate that the bright Moon was indeed a major problem. The CME from the M6.3 is due to arrive 11/0645Z ± 7 hours for another possible round assuming that it doesn't come in at the + 7 hour mark. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Looks like the northern lights are making a bit more headway southward. People outside of Toronto and definitely Ottawa now, should be able to see them. Along with a good chunk of Maine. See link 2 posts above^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Any good tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Here's what the solar storm looked like to the MESSENGER spacecraft in orbit around Mercury: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Looks as though things are quieting down for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 10, 2012 Author Share Posted March 10, 2012 CME from the M6.3 event on the 9th is expected to arrive tonight. Meanwhile, a M8.4/XF LDE 10 Flare in region 1429 occurred at 1744Z and it was followed by a Full Halo CME-an earlier CME appears to be non Earth directed. With two possibly three CMEs on the way, the Geomagnetic field is going to be disturbed. The Moon though past Full is still a hinderance to seeing the aurora. Since we don't know the strength and polarity of the imbedded fields with a CMEs and won't until just before they hit it's not possible to tell which, if any, CME will cause storming or how strong. SWPC is going for G3 (K=7) which could range from barely above G2 (K=7-) to nearly G4 (K=7+) so observers above 40 degrees latitude (N or S) are alerted accordingly for the next three nights while those equatorward of 40 degrees should standby and monitor the gemag activity-especially the USAF network reports that come out every hour. BTW, during the brief K=8- activity with this last storm aurora was seen as far north as Latitude 33.3 degrees South-right idea but wrong Continent on my forecast that night. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Steve as always thanks for your great info and knowledge. Keeping us up to date and offering a great educational thread!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 We're an hour into the uncertainty window for this flare now. The flare should hit ACE at L1 anytime within the next 12 hours, and then an hour later it'll hit Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 3.5 hours until the center of the uncertainty window, solar wind still steadily decreasing with little oscillation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 SWPC says the CME is still to arrive as of 9 am, and they would've updated if it hit. Solar wind levels are indeed staying at low levels, though there's quite alot of oscillation in bz and bt. Kp has stayed below 3. Still goes we have a long way to go in forecasting these things if we missed a forecast by 17 hours now. 2012-03-11 15:07 UTC Solar Radiation Storm Declining, Awaiting Geomagnetic Storm The coronal mass ejection associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout that occurred at 0353 UTC March 9 (10:53 p.m. EST March 8) was expected to cause more geomagnetic storming beginning early on March 11, with intensities likely to reach the G3 (Strong) level. That CME hasn’t arrived as early as predicted, so stay tuned for updates as the day progresses. The coronal mass ejection associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout event from 1744 UTC March 10 (12:44 p.m. EST March 10) should start to affect Earth late on March 12 to early on March 13, with intensities lower than those observed with the events of last week; forecast specifics are still in work. Meanwhile, the Solar Radiation Storm continues its decay and is currently at the S1 (Minor) level. Region 1429 remains complex, but is showing signs of weakening. Updates here as conditions warrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 It's starting to appear like the CME missed and just gave us a glancing blow. Who knows what happened to it between the sun and earth. Next CME is forecast to hit tomorrow around lunchtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 It's starting to appear like the CME missed and just gave us a glancing blow. Who knows what happened to it between the sun and earth. Next CME is forecast to hit tomorrow around lunchtime. That's what makes forecasting these things so much "fun". Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Do they have a way of tracking these things? Since it missed, where did it go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Do they have a way of tracking these things? Since it missed, where did it go? Aside from spacecraft equipped to detect the solar wind like ACE at L1 and the Mars Science Laboratory on its way to Mars, I don't think we have any way of seeing where CMEs are in space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Saw this on Facebook. Can anyone tell me what this is? Looks interesting! Some sort of magnetic feature? http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/latest.php?t=aia_0171&r=512 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 The CME expected to hit around noon arrived earlier than expected. Geomagnetic storm underway, Kp = 6. Looks like we'll have to wait for the next aurora show in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 M7 event in region 1429 still ongoing. A new proton event has begun and a new Polar Cap Absorption event is now beginning. The location pf the region is unfavorable for any geoeffective CME unless it develops a strong backwards component. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Thanks for keeping us updated guys. Not an expert at all and there are little to know forecasts for these types of events so thanks for breaking it down in layman's terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 CME from the M7 solar flare is forecast to hit midnight +/- 7 hours. http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20120313_185500_anim.tim-den.gif The radiation storm from the flare is continuing so ACE solar wind measurements are down for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Solar activity is subsiding now as the big sunspot goes over the sun's limb, might be quiet for a little awhile. CME hit yesterday as expected, but hit at the exact wrong time for the US to have any shot at seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 16, 2012 Author Share Posted March 16, 2012 Aurora Australis seen in New Zealand. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 heliophysics has advanced by leaps and bounds in the last 10-15 years so that is not a factual statement, as this thread proves. My point was there is no quick source for the average joe that doesn't really understand it all. Which is why I come to this thread to get an idea of what is going on. The users in here to do a great job summarizing and explaining events as they unfold. I realize the the field itself has made great strides the last 10-15 years. Chillax man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 17, 2012 Author Share Posted March 17, 2012 Region 1429 has left the visible disk. My local observations did not show very much except for one reasonably bright area of Plage and a smallish prominence which showed up in a photo I took which was degraded by passing cirrus clouds. We have a storm coming in so observations will not be possible for the next three to four days. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Region 1429 which produced high levels of activity on its disk transit earlier this month is about to rotate around the limb. This region produced several large CMEs on its backside transit and two high C-clss events have been observed from it already. Our local observations showed an active prominence region with bright limb surging in the area where the region should be with an active filament already on the disk ahead of it. Until it rotates into view we won't know its full potential but it's relatively uncommon for a highly active region to be as active second time around. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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