aslkahuna Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Region 1429 which has just rotated onto the visible disk is a Dkc Beta-Gamma-Delta group and possibly with reverse polarity. It has produced two M-class events and appears capable of X-class activity as it transits the disk. Arthritis permitting I'll take a look at this one tomorrow as it definitely bears watching. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 5, 2012 Author Share Posted March 5, 2012 X1,1/2B flare in region 1429 earlier today. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Well at least somone within 93 million miles is getting some interesting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 That is one big Spot http://spaceweather....i4096_blank.jpg As it rotates into Earth view, these percentages are rather high. Updated at: 2012 Mar 05 2200 UTC Class M - 0-24 hours 75%, 24-48 hours 75% Class X - 0-24 hours 30%, 24-48 hours 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Massive flare ongoing...X5 and still rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 Peaked at X5.4 and is still at X2.5. This is an R3 event. Of course a flare off this intensity results in more than just a radio blackout. We have te potential for GPS signal problems, phase anomalies with LORAN and high levels of radio noise interfering with tracking radars, and reception of satellite signals especially now that we are in the Solar interference period.I was just looking at the Sun about 2-1/2 hours ago and 1429 is mean looking even in white light The penumbra covers almost the entire region with multiple polarities within it for a strong delta configuration. Magnetograms showed a strong gradient and magnetic shear across region center and it is strongly reverse polarity. I took some photos but the seeing is poor today due to winds and high level turbulence. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 A photo showing region 1429 2 hours before the X5 event. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Any Chance this can get the Northern Lights down to the Philly region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 Any Chance this can get the Northern Lights down to the Philly region? Philly is no place for looking for the Aurora-you need to be in a dark location north of the city. That said, an Importance 3 Type II sweep burst began at bthe same time as the flare so there's a high speed shock running through the corona right now-i.e. a CME. SOHO should pick it up soon then we'll know if it's Full halo or not If it is, a chance exists for strong GEMAG activity. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Philly is no place for looking for the Aurora-you need to be in a dark location north of the city. That said, an Importance 3 Type II sweep burst began at bthe same time as the flare so there's a high speed shock running through the corona right now-i.e. a CME. SOHO should pick it up soon then we'll know if it's Full halo or not If it is, a chance exists for strong GEMAG activity. Steve I am WSW of Philadelphia, and my sky is pretty dark and surrounding area is not totally light polluted. So I really hope I get to see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 Sympathetic X1.3/0F flare in region 1430 at 0114Z also had a Type II burst. CME seen by SOHO and analysis is underway to determine possible impact. Proton fluxes rising again so a radiation event is likely to start soon. CME from the 4th has arrived and we have a negative Bz. Expect that the gemag field will be disturbed wiith periods of storming the next three days. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 Proton event is now starting with the >10 and >100 MeV flux levels now at event threshold and still rising as CME number one has arrived. The HAARP Riometer is showing strong absorption indicative of a Polar Cap Absorption event (PCA) which will adversely affect HF communications on transpolar paths. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 I;m trying to follow but what does this mean exactly? Interference with GPS and radio waves or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 I;m trying to follow but what does this mean exactly? Interference with GPS and radio waves or what? Here's a couple of sites that offer information. http://www.spaceweather.com/ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Boom. Most certainly, this will cause a SSWE, drive both the AO and the NAO into deep negative territory, and bring about the immediate demise of La Nina. And above all else, this is the event the Mayan's were talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 Arrival time of the CME from the X5 event is 08/0625Z ± 7 hours which is a good time for the US. SWPC going for strong to severe storming (at least G3/K=7) which given short period intensity variability means that observers should be on the lookout for auroral activity in most of the 48. The USAF magnetometer reports are good for monitoring these variations but they read higher than the Boulder network used for determining storm category because they have more high latitude stations which respond more strongly to storming. Unfortunately, the Moon is Full at 4:19 AM tomorrow but observers in the northern tier were able to see the aurora clearly despite the bright Moon last night. Remember the two main rules of aurora watching-1. Sleep is not an option-given the wide window and the character of gemag storms one may need to monitor the sky all night, 2. Get out of the cities-find the darkest location you can north of the citiy place the skyglow to your south. Good Luck and Good Seeing. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Arrival time of the CME from the X5 event is 08/0625Z ± 7 hours which is a good time for the US. SWPC going for strong to severe storming (at least G3/K=7) which given short period intensity variability means that observers should be on the lookout for auroral activity in most of the 48. The USAF magnetometer reports are good for monitoring these variations but they read higher than the Boulder network used for determining storm category because they have more high latitude stations which respond more strongly to storming. Unfortunately, the Moon is Full at 4:19 AM tomorrow but observers in the northern tier were able to see the aurora clearly despite the bright Moon last night. Remember the two main rules of aurora watching-1. Sleep is not an option-given the wide window and the character of gemag storms one may need to monitor the sky all night, 2. Get out of the cities-find the darkest location you can north of the citiy place the skyglow to your south. Good Luck and Good Seeing. Steve you really think the auroras could get down to 30-32 degrees?? Also, can they tighten up the arrival window, or is that the best we'll get until it hits?? thanks for the updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 I wish the CME wasn't quite so lopsided but it's still pretty healthy looking. Camera batteries charged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 A link showing the current activity: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/ Note that the model produces bad forecasts (whatever that means) when the proton level is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 I wish the CME wasn't quite so lopsided but it's still pretty healthy looking. Camera batteries charged. Do you think we have a good shot tonight?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 you really think the auroras could get down to 30-32 degrees?? Also, can they tighten up the arrival window, or is that the best we'll get until it hits?? thanks for the updates. Sorry about the window but that's the best we can do right now-a year ago it was by guess and by golly. If we get a strong substorm imbedded in the main storm (which will show up in the USAF network data but probably not the Boulder network data) we could get a short period of K=8 or 9 which would result in in a short burst of auroral activity to low latitudes-we could also get stronger than the forecast G3 event which is still good for aurbo down to 40N. The folks at Spaceweather.com even agree as they are calling for observers in all latitudes to watch tonight. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Do you think we have a good shot tonight?? If the CME doesn't arrive too late then yeah it could get pretty interesting. This looks more promising than the previous few events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 General rule of thumb, it can flux back and forth for short periods of time southward of this level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 Should be noted that map does not show the lower latitude limit of visibility for the aurora but the lower latitude limit of the equatorward boundary of the auroral oval. A big aurora can extend to an altitude of as much as 1000 km which means that for a K=9 the aurora can be seen as far south as southward of Florida-which has indeed happened with K=9 storms in the past. North of that red line observers may see aurora SOUTH of their zenith which has also happened in the past. During a storm which hit K=9 in 2001, we observed and photographed auroral rays extending to an elevation angle of 60 degrees while the March 1989 event was visible in Central America and HI and the Carrington event was a fully global aurora visible even at the equator. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Should be noted that map does not show the lower latitude limit of visibility for the aurora but the lower latitude limit of the equatorward boundary of the auroral oval. A big aurora can extend to an altitude of as much as 1000 km which means that for a K=9 the aurora can be seen as far south as southward of Florida-which has indeed happened with K=9 storms in the past. North of that red line observers may see aurora SOUTH of their zenith which has also happened in the past. During a storm which hit K=9 in 2001, we observed and photographed auroral rays extending to an elevation angle of 60 degrees while the March 1989 event was visible in Central America and HI and the Carrington event was a fully global aurora visible even at the equator. Steve So Steve can you break it down to the best visible locations currently by your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Most certainly, this will cause a SSWE, drive both the AO and the NAO into deep negative territory, and bring about the immediate demise of La Nina. And above all else, this is the event the Mayan's were talking about. lolwut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 If the CME doesn't arrive too late then yeah it could get pretty interesting. This looks more promising than the previous few events. What are clouds supposed to be like tonight in NH? I can't wait for this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 What are clouds supposed to be like tonight in NH? I can't wait for this... http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/astro/clds_vis_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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