eekuasepinniW Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 What are clouds supposed to be like tonight in NH? I can't wait for this... Solid but thin veil of clouds here. Moon is shining through and backlighting them, doing a wonderful job of sabotaging things. Satellite doesn't look too encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Solid but thin veil of clouds here. Moon is shining through and backlighting them, doing a wonderful job of sabotaging things. Satellite doesn't look too encouraging. Yeah. It wouldn't surprised me if weather screwed us one more time in 2012 lol. Its fair here, but you can see the darkness. KP still at a 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knitwx Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Most certainly, this will cause a SSWE, drive both the AO and the NAO into deep negative territory, and bring about the immediate demise of La Nina. And above all else, this is the event the Mayan's were talking about. You do know that a corner of the tablet with the prophecy of the Elders is missing and no one really knows what the true prophechy is don't you? I know you are joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Updated at: 2012 Mar 05 2200 UTC Class M - 0-24 hours 75%, 24-48 hours 75% Class X - 0-24 hours 30%, 24-48 hours 30% Updated numbers are now M Class- 85% ↑ X-Class- 40% ↑ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 OMG! Totally just took this picture from my apartment in Plymouth!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Looks like this will end like 99% of Aurora alert events. No lights for you, Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Looks like this will end like 99% of Aurora alert events. No lights for you, Next. A little early for such rhetoric, nothing has indicated that the solar wave hit the Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I dont think it was even suppose to hit yet Looks like this will end like 99% of Aurora alert events. No lights for you, Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Fail? K #s keep dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 SWPC updated their impact time to 06-10Z so we can't say it's a bust yet. When it hits ACE we'll know its magnetic polarity (has to be negative in the Z component) but that will be only 15 minutes before it hits us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Looks like this will end like 99% of Aurora alert events. No lights for you, Next. LOL at crying bust on an Aurora light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 It has just arrived but the polarity right now is strongly north pointing which is not good. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I'm hoping to see some northern lights tonight from this here in Michigan, it's been years since I have seen anything good here. They are usually white here, while people a couple hundred miles north get more of a green color on lake superior shoreline areas. The last big display I saw was when there was a meteor shower going on at the same time, saw about 10 "shooting stars" while watching the epic display of northern lights. On a related front, a meteorite once went thru the roof of my neighbors house in 1994 called the Coleman Meteorite... he was a janitor at the time in my high school, the brother of my auto shop teacher... sadly i slept thru the flash and boom of it although my dad was awake at the time and saw the sky light up and heard the boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 so is this a bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 so is this a bust? it just hit earth around 5am EST.... tonight should still be good for auroras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 here's a youtube video from nasa to watch the flare when it happened for fun, not too exciting though lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 it just hit earth around 5am EST.... tonight should still be good for auroras a quick glance at the solar wind makes it pretty clear that it's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 a quick glance at the solar wind makes it pretty clear that it's not happening. well thank you very much debbie downer, i will post some pics / video if i see anything tonight..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 This is pretty much a bust for my area. Higher latitudes near Canada might see something though. Even the solar wind was lower than expected at 700km/sec, compared to the modeled 890km/sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 If you are out checking the sky during the evening hours, note the conjunction of Venus and Jupiter high in the southwest after sunset and visible to about 8:30 p.m. ... Venus is the brighter of the two ... the closest approach will be on 14th and 15th. Already quite a sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 If you are out checking the sky during the evening hours, note the conjunction of Venus and Jupiter high in the southwest after sunset and visible to about 8:30 p.m. ... Venus is the brighter of the two ... the closest approach will be on 14th and 15th. Already quite a sight. nice to know I love watching venus and jupiter (and mars), what is that guys name on pbs that says all the star formations, his piece rocks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 Sadly, we had the CME equivalent of the High Risk SPC day that busts because the cap didn't break. In this case the CME hit but the polarity was northward pointing which essentially caps the Gemag activity. So unless we get a swing in the polarity to southward pointing and a good substorm we are through for this one. About evening sky, aside from Venus and Jupiter in the West, we have Mars in the eastern sky as the sun sets and Saturn rises later in the evening. Region 1429 has grown into an Ekc group and is still reverse polarity but some weakening of the magnetic structure has occurred. About the CME polarity, although it's very important, we currently can't know what it is until the CME passes ACE and SOHO about 30 minutes before we get since it requires in-situ mwasurements and we have no way of doing that closer to the Sun. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Sadly, we had the CME equivalent of the High Risk SPC day that busts because the cap didn't break. In this case the CME hit but the polarity was northward pointing which essentially caps the Gemag activity. So unless we get a swing in the polarity to southward pointing and a good substorm we are through for this one. About evening sky, aside from Venus and Jupiter in the West, we have Mars in the eastern sky as the sun sets and Saturn rises later in the evening. Region 1429 has grown into an Ekc group and is still reverse polarity but some weakening of the magnetic structure has occurred. About the CME polarity, although it's very important, we currently can't know what it is until the CME passes ACE and SOHO about 30 minutes before we get since it requires in-situ mwasurements and we have no way of doing that closer to the Sun. Steve Thanks for information, Steve. Was the polarity of the CME pointing north? Or was the polarity of the earth's magnetic field pointing north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Thanks for information, Steve. Was the polarity of the CME pointing north? Or was the polarity of the earth's magnetic field pointing north? Earths Magnetic field is always pointing north. Or at least I'd hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 The sunspot AR1429 is so large it can be seen with the naked eye. This beast will continue its asult of X5 blasting. Great set of pictures provided in the link below. http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=David-Tremblay-0B7V4805-imp_1331217388.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 The sunspot AR1429 is so large it can be seen with the naked eye. This beast will continue its asult of X5 blasting. Great set of pictures provided in the link below. http://spaceweather...._1331217388.jpg Strong M-class event in progress right now. As far as big flares are concerned, size matters far less than magnetic complexity, gradients and shear. The most intense flare producers are the D,E, and F groups with a kc MacIntosh rating which means a very complex penumbra and a compact spot distribution. Being reversed polarity helps too. When it fired off the X5 1429 was a Dkc Beta-Gamma-Delta reverse polarity group with an area of some 800 millionths-now it's an Ekc B-G-D of about 1200 millionths but is starting to open up with some weakening of the magnetic gradient and shear. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 The sunspot AR1429 is so large it can be seen with the naked eye. This beast will continue its asult of X5 blasting. Great set of pictures provided in the link below. http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=David-Tremblay-0B7V4805-imp_1331217388.jpg I keep staring at the S^bhhjjn)!-/$/&$/$2....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Guess what? The polarity has gone to southward pointing and we are at Category G2. Observers north of 45 N have a chance now and if we can squeeze out a G3 observers north of 40N may also. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Wow to be able to see a sunspot with the naked eye is downright incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Guess what? The polarity has gone to southward pointing and we are at Category G2. Observers north of 45 N have a chance now and if we can squeeze out a G3 observers north of 40N may also. Steve I think this is the most abrupt reversal I've ever seen on these graphs. Almost thought it was data error at first glance. Do you know what the lowest Bz numbers ever recorded are? I vaguely seem to recall -50's somewhere in the 2001-2003 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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